Thursday's Meetings Glorious Goodwood Flat 8 Races 1:20-5:30p.m. Galway Festival Mixed 8 Races 2:10-6:10p.m. Nottingham Flat 6 Races 2:18-5:15p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m. Epsom(E) Flat 6 Races 5:50-8:30p.m Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
1.20 or 3.45 or 4.20 or 5.30? A 5/2 favourite off top weight in the 18 runner opener for three year olds but it is Timeform top rated. The sprint at 3.45 will empty your wallet quickly. I am sure the bookies will be offering five or six places. Just eleven in the nursery at 4.20 but most are on handicap debut. Twenty in the 5.30 and you can expect the price of Timeform top rated Sea Force to collapse as it was ‘an unlucky loser’ last time from the Haggas yard.
After yesterday’s latest episode of brain dead midgets riding horses, surely the play in the Nassau Stakes and the Gordon Stakes is to back the outsiders, so Running Lion to floor Whirl and Too Soon to floor Merchant, anyone? I would not touch any of the last four races at Inglorious Goodwood and the three pattern races look avoidable too. There is always a small field for the Gordon Stakes (2.30), one of the main St Leger trials, so not surprising that just seven line up. After his easy handicap win at Ascot, Timeform top rated Merchant is a short-priced favourite to continue the improvement following in the footsteps of last year’s St Leger winner. Ballydoyle representative Galveston was third in the King Edward VII Stakes and will need to up his game here. Wimbledon Hawkeye was behind Galveston at Ascot and subsequently was beaten by an ex-handicapper at Newmarket. Rahiebb was third in the Queen’s Vase (Too Soon ninth) and now drops back to the distance at which he was previously second twice. Windlord was pacemaker for Field Of Gold twice and subsequently won a ten furlong Listed race at Sandown. Running here on his own merits will he stay the extra quarter of a mile? After a couple of wins yesterday, in form Ralph Beckett provides the biggest test for the favourite with Irish Derby fifth Sir Dinadan, previously second over course and distance in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes (Too Soon sixth). He might be the pace angle today unless Moore wants to set the fractions on Galveston. Too Soon has no earthly chance on form having been second last in a handicap a week ago. A disappointing turnout of just five for the Nassau Stakes (3.05), with last year’s runner up See The Fire back to try and beat Ballydoyle’s representative this year. With O’Brien providing two, some might prefer Lordan on Bedtime Story, who has been fitted with a hood after failing to score in four attempts in Group 1s since winning the Debutante Stakes at 1/16 last year. Naturally Moore prefers Whirl, winner of the Musidora and the Pretty Polly at this trip with second in the Oaks sandwiched in between. Cercene caused an upset winning the Coronation Stakes, form that has been let down by other runners subsequently, and steps up two furlongs today. Running Lion was second in the Prix de l’Opera last year but was last in the Dahlia Stakes and the Falmouth Stakes, only fourth at Ascot when making the running and second in a Listed race at this trip at Haydock in four races since. The most open betting heat of the pattern races is the Richmond Stakes (1.55) with nine lining up. Irish raider Chicago Call is a complete unknown, easy winner of a Fairyhouse maiden three weeks ago. Underwriter was last in the Coventry and subsequently won an Ayr novice cakewalk under a penalty. Six places ahead of him at Ascot was Super Soldier, who subsequently was runner up in the Prix Robert Papin, splitting Green Sense and Tadej in what was a Group 2 in name only. Ballydoyle is represented by maiden Puerto Rico, five lengths second in the four runner Railway Stakes a couple of weeks ago. Ralph Beckett fields Egoli, winner of his last two starts most recently making all in a Newbury novice under a penalty. Azizam followed up a debut win at Hamilton with third in the Windsor Castle; however, there is no obvious reason he should reverse form with the winner that day, Havana Hurricane, who subsequently failed to land the Newbury Super Sprint when favourite, over this extra furlong. Godolphin’s Maximized is fitted with cheekpieces after losing his unbeaten record when favourite for the July Stakes (the winner followed up here on Tuesday) and is no forlorn hope today if he can sit behind the pace. When last seen Coppull was third in the Coventry, form that gives him the beating of a couple of his rivals and he looks to be another that will be at the front end of this race. Previous Epsom winner Maximized should handle the track and could bounce back but if I were having a bet I would chance that Coppull’s Ascot run was not a fluke (was 66/1); however, there are too many front runners and a change of tactics is probably going to prove decisive for someone today.
