Wednesday's Meetings York Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m. Carlisle Flat 6 Races 2:05-4:55p.m. Worcester(E) N/H 7 Races 4:50-8:00p.m Sligo(E) N/H 7 Races 5:05-8:08p.m. Kempton(E) A/W 8 Races 5:15-8:50p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
The nonsense of self-inflating flat ratings and Ascot's Chmpions day is on display in the Juddmonte again. As a 6 year-old Anmaat won the Champions Stakes last October on soft ground (what a surprise) and was put up 8lbs by the handicapper (115 to 123 having been around 115 for the previous 2 years). Ombudsman (rated 117 when beating Anmaat at Royal Ascot last year) is suddenly upped 11lbs for beating the very same Anmaat just over a year later and is dropped a pound for being touched off by Delacroix at Sandown - Delacroix raised 10lbs for that. 126 and 127 for those two horses is laughable. See The Fire to take the spoils for the fairer sex. How long till the jumps season?
Havent offered one for a while.... but got stuck into the 5.20 tomorrow and to my eyes TEMPLE OF ATHENA looks thrown in. Beaten 4l by Spicy Marg in the Molecombe (Spicy Marg will be rated 90+) and runs here with a 7lb claimer rated 79!@!@!... more none of its family managed to win over 5, it did and tomorrow is 6. From a mare by Dansili that has thrown 8 winners from 6f to 1m4f. By a miler so looks certain to stay really well. Missed the 14 but managed to get some 9 six places bet 365. If theres another in there then Chairmanfourtimes might be another e/way dabble.
In the Juddmonte I went with Danon Decile. His defeat of Calandagan in the Sheema Classic was visually as good as anything I have seen this season. He has not run since but a couple of months ago I heard he was being aimed at this race. He was 16/1 at that stage but is understandably shorter now that a few are absent but they were pretty predictable absentees. The Sun has been trying to hype the horse up saying that he has been backed off the boards into 10/3 but this is pure bollocks and there is 6/1 available. I agree with OddDog that Ombudsman and Delacroix are overrated but I feel See The Fire is probably a little bit overrated for a 12 length win from Beautiful Love who was rated 113 at the time but has retreated to an official rating of 108 and hasn't been seen since earning a RPR of 99 when only 4th at the end of May. Other than her maiden win, See The Fire has only won twice in her other 12 races and is yet to win in Group 1 company. . Sectional analysis showed that Delacroix out speeded Ombudsman last time, yet John Gosden stated his horse was out stayed by Delacroix in the Eclipse. If Gosden is right the York track should help him this time. I prefer Ombudsman of the two because O'brien has had a few stinkers of late, with Los Angeles failing to even beat a 300/1 shot who was rated 80 recently and Puppet Master was also stuffed at odds on, while The Lion In Winter ran 20 lbs short of his rating after seemingly getting back on track when 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat only to be tailed off in the Prix Jacques Le Marois past Sunday. Francis Graffard saddles the unbeaten Daryz but he needs to find about stone on previous form yet he is one of the more popular tips today. Quite why Birr Castle is in here makes no sense unless he is going to be the pace angle for Ombudsman, he'd be a real Qirat type winner. Danon Decile 6/1 for me. In the Acomb Stakes I was surprised to see Italy line up. I thought he looked more of a horse for next year and the 7f at York can sometimes throw up speedy types as the winner. Appleby's Distant Storm won narrowly on debut and the same concerns about the track apply at the same trip as his Newmarket win. However his race could hardly have worked out better, with seven of the field having won races since. He has had a race less than Italy, so could arguably have more to show us. There are a few here in the same boat having won their only start and they are big odds due to having won at less fancy tracks. At 6/4 I would tend to leave the race alone, noting that Ruling Court was only third to The Lion In Winter when Evens Fav last season.
