I had a go at predicting how Leeds may do this season ... I reckon 41 points is achievable, but the way the season has started it may not be enough? What do you reckon?
I predicted us to get 33 points. On the prediction thread I did, out of the 11 entries only 4 predictions had us getting 40 points or more. Given how the season has started my prediction of staying up on 33 points is most likely way out Now usually 40 points would see a club lose somewhere between 16-20 games a season (just based on a quick glance over last 4 seasons). You have us down as losing 14. I don't consider 41 points to be an unreasonable prediction given our start, although it's probably a bit too early to use our form as a reliable prediction method so far. I would say Billy that you have probably been a bit conservative with your individual match predictions, going with the number of draws. Turn 2 of those draws into wins and 4 of those draws into defeats, and we still end up with the same points outcome, whilst having a more statistical balance to the outcome of games. Whether that is enough based on where we are in the season is too early to say, but I would take a lot more comfort from us getting 41 points and losing 18 games, than 41 points losing only 14 games I would say our first target is to get at least 10 wins. Of the 78 clubs relegated from the EPL since 1999/2000 season, 72 of them have failed to get 10 wins. Of the 6 teams that did get relegated with 10 wins, then the 3 that have been the most unfortunate are Sheffield Utd in 2006 with 10 wins 8 draws, Blackpool in 2010 with 10 wins 9 draws and West Ham in 2002 with 10 wins 12 draws. Try doing all the games and see how our 41 points pans out when compared to other clubs https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ At the end of the day, I would still say that 40 points is a starting point to staying up. If we ended up being relegated with more than that, then it would still mean we had been competitive if not quite good enough.
I take a bit of comfort from there being 5 teams below us. and Fulham should be, if we’d got the result against them we deserved. Instead they are level with us.
I would take 41 points now and take our chances. Far too early to read much into results. It’ll be half way mark when table will take realistic shape
