Looked to me like there were only 2 Grade 1 animals in the Arc there - miles clear of the rest. It will be interesting to see what the jockeys say about the ground, I thought Minnie Hauk was home and hosed but just got nabbed in a dour last half furlong.
Another stat for Barney. Long time since a horse finished second in the Arc and won it the following year
Well I never saw Daryz coming. His early season form would not have seen him as a serious contender but fair play to the trainer for getting him to peak at the right time. Listening to Graffard before the race I knew that Quisisana was very much the second string and that Daryz was the stable number 1. Probably why she drifted late on after seeing support yesterday. It was low numbers that dominated and I don't know why Sosie ended up so far off the pace from a good draw. He seemed to drop back badly in the early stages and stayed on for a never nearer 3rd. 1,2,3,5 draws filled the first four places. Aventure was bitterly disappointing and she drifted like a boat in the betting today. As for Kalpana she ran OK but probably hasn't come forward much this year. A lot more ran poorly than well today. Byzantine Dream ran well from box 15 and I think he can be proud of his effort albeit at a fair distance behind the first two. Probably would have been third if drawn lower. Minnie Hauk deserves a lot of credit having begun the season with a fairly modest rating and winning some ugly races before going on to progress into a serious contender for the Arc. She nearly pulled it off. Overall though, I think there was a fair amount of dross in this year's Arc and I have yet to see any 2yo who might develop into an Arc contender next season. I had to laugh at Johnnie Murtagh tipping up Aventure with the reasoning that she has strengthened up from two to three. Did they sneak her into the Arc as a 2YO then?
I guess that difference of opinion does make horse races. I have to disagree with you entirely. I do not think there were any Grade 1 animals in the race. The two three year olds that filled the first two places came into the race rated as very ordinary in what has been an ordinary year. Minnie Hauk beat an ordinary bunch of three year old fillies to win two Classics. I cannot have it that Daryz, the horse that ran so abysmally in the Juddmonte International, has suddenly become a top class performer by stepping up two furlongs on soft ground. Having seen the replay several times, I am still trying to figure out what the actual plan was for several of the fancied runners. Okay, so it rained during the running of the race but that has happened before. On very soft ground when the finishers in a race are widely spaced apart that is often more an indication of some getting stuck in the mud while others loved it.
For me Minnie Hauk is clearly a Group 1 horse - she has won 3 Oaks (all group 1) and finished 2nd in an Arc. This was the first time Daryz tried 12 furlongs and he is clearly very ground dependent. 10 furlongs on gd-fm at York clearly not his cup of tea. It will be interesting to see if he stays in training but if he does, I’m sure they will stay at 12 furlongs with some ease in the ground.
This is spot on. It’s remarkable that people are still crabbing what Minnie Hauk’s ability is. She’s an excellent horse who has shown herself on all types of ground. The front two pulled nicely clear of Sosie who is a good yardstick after last seasons Arc. Daryz has beaten her, but that’s to Daryz credit, he relished the ground and we don’t know how good he is. Both should be given plenty of credit and not crabbed. Will we see either next season? If so, that will be the key time to understand their level of ability.
