How the Bookies See Us

I’m no gambling man, never have been. But as things currently stand, the bookies have us as 22/1 to get promoted and 8/1 to get relegated. Perhaps a lower/mid-table position is where we will end up, I don’t know. But if you think of our squad and its potential, I find it strange to think that if you ran the season 23 times Watford would only get promoted once. And those odds are shorter than reality supposedly.

Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to track how the bookies see our chances throughout the season.

As of 06/09/25
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 100/1
PROMOTION: 22/1
RELEGATION: 8/1

 

At this stage of the season I would imagine the shortest odds for any team would be around 14/1 for promotion.

 

Brilliant, Mex!

 

This time next year, we'll be .......skint rodders.

 

As of 21/09/25
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 100/1
PROMOTION: 40/1
RELEGATION: 11/2

Only Derby, Sheff Weds and Oxford below us in the promotion stakes apparently, and only those teams and Portsmouth more likely to be relegated, they say.

 

That doesn't feel correct, even with my biased eyes. It may be just the broader market maybe that doesn't know much about us and our players, seeing the way last season ended, an untried manager who hasn't worked in England before, and a former PL team drifting without any more parachute money, and so assumes we won't do very well.

 

Well I think they are not far off reality.

 

I would have agreed with you before tonight’s game!

 

I didn't think so, but the team and you are convincing me.

 

Jack Grieves is second favourite Watford player to score first today, according to Bet365. Has someone put a big bet on him? His odds are shorter than Irankunda!

 

As of 21/09/25 (pre-playing Oxford)
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 100/1
PROMOTION: 33/1
RELEGATION: 6/1

Our promotion odds have shortened from 40-1 to 33-1 and our relegation odds also marginally longer at 6-1 from 11-2.
Green shoots? Not in my book, but we can but hope.

 

Very tough run of games coming up to see if we are actually good enough to contend .

 

As of 22/09/25
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 80/1
PROMOTION: 25/1
RELEGATION: 7/1

Quite a change from yesterday morning.

 

I’m interested to see the last posted odds have not changed, given the strong rumours.

 

The current odds are longer I suppose because of the Sheffield United game, but I think last night's was more telling. However:

As of 23/10/25
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 100/1
PROMOTION: 40/1
RELEGATION: 7/1

 

Our odds of winning the Championship have been fairly static till we lost to Coventry, going from 100/1 to 150/1. Promotion odds lengthening to 50/1. I still think those odds are long and don't take into account the changes we have seen, particularly the xG stats which showed that we had more expected goals than Coventry.
Relegation odds shorten to 6/1.

As of 26/10/25
WIN CHAMPIONSHIP: 150/1
PROMOTION: 50/1
RELEGATION: 6/1[/QUOTE]