Seven line up over the seven furlongs for the Acomb Stakes (2.25) and, as usual, punters have to decide which of the lightly raced participants they think is going to show the most improvement on their efforts to date. Last year this was won by The Lion In Winter, who has proven to be a disappointment this year. The Ballydoyle contender this year is the twice raced Italy. After a debut win in a Leopardstown maiden he was turned over by a Godolphin colt in the Superlative Stakes in July. Now he faces another Godolphin colt in the form of once raced Distant Storm, winner of a Newmarket maiden race in a photo from a Ballydoyle opponent. There are three other once raced runners in the form of Sovereign Ocean (will need to be a bit better than his 33/1 upset Musselburgh maiden win), Rochfortbridge (big upset winner of a five runner Ayr maiden beating 2/13 Thesecretadversary, previously runner up in Italy’s debut win) and Gewan (winner of what looks on paper to have been a hot Newbury novice but has only produced one subsequent winner). May Angel won at the second time of asking on the kitty litter at Southwell in a race where a Godolphin odds-on favourite clearly did not give its running. David Menuisier’s Goodwood Galaxy ironically lost his unbeaten record at Goodwood running a respectable fourth in the Vintage Stakes beaten less than two lengths and deserves to take his chance in this Group 3 after that Group 2 effort. The Godolphin and Ballydoyle charges are both short enough with the bookies that I will just be watching but Goodwood Galaxy looks overpriced at 10/1. The Great Voltigeur (3.00) looks to be a cake walk for the Derby winner Lambourn, well ahead of any of his rivals on the ratings and I do not think that the penalty will be the cause of his downfall. I remember nearly 40 years ago watching the brilliant Reference Point make all in a three runner race for this before heading off to Town Moor for the final Classic and given that three of the six rivals facing the 2025 Derby winner come from the same yard, it looks hard to see them bothering him. That said, Timeform only have Lambourn 4lbs clear of Dee Stakes winner Mount Kilimanjaro and Lingfield Derby Trial runner up Stay True. Arabian Force was second in a Listed race last time and down the field in the Hampton Court Stakes before that so he is surely only in this, in receipt of the full Group 1 penalty from the favourite, to give his yard a marker to the merit of the favourite. The two main rivals to the favourite carry Group 2 penalties. Dante winner Pride Of Arras has been gelded following disappointments in the Epsom and Irish Derbies but will that really see him improve sixteen places on his Epsom running in receipt of just 2lb? Queen’s Vase winner Carmers remains unbeaten but although that form has subsequently been franked by Scandinavia (fifth) and Furthur (second) it has also been let down by Rahiebb (third) and Shackleton (fourth). Can he find enough improvement in receipt of just 2lb dropping back in trip this afternoon? I think not. Godolphin are clearly taking no chance with the Juddmonte International (3.35) turning into a two furlong sprint, having supplemented a pacemaker Birr Castle (shipped over from France) with Rab Havlin in the plate. See The Fire has won both her previous starts at York but she is clearly a little short of the top drawer and had no realistic chance last time in the Nassau, the race gifted to the front running favourite as soon as the flag fell. There is no reason to think that she will reverse Prince Of Wales’s Stakes running with Ombudsman. Unbeaten French raider Daryz is stepping into Group 1 territory for the first time after winning the Prix Eugene Adam beating George Scott’s Bay City Roller last time following on from an easy Listed race win at Longchamp. His supporters today will hope for significant improvement as none of his form has been against opponents of this calibre. Of course, Delacroix beat Ombudsman in the Eclipse and there should be little between the pair again unless a truly run race brings out the type of performance that we saw from the Gosden colt at Ascot. The Japanese raider is clearly no mug, winner of last year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen on course at Meydan in April. With four career wins from eight starts, Danon Decile, winner of the American Jockey Club Cup over 2,200m at Nakayama in January had previously been third in the Arima Kinen over 2,500m at Nakayama in December. So will the 2,000m trip today be on the short side for him? The pacemaker is good news for the Japanese, who does not want a sprint in the York straight. I am expecting the plan to work out for William Buick’s mount so it is OMBUDSMAN at 2/1 for me. The Stayers’ Handicap (4.10) starts in front of the stands and does a complete circuit with thirteen declared. Eight year old Wise Eagle has not been seen since April and I cannot see him giving weight away all around to race-fit rivals with better form. Six year old Maghlaak was nowhere on Shergar Cup day and second last in a fourteen furlong Group 3 at this track. If they put some hurdles on the Knavesmire, his second at Market Rasen in between those efforts might make him worth considering. Charlie Johnston’s Artisan Dancer won a two mile Ripon handicap in April off 79 but has registered four thirds since, including last time when ahead of Maghlaak on Shergar Cup day. That win off 79 was his highest winning mark and he runs off 81 here. Six year old Alphonse Le Grande is short in the betting because he is trained by Tony Martin. He won the Cesarewitch last year off 87 but has been an also-ran twice this year off his current mark of 93. Charlie Johnston’s second runner Align The Stars has the services of Joe Fanning and will probably want to be up with the pace but he has not troubled the judge since last year at Goodwood. Artistic Star has first time cheekpieces but they will need to make a significant difference as he has not been in the winner’s enclosure since 2023. Ordinarily one would think that a horse third in the Pitmen’s Derby would be a strong contender here but that race is now run on the kitty litter and Charging Thunder won last time on the kitty litter but was only second in a three runner turf race at Beverley in between; hence a claimer being aboard today. Second in the Pitmen’s Derby was Dancing In Paris and Ian Williams’ charge was behind Align The Stars and Artisan Dancer at HQ before a second at Goodwood that now sees him on a career high mark of 94. Spirit Mixer won the Pitmen’s Derby but was only fifth on Shergar Cup day in the race won by Fireblade with Almuhit second and Artisan Dancer third. Whether there is any merit to that form is debatable but it would require a career best from Spirit Mixer to win off 94, a career best for Fireblade to win off 90; however, Almuhit has won off higher than today’s 87. Brian Ellison’s Terrorise won over course and distance last time off 71, has been raised 7lb for the four length victory but has the services of Hollie Doyle off bottom weight and should give a good account. Santorini Star reverts to handicap company here having been fourth in a Group 3 race and a Listed race on her last two starts. She is also stepping up two furlongs and running off a career high mark of 97; however, Mr Haggas does like to have a winner at York. The more I look at this race the more impossible it becomes with so many needing a career best, including my pick Dancing In Paris.
