2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

I think, at this point, I'm contractually obliged (my forum stipend could be at risk if I don't) to put up the trends / stats for this race. So here are the ones that I've got listed -

No horse since Star Appeal, in 1975, has won The Arc in the same season as running in a handicap (he was beaten, on his seasonal bow, at Cologne).

Japanese trained runners are 0/33 in the race.

Since 1991 only 1 Arc winner was having its first run at the trip - 1/30 since 1991.

18 of the last 22 winners of the race had run between 21 and 29 days prior to the Arc.

16 of the last 19 winners of the Arc, run at Longchamp, broke from a single figure draw - 14 of these were no wider than stall 6.

No St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same season - 0/10 so far this century (formline -5070040735).

7 out of the last 9 winners of the Arc had Urban Sea in their pedigree.

Only 1 horse has won the Prix du Jockey Club and then gone on to win the Arc, in their 3YO season, since 2004.

No 6YO has ever won the Arc.

Aidan O'Brien is 2/58 in the race.

The last Arc scorer with winning form over 14 furlongs, or beyond, was Gold River in 1981.

Andre Fabre has trained the winner of the Arc 8 times since 1987.

Just 1 out of the last 5 winners of the Arc ran, at Longchamp, on Arc Trials Day.

Fillies and mares have won 10 out of the last 17 runnings of the race.

A quick couple of points to bear in mind re the above - (i) obviously, there is no reigning St Leger champ going this year and (ii) Arc trials day has now been slightly moved in the calendar.

But which ones will be enhanced in '25 and which will fall by the old wayside??? That's the great conundrum for punters to unravel and predict.

 

Interesting. It's amazing how many can have a case made for them. I've not even looked at those 2 so that's another 2 to look at. I wonder how many others I haven't looked at are in with a good chance

I think I'm coming to the conclusion that this is now a no bet race. With the ground looking to be relatively fast, I just wish Regaleira was in the field

Will still be a must watch race. Will we be able to call the winner 2f out? I doubt it.

 

Surprised the number of 5yo mares hasn't cropped up Barney

Interesting about Urban Sea. Were there any qualifiers in the other 2 years and are there any this year (sorry, being lazy i know)

 

Right. For the sake of interest while watching the race I have plumped for the following

10 points win Aventure (9/2 available) and Minnie Hauk at 4/1 general
1 point place Los Angeles and Quisisana both available at 33/1

That's it

 

As expected, one horse was supplemented Wednesday morning, Minnie Hauk, so there will be a field of eighteen or fewer on Sunday.

According to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities rankings, Byzantine Dream is rated 121, Croix Du Nord is rated 120 and Alohi Alii must be rated 119 or lower as the World’s Best Horse rankings stop at 120. The top rated entry remaining in the Arc is Los Angeles on 123 (Ballydoyle’s original intended runner).

The current top rated horse in the world is Ombudsman (128) followed by Field Of Gold (127) joint with Japanese horse Forever Young and Godolphin’s American star Sovereignty.

Note that these rankings were last updated on 7th September so will not reflect races run since that date.

 

I cant have the Japanese horses at all, I think if theyre going to win it they will need to come with one of their real superstars like Almond Eye or Equinox, none of their runners this year are in that top tier. Croix Du Nord has a good CV, winning the Hopeful, 2nd in the Guineas and winning the Derby but not sure how strong the crop is, theres only been a couple of lengths between 4 or 5 horses and as far as im aware, none of them have stepped up to win in open company yet. And now weve seen him over here scraping in a pretty weak G3 I cant see him being good enough.

Cant have Minnie Hauk either, she looks a one paced grinder to me, and her form doesnt look great, she was off the bridle and going nowhere 3 out in a very poor Irish Oaks, it wasnt an Enable performance, she had a perfect setup in York with her pacemaker making sure it was an end to end gallop, also think Whirl ought to have won the Oaks if she was ridden on merit. Shes good but better Oaks winners than her have come up short in the Arc and I just dont think shes the right type.

Kalpana is a bit of a dog, she came there cantering all over Whirl in the Pretty Polly and downed tools, same thing again at Kempton, she has the ability to run top 4 or 5 but I struggle to see how she can possibly be the one finishing best in a competitive field like this, I think shed be better off in the Prix De Lopera or Fillies and Mares at Ascot.

Aventure is a standout for me, she has everything you want in an Arc horse, travels and quickens, and her form in the Arc and Vermielle last year sets the standard imo, she looks a stronger filly now, and I think she will take some beating from any draw.

Gezora 16/1 and Quisisana 33/1 look overpriced for Graffard.

 

Those ratings just about sum up the state of affairs

 

Yep the % win success for 5YO mares is going to be low with only 2 ever obliging (1937 and 2022). I haven't got the figure for the number that have run in the race, over the years, but its going to be a sizeable number. In fact if you say 'since 1938' then you are looking at just 1 winner from quite some number of runners.

In '25 the horses with Urban Sea are, by my reckoning, Giavellotta, Aventure, Minnie Hauk, Sosie, Daryz, Estrange, Quisisana, White Birch and Arrow Eagle (9). It will be quite something it one of these on this list wins, this term, as that will take the old girl to 80% over the past decade.

The unveiling of the draw the next key ingredient - who will get the lowest 6 stalls?!?