I prefer facts myself. In the top ten rated horses in the world there are only three members of the Classic generation: Field Of Gold and Sovereignty (127) plus Delacroix (126). Derby winner Lambourn is rated 120 behind deceased Guineas winner Ruling Court (121). Minnie Hauk went into the Arc rated 118. Since Epsom, how many races have the nine runners won? (Minnie Hauk 2 of 3, Whirl 2 of 3, Desert Flower 0 of 0, Wemightakedlongway 0 of 3, Giselle 0 of 0, Revoir 0 of 4, Elwateen 0 of 2, Qilin Queen 1 of 3, Go Go Boots 0 of 2) In the Irish Oaks, four of the seven runners came from Ballydoyle and Minnie Hauk beat second favourite Wemightakedlongway and it was 20/1 bar two. In the Yorkshire Oaks she beat three rivals – one her pacemaker, Qilin Queen was a remote last and runner up Estrange declined Sunday’s rematch. That saw her rating upped by 1lb from her Epsom 117 mark. Daryz has five career victories, four at Longchamp: three at ten furlongs – a maiden, a five runner conditions race and a five runner Listed race – plus Sunday. He also beat Bay City Roller three quarters of a length in the six runner Prix Eugene Adam at Saint Cloud. Sosie was more than four lengths fourth in the 2024 Arc off a rating of 118. This year he won the six runner Prix Ganay and six runner Prix d’Ispahan over ten furlongs, was last in the Eclipse after trying to make all and was second in the Prix Foy before starting the Arc off a rating of 120. So he was only beaten a length further than last year off a 2lb higher rating. Only five of the horses that started on Sunday appear in the top 40 rated horses in the world: Los Angeles on 123 (joint thirteenth in the world) was highest rated. Will either of them stay in training or run again this year? Frankel filly Minnie Hauk will probably head to the paddocks as a Classic winner. Sea The Stars colt Daryz is out of Daryakana, her seventh foal to see a racecourse; and has only had seven starts. Last year’s Arc winner Bluestocking, winner of two Group 1 races from four contested that season before the big race, ended up with a rating of 122 for her victory. That would appear to indicate that last year’s race was not a brilliant renewal either. Millions of Euros of prize money cannot make up for a lack of high calibre horses to contest them.
I agree the form doesn't look great but when Daryz was sent to England, connections were told he wouldn't win but needed a prep zace. I wouldn't be surprised if Timeform ratings for the first 2 are upped significantly because if you look at the ground conditions and times of all races on the day, I was surprised to see that the time for the Arc was 2m 29.17s (fast by 0.23s). Also, Minnie Hauk's time in the Yorkshire Oaks on fast ground was 2m 26.67s (fast by 2.23s). That proves she can act on any going and can win whether it is a strong gallop or not (Epsom Oaks and Cheshire Oaks slow times). Last year's second Aventure beaten 10½l this year and Los Angeles btn 22¼l, the former weakening 1f out and the latter weakening 2f out, presumably because of the fast time in very soft ground This year's Arc was run in a faster time on softer ground than last year so one could easily argue that this year the first 2 were way above all of last year's It would not surprise me at all if one of those 2 run in next year's Arc and probably win it
Ratings are not facts. The opinion of racing that the top horses in the world were not in the Arc is not a fact. Similarly collateral form doesn’t always account to true ability, the Oaks form hasn’t worked out as you’ve stated, but that doesn’t mean the winner isn’t a very good horse. Sometimes I prefer to just enjoy what I’ve seen, rather than try and draw lines that let’s face it, doesn’t change the fact that Daryz is an Arc winner and Minnie Hauk is a triple Oaks winner.
It is a shame that we do not have access to any sectional times for the Arc. Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once... My suspicion is that early leader Hotazhell (drawn 11) and the Japanese horse Croix Du Nord (drawn 17) that led for a long way might have been going too fast and effectively set the race up for the horses held up. On the video of the race, they cover the first 1400m in 1:28.06 (it shows that time with 1000m to go on a caption) and the speed indicator in the bottom left corner showed the speed as between 55kph (34mph) and 61kph (38mph) much of the time. In the first couple of furlongs the speed showed between 56kph (35mph) and 65kph (40mph) as everyone tried to find their positions. The slowest part of the race was in the false straight when I think the front two were starting to give out. This would also explain why so many of the ‘fancied’ runners never got into the race. Los Angeles tried to track the leaders and finished stone last but the runner up was on his inside as they turned into the false straight. He was being pushed along at the home turn where they were going 59kph whilst the Oaks winner was still travelling. The time with 400m to go showed 2:05.48 on a caption so if that is accurate then they covered the last 400m in 23.69 seconds, which obviously averages at 60kph (38mph). Unfortunately the speed indicator disappears from the video inside the final furlong so we cannot tell whether they were slowing towards the finish as the main pack all converged to fight over third with third to eighth being covered by little more than a length. As they cross the ‘200m’ line on the video the time shows 2:16.7 and at the ‘100m’ line the time shows as 2:22.7 so for a final official time of 2:29.17 they covered the last hundred metres in 6.47 seconds, which would be about 55kph (34mph) suggesting they were slowing at the line as the average over the last 400m is higher. Of course that is a very dodgy form of VAR based on me freeze framing the video and the TV people having transposed the distance lines in the right places!