Said for long enough QM, most jockeys come with a health warning, we should have a 'who you wouldn't let ride your bike' thread..
Day 2 was a wash out, so glad none of my money was down, but day 3 has... 1:20 - Best Adventure, 33/1 * 1:55 - Puerto Rico, 11/2 2:30 - Galveston, 6/1 3:05 - Whirl, 11/10 3:45 - Naana's Sparkle, 10/1 * 4:20 - Sir Albert, 13/2 * 4:55 - Brighlee, 8/1 5:30 - Cavolo Nero, 9/1 * The ones * have my money, small ew yankee and singles... Good luck today if you are having a play...
John Francome one said on TV "Jockeys eh? If you took their brains out they would still weigh the same" I felt Merchant was way too short today. They were even talking about him for the Arc but to my eye he has a long way to go yet and is priced as if already there. Wimbledon Hawkeye has placed in some good races but has yet to win this season. An early season article I read listed him as a horse who may not progress much this season and he seems a horse who has not found his ideal trip. At 7/1 Galveston is a rare biggish price for O'brien. He needs improvement but has potential. We have seen his stable mate Scandinavia leave previous form behind to lie very close to Derby winner Lambourn on ratings now. 2.30 Good Galveston 7/1
Conditions looked awful there and my pick was even more awful. Other than breaking reasonably well he struggled all the way and that must be one of the worst efforts by an O'brien trained horse in living memory. He's run stones below form there. So nearly saw Merchant beaten there but luckily for Fav backers he was running down Wimbledon Hawkeye, who looked like he didn't quite stay and is starting to look something of a dodge pot yet continues to prove an each way player for punters. Merchant as low as 20/1 for the Arc. Non merci
Why do these so called experts keep going on about older horses giving weight to younger horses? It's weight for age and it's needed. 50 years ago Bustino gave 13lb to Grundy in the 'Race of the Century'. He was beaten half-a-length and because the senior handicapper of that time felt that the horses were the equal of each other he changed the wfa allowance to 12lb. I've not heard any justifications for recent changes as the KG wfa is now 11lb. Are 4yos getting worse or are 3yos getting better. Relative to each other I doubt there's any change but compared to 50 years horses are definitely getting worse.
I know the handicapper have a difficult job but they are obsessed with raising ratings to try to explain a scenario when anyone can see that several horses have not run their race and that the winner was flattered. The Bha have a section on their website called "Why they ran badly" I assume this is to aid interested parties in why the horse in question may not have run their race. In yesterday's Sussex Stakes I fully expected that there would be a report into why the 1/3 Fav Field Of Gold was only 4th. Not a word about it. Instead connections of winner Qirat were asked how he had run so badly LAST time. They reported that he had reacted badly to first time blinkers and run too free resulting in him being 27th of 30 in a handicap. More to the point was how he managed to beat horses rated 20 lbs and upwards his superior? This is not a good enough approach to explaining the result and you can be sure Qirat will be given a big rise in the ratings aged 4 on his 12th career start despite being narrowly beaten off 99 in a handicap 2 races back and winning at 150/1. I have just checked the Racing Post ratings and they have Qirat running to 114 or 12 lbs above his official rating. They have Rosalion running only 3lbs below his mark. Henri Matisse is 13 lbs below his OR Field Of Gold 23 lbs below form, Docklands Express 15 lbs below form, Carl Spackler 17 lbs below form yet astonishingly 300/1 shot Serengeti who was blatantly sacrificed as a pacemaker and therefore unlikely to have run at all efficiently is deemed to have rub 6 lbs higher than his official rating of 92, so a new personal best setting off at a suicidal lick. That assessment makes no sense to me. They are saying Rosalion has pretty much run to his form. Qirat has more or less improved by a stone, everything else has run a honker apart from the pacemaker who was last but ran better than ever. Some races just need the Timeform squiggle in the form of a logo which combines the letters WTF with ? It transpires that Field Of Gold was lame when he got home and will be undergoing vetinary tests over the next week.
Didn’t see any Goodwood racing today but looking at the results the first 3 races were ran on good, good to firm in places. 35 mins later and the 4th race is run on heavy. That must have been some deluge. Can’t have happened very often.
Not a bad day with 3 winners selected, two of them carrying my money...!! Plus my 33/1 shot just missed out on a place so could have been a proper good ole glorious day...