 

We know the theory about the draw for the Arc, so what can we glean from the field if viewed in draw order and the latest odds:

1 Minnie Hauk (Christophe Soumillon) 4/1
2 Daryz (Mickael Barzalona) 14/1
3 Sosie (Stephane Pasquier) 12/1
4 Alohi Alii (Christophe Lemaire) 18/1
5 Giavellotto (Andrea Atzeni) 40/1
6 Leffard (Cristian Demuro) 50/1
7 Quisisana (Alexis Pouchin) 33/1
8 Cualificar (William Buick) 14/1
9 White Birch (Dylan Browne McMonagle) 40/1
10 Kalpana (Colin Keane) 10/1
11 Hotazhell (Shane Foley) 100/1
12 Aventure (Maxime Guyon) 9/2
13 Gezora (Tom Marquand) 16/1
14 Los Angeles (Wayne Lordan) 33/1
15 Byzantine Dream (Oisin Murphy) 11/1
16 Arrow Eagle (Ioritz Mendizabal) 100/1
17 Croix Du Nord (Yuichi Kitamura) 12/1
18 Estrange (Danny Tudhope) 16/1

That looks terminal for a couple of the Japanese runners with them being out in the forest; and is the one draw good news for the Oaks winner? It will depend on what tactics Soumillon has in mind. Interesting that Maxime Guyon has stuck with Aventure rather than Sosie, although I am not sure whether the jockeys are declared before the draw is made or after it; however, I like to think that he picked the one that he thought had the better chance. I wonder what William Buick will do tactically as he has three unfancied (in betting terms) horses on his inside.

 

I don't see why the wide draw is so terminal if the horse is good enough. Apart from tha final bend when they should have sorted themselves out, take the shortest route round the bends, make progress on the straight bits and come 3 wide on the final bend. There you go

 

Estrange out - dirty scope

 

Amazing how they can come up with a vet’s certificate (to avoid the withdrawal penalty) after their horse got drawn right on the outside. I bet by Champions’ Day at Ascot the horse is perfectly fine.

 

What is the withdrawal penalty QM?

 

Generally 16/1 now. 33s when Grendel spotted her

Aventure out to 5s

 

A couple for me ew in Paris
Ponntos in the abbé and Leffard in the Arc. Ponntosis drawn with the speed low and I like the jockey booking. Leffard went off fave in the trial. I’ll forgive that run having been a c&d winner. At the prices I’m a punter.
Good luck
Cheers.

 

If you take your horse out for veterinary reasons then you do not get fined for withdrawing your horse. You can also withdraw a horse from a race if there is a significant change in the going conditions that could not have been foreseen at the time of declaration – that is why you get so many non-runners with the 48 hour declaration system here. In the UK the withdrawal penalty used to be a percentage of the prize money so it could be quite a lot in a valuable race; however, that was replaced with a standard amount quite a few years ago here.

 

According to Turf Trax there were 5mm of rain at Longchamp yesterday and the going is “Soft, Good to Soft in places” (readings between 5.9 and 6.4 on the going stick) on the main course and “Good to Soft” (7.3 on the going stick) on the straight used for the Abbaye. At the time of writing, France Galop have not given an official report yet but I would be more inclined to go with the Turf Trax version anyway.

An analysis of the Arc seems a little superfluous as I have backed Aventure ante post and won’t be backing anything else in the race. Ironic that last year I had backed her at 33/1 straight up but this year I did her each way at half the odds. So I thought I would do what I did last year, a quick assessment of the field:

Giavellotto – beat Kalpana in the September Stakes but main claim to fame is two Yorkshire Cup wins and an upset win in the Hong Kong Vase; however, is well drawn.
White Birch – no 2025 wins and well beaten in Irish Champion Stakes last time, no wins at this trip.
Arrow Eagle – well beaten in Prix Foy and hard to see why he would reverse that form.
Sosie – second in Prix Foy and fourth last year as favourite, every chance from a good draw.
Los Angeles – has been trained for the race after third last year but disappointed in Prix Foy and not helped by draw.
Byzantine Dream – won the Prix Foy after long layoff, not drawn well and question whether the ground has gone against him.
Quisisana – won Prix Jean Romanet and is six from eight in career, has good draw and progressing.
Kalpana – best effort when runner up in the King George, ground has eased for her but the first time blinkers are a concern.
Aventure – last year’s runner up trained for this race, only 2025 defeat by Calandagan, has not got greatest draw.
Daryz – first attempt at this trip, blew out in Juddmonte International, second in Prix du Prince d’Orange and has good stall position.
Leffard – well beaten in Prix Niel after shock win in Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance, needs career best today.
Cualificar – won Prix Niel but winner has not followed up since 2006 and needs another career best from a good draw.
Hotazhell – well beaten in the Irish Champion Stakes and has never won beyond a mile so looks up against it.
Croix Du Nord – Japanese Derby winner who won Prix du Prince d’Orange but will need a career best from worst draw and the ground is an unknown.
Alohi Alii – won Prix Guillaume d’Ornano easily but first attempt at this trip and best drawn of the Japanese.
Minnie Hauk – winner of Epsom, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks so no problem with track or trip, Timeform top rated.
Gezora – winner of Prix de Diane, close second in Prix Vermeille, drawn next to the winner and has not won at this trip.

I expect Minnie Hauk to go off favourite with the British layers but Aventure will be favourite on the PMU unless one of the Japanese horses collapses under the weight of oriental money.