The top rated horse in the world (by a system that you do not accept) is Ombudsman, the horse that has finished in front of the first and the third from the Arc as well as the 2000 Guineas and Prix Du Jockey Club winners this season, so clearly collateral form is nonsense. I am fascinated by your concept of a triple Oaks winner. Surely that is a quadruple Oaks winner? Does the Cheshire Oaks not qualify because it was not a Group 1 race? I would accept the notion of a dual Oaks winner since both the Epsom Oaks (The Oaks) and the Irish Oaks are recognised as Classics, only open to the Classic generation (three year olds). The Yorkshire Oaks has been open to older horses for thirty years; however, just like the version run on the Roodeye it is just a name. Do you consider Enable to be a quadruple or quintuple Oaks winner? (Cheshire, Epsom, Irish, Yorkshire x 2)
And yet Ombudsman would likely have been stone last or pulled up yesterday. So there is more to it than just numbers.
Also it’s ironic you’ve gone for Enable here, who beat Cloth Of Stars in her first Arc, a horse who had been beaten 5 times prior to the Arc. She then did the same in her second, yet I doubt many would doubt that she was one of the best race mares of the last decade.
Whatever the sectionals were, to achieve that overall time in that ground was pretty exceptional and horses that ran OK last year were found out. Had the race been run at a slower pace there might well have been a diiferent result but it wouldn't have told us how good the winner was. It would merely have told us who had the best acceleration over a short distance. It isn't that much different from human racing where in the big races the one who is capable of getting from A to B the in the quickest time will win if the race is not marred by tactics My personal feelings before the race was that Minnie Hauk hadn't beaten much but yesterday she proved what she was actually capable of Don't forget, the "great" Sea The Stars didn't beat much and not by far either, unless one regards Fame and Glory, Master Craftsman and Rip van Winkle as top class
Yes, heard that on the ITV coverage. Tony Bin, wasn't it??? Have added that one to the list!!! Very interesting as the Grand National has a very similar one. Namely - the last Grand National runner-up to win the race 12 months later was Red Rum in 1977 - the formline of the last 11 to try is -F9U0UFP0UP0. Is it something about these top, top races that 'sour' horses and stop them putting their best foot forward (or even repeating what they did a year previously) in the future??? Or in the case of the GN does the handicapper have a massive over-reaction and simply impost them out of future runnings??? The long running stat that would now appear redundant is horses winning the Arc on their first step up to 12 furlongs. Happened in 1990 but then not again until 2023. However, also occured in '25 so such a scenario now appears a positive rather than a negative!!! Moving forward the 2 real eyecatchers are that (i) 15 out of the last 20 winners were drawn in the 6 lowest stalls and (ii) 8 out of the last 10 winners had Urban Sea in their pedigree. In '26 do we simply wait for the draw to be made and then apply these 2 points???
I would be interested to know how you have reached that conclusion. I guess it is possible that he might not stay the trip, which could mean that he was eased down and allowed to come home in his own time. He won the Prix Prince d’Orange on officially soft ground at Longchamp last year, which would suggest that he can handle easy ground. It is my understanding that his next port of call is the Champion Stakes, almost certain to be run on easy ground. The fact that they ran a pacemaker for him at York after the Eclipse debacle would appear to indicate that a strongly run race would benefit him. After Sandown he was rated 127 and achieved 128 on the Knavesmire.
I mentioned Enable because she was relevant to the point that I was trying to make about ‘multiple’ Oaks winners. Was either of Enable’s Arc victories her best performance in either season? The way that ratings work, horses do not get re-rated downwards based on one performance. That is why we have horses such as Goliath that have a ridiculously high rating based on what was clearly one fluke performance that the horse has subsequently failed to emulate. When she won the Arc as a three year old in 2017 she was already rated 126 from her King George VI win and did not better that at Chantilly. She first achieved her 128 rating by beating Crystal Ocean three and a half lengths on the Kempton kitty litter in the 2018 September Stakes and matched it at Longchamp before winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf, going unbeaten in three races that year. She matched that rating finishing second to Waldgeist in the 2019 Arc but in her final season in 2020, her rating of 128 never changed for her four races, culminating in sixth behind Sottsass in the Arc, where it is reasonable to conclude that she ran well below it.