Ebor meeting picks... 1:50 - Bergerac, 12/1 * 2:25 - Italy, 9/4 3:00 - Carmers, 5/1 3:35 - Ombudsman, 15/8 4:10 - Fireblade, 8/1 * 4:45 - Eternal Sunshine, 18/1 * 5:20 - First Legion, 12/1 * The ones * are my betting picks, all done in a small ew yankee and singles... Good luck if you are having a play today...
Luckily those tight bookies saved me money with Distant Storm. I thought 6/4 was too short. In the end his race was over after ten strides as he ran with his head high in the air refusing to settle. Came with a run but you always pay for pulling hard and he ultimately weakened into third just as Ruling Court did last year. Italy stayed on but never looked to have the pace to catch Gewan. Yet again ante post players got a kick in the balls. Wise Approach from the Appleby team opened 2/1 Fav for The Gimcrack and had been backed to odds-on only to be pulled out of the race in order to go for the Prix Morny. This leaves five time raced maiden Do Or Do Not as 7/4 Fav for the Gimcrack in what looks a poor renewal. The horse who was a neck behind Do Or Do Not, Goodwood Galaxy, just stank the place out in the Acomb, so hardly a confidence boost there.
Lambourn was garbage. I don't think York was his track at all and he came under the pump very early. I thought the runner up should have beaten him at the Curragh with a stronger ride. Aidan has kept saying he may go for the St Leger and the Arc looks off the agenda after today. The de-balling of Pride Of Arass seemed to do the trick and it is interesting that both he and Dionysus, who filled the last two places at Epsom by quite some margin have both recaptured their form and given the much aligned Dante a sudden boost it very much needed at the same time.
Danon Decile was garbage. Money came for him but he folded like an accordion. Ombudsman was always travelling better than Delacroix and perhaps his rating was solidified as true today. Delacroix stayed on to snag second place with the blatantly sacrificed pacemaker able to repel the rest of the more fancied than him field. Just for a moment I thought he may have stolen it from the front but he was treading water in the closing stages. See The Fire is probably Group 2 class but maybe will find the right fillies Group 1 some day.
Pride of Arras is obviously talented but amongst other things had a mind of his own. But how bad was Lambourn? Is there a good 3yo staying colt? Speaks volumes for gelding.
I was on the Knavesmire and am obviously delighted to have been proven right about Ombudsman. I wonder whether they opted for a French pacemaker so that if there was another instance of the pacemaker winning at least it would not be a handicapper like Qirat for Juddmonte at Goodwood. He had ten furlong form in France so perhaps the choice was also deliberate. Over there he is a Listed/Group 3 performer – he ran in the Prix Dollar at last year’s Arc meeting so I expect he might be there again unless he is needed for the Irish Champion and then Champions’ Day. Whilst Delacroix clearly has plenty of ability, I am not sure that I would trust his temperament. When he was being led from the stables on the back straight (just beyond the 10 furlong start) to the pre-parade yard he was being very mulish and he was stubborn down at the start too. I had wondered why Danon Decile was running over ten furlongs given his career profile and I am prepared to put a line through his run as his jockey surely chose completely the wrong tactics. I had expected him to be up near the pacemaker but he dropped out after initially being with him. He was a lovely looking colt down at the start but I noted that his jockey stood with him fifty yards past the starting stalls upon arrival, keeping away from the others. Birr Castle had got warm down the neck at the start but connections will be delighted that they got back their supplementary fee and some change to cover the journey from France. The French colt Daryz also got a little warm but his running gives the impression that he simply was not good enough. Delacroix got a little worked up when he was being led behind the stalls. See The Fire looked fine down at the start but she lost her York unbeaten record and if they are going to find her a Group 1 it is probably going to have to be overseas somewhere as she ultimately did not manage to pip the pacemaker for third. I have no idea what to make of the Great Voltigeur Stakes. Clearly lightening the load worked the trick for Pride Of Arras but who would have expected the four O’Brien runners to be the last four home? There was nothing untoward about any of them down at the start. Mount Kilimanjaro was a little warm down the neck, less so than Stay True, but they did not seem agitated. Lambourn looked fine and gave no indication that he was going to blow out. Moore had to chase him out the gate to get the lead but then he allowed the outsider Thrice to take over. Was this change of tactics from The Derby what put paid to him? When he only just scrambled home at The Curragh he did not make all. Get rid of Moore and put Lordan back on him.
