Any chance Ombudsman might run here, despite looking all over a 10F horse? Press seem convinced he is going to Ascot or Breeders Cup and the trip of the Arc would appear to stretch him.
All this receiving tons of weight because he/she's younger is malarkey. As is probably the sex allowance.
Seems I'm not the only one who sees the similarity with an Agatha Christie novel (See Racing Post today: Who will be holding the bloody knife?). The leading suspects are continually being bumped off (for those of you who didn't originally see the connection).
They seem to have found the fav now. Can't see that changing? So my long range selections not looking quite so bad now Aventure 4/1 fav Los Angeles 40/1 Jan Brueghel 50/1 Still have Regaleira quoted at 80/1 even though she won't be there
A lot of the shorter priced horses are entered at Ascot . Will they really run 2 such big races within 2 weeks of each other?
I can't see Ombudsman in the Arc. I've been looking at a 33/1 shot with little to find on ratings and form. Quisisana was aimed at last year's Arc but was scuppered by injury. Francis Graffard reckoned she might have won last year's race but her campaign was littered with setbacks and injuries. She finally won her group 1 this August in the Prix Romanet. She finished ahead of Bedtime Story in doing so and that ties in closely with Aventure who also beat the O Brien filly. Quisisana has a RPR of 116 compared to 120 for Aventure. The French horse is 6/8 in her career which is admirable. Her trainer reckons she will stay a mile and a half without question and will probably have no concerns with soft going. His biggest worry is the horse picking up another injury but the race is getting close now. The Prix Romanet was changed to a "win and you're in" race this year and that was the clincher in going to the Arc instead of the Opera with her. 33/1 with Paddy Power but 20/1 with several firms. Double carpet looks huge compared to 4/1 Aventure considering the race Fav only got off the mark in Group 1 company recently as well. Quisisana 33/1 in an open year
Just looked her up. Another 5yo mare. By Le Havre out of a Sea The Stars mare. Has won over 12f on good to soft in a decent time and has won on heavy. How did I not spot that one?
She only came to my attention after winning the Romanet. I read an article in Bloodhorse to find out more about her:- https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/286730/quisisana-springs-upset-in-prix-jean-romanet
I don't think any of them have Oddy. Hence the betting has been all over the place. Not one outstanding horse around. But as Grendel says she only has ¾l to make up on Aventure so the relative odds do look a bit screwed
Just read that. Very interesting that the owners also have the geldings Calandagan and Goliath and the other free entry Gezora who is 16/1 Could she be another Alpinista. 25/1 at present
Only 1lb lower than Minnie Hauk and 6 times the price. I thought a few quid was worth a go at those odds. I picked Three Troikas at 33/1 in 1979 but had two problems. I was underage and the bookies were closed on Sundays in those days. I watched the race with my father, who was fit to be tied when Three Troikas won and not a penny on her. I can still see his face as if it was yesterday.
I won't be going to the Arc this year but, if I was, I think I would have a little bit ew on that Quisisana, with a covering stake on Aventure to win. I think Aventure will start fav but Minnie Hauk may keep her at around the 4/1 mark so best to look at her on the day. I'll be surprised if Quisisana's odds don't halve on the day to around 12/1 so I would take those available odds of 25/1. I'm assuming my other long range selections won't turn up. But if any do I would have an even smaller ew on them For me this is still the most interesting race that I look forward to all year
Aidan O’Brien has announced his intended Arc running plans with just Oaks/Irish Oaks/Yorkshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk and (original contender) Los Angeles set to go to Longchamp. With that news, the British layers promoted the three year old filly to joint favourite with Aventure at 9/2 with Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord next in the lists at 9/1. Los Angeles is still available at 40/1. At the first forfeit stage the list will reduce as those that do not stand their ground will be eliminated from the betting.
First forfeit stage for the Arc and these are the seventeen that stood their ground: Giavellotto (M Botti), White Birch (JJ Murphy), Arrow Eagle (JC Rouget), Sosie (A Fabre), Los Angeles (A O’Brien), Byzantine Dream (T Sakaguchi), Estrange (D O’Meara), Quisisana (FH Graffard), Kalpana (A Balding), Aventure (C Ferland), Daryz (FH Graffard), Leffard (JC Rouget), Cualificar (A Fabre), Hotazhell (J Harrington), Croix Du Nord (T Saito), Alohi Alii (H Tanaka) and Gezora (FH Graffard). We knew that Almaqam was going to Ascot instead. The following other notable names have also not been declared: Economics, Al Riffa, Illinois, Shin Emperor, Ancient Wisdom, Ombudsman, Jan Brueghel, Nakheel, Survie, Tiffany, Regaleira, Azimpour, Ridari, Delacroix, New Ground, The Lion In Winter, Camille Pissarro, Damysus, Nitoi, Uther, Tennessee Stud, and Zarigana. Obviously all the Ballydoyle entries bar one and a couple of Japanese in there. Minnie Hauk has to be supplemented on Wednesday as she was never originally entered. I think that there is a possibility that some of these may not make it to post because they will all be watching the Paris weather forecast. Assuming that France Galop are not going to turn on the taps, if the ground is what we would consider ‘good’ (not French going report but TurfTrax or Timeform assessments) could Kalpana be switched to Ascot?
Looks like that leaves Los Angeles as the highest rated horse in the field (121) ahead of Aventure (120). Not sure where the Japanese sit in terms of those two on OR but if one considers their shortest-priced runner, (3rd fav at 9/1) Croix Du Nord, just scrambled home from Daryz (last of 6 beaten miles in the Juddmonte) on trials day it looks a woefully weak Arc. Is the Paris showpiece starting to lose its attraction?
