VIP FRIDAY Good morning we have 5 meets in the UK today. These are my bets across the other cards today. I’ve reduced stake sizes for these for the best of the rest for a few reasons. 1. Having main bets at Newmarket, best racing is there. 2. Haven’t hit a barn door so far this week. Newmarket tips will be posted before 11.30 am latest. 2.45 YORK - SAYIDAH DARIYAN 3/1 - 0.5 win 3.10 ASCOT - ACCENTUATE 5/2 - 0.5 win 5.07 YORK - WEN MOON 8/1 - 0.5 ew 5.40 YORK - MY HARRISON GEORGE 22/1 - 0.5 ew 7.10 CHEPSTOW - ABUNDANCE 11/4 - 0.5 win 8.25 CHESTER - ROSENPUR 7/2 - 0.5 win Total points 3.
VIP FRIDAY 1.50 NEWMARKET - WAR HAWK 8/1 - 0.5 EW win 3.00 NEWMARKET - STORY HORSE 6/1 - 0.5 ew win (4 paid) 3.35 NEWMARKET - JANUARY 2/1 - 1 point win - ELWATEEN 12/1 0.5 saver 4.45 NEWMARKET - UP THE PACE 6/1 - 0.5 ew (4 paid) WAR HAWK is drifting quite a bit this morning and was 11/2 earlier. Can now take an EW price. It will be a big ask for this one to make it 3/3 from handicaps - he has won 2 in the past month for the Crisfords and we have backed him both times. His last effort was on G-S but I think he shown enough previously on the firmer ground to stick with him but I presume that’s the main reason for the substantial drift. STORY HORSE was chinned for us last month at Goodwood in a close finish when FRENCH MASTER came from the clouds to get up down the rail. It was another brilliant effort from STORY HORSE who won here at Newmarket earlier in the season. That win came from a mark of 82. We run from 87 today, Saffie Osbourne maintains the ride and the values just about there to take on the favourites. ARTISAN DANCER might be worth a few pennies at 40/1 with LIAIRI 25/1 also looking a bit overpriced based on recent effort. I think JANUARY'S 3rd place in the CORONATION STAKES at Ascot is the best recent piece of form on offer here. She has a 9lb swing in the weights with her weight allowance over rivals. CINDERELLA'S DREAM is clear danger with Godolphin and Buick having a brill day yesterday. ELWATEEN is a lot better than what we saw in the Betfred Oaks. Played up before the race - didn’t start well. Small saver for me at 12/1. TOTAL POINTS 3.
VIP SATURDAY 2.40 - MARKET RASEN - MOON CHIME 9/1 & CASTEL GANDOLFO 12/1 - 0.5 EW CASTEL GANDOLFO won this last year and arrives off the back off a nice win with his yard in good form. Very easy to take a chance on IMO despite his advancing age. Rarely runs a bad race here - in fact I think he’s placed or won in all starts here bar one. Might have a bit to find from a handicapping perspective but still worth a go IMO. Secondly we are trying tracker horse MOON CHIME. Failed to fire when tried at Goodwood in a maiden stakes on the flat but now back hurdling. This is his first spin at Market Rasen but his last two efforts in this discipline have seen decisive victories. Today we go up to class 2 for the first time. We wouldn’t mind a touch of rain but can act on good ground if necessary. Fair value here. 3.22 - CARTMEL - SEA THE CLOUDS 20/1 - 0.5 ew Pulled up in his last race at Hexham after hitting the bar at this track in May in his previous run. 5lb claimer will put us 2lb below last winning mark as the yards top jockey Charlotte Jones takes the ride on stable mate OUR SAM. SEA THE CLOUDS won this race last year and has a good record around CARTMEL. Looks overpriced still despite seeing some market support already. 3.50 - MARKET RASEN - LERMOOS LEGEND 11/2 - 0.5 ew. LERMOOS has been frustrating to follow recently and now has 4 second places in a row. It’s Seans turn today to ride for his father after both he and James hit the bar recently and filled up the runners up spot. This horse is obviously capable and in good stead but a smaller bet is advised today as he’s not been able to get the job done at class 4, so it’s going to take a big effort to get the job done at class 3. Hopefully Sean Bowen will be the difference maker today. 5.30 - NEWMARKET - LEADMAN 9/4 - 1 point win LEADMAN drops in class despite winning LTO over course and distance. He’s 4lbs up for that win but the penny looks to have dropped for this horse now who was a maiden after 9 attempts. I think there's a bit more to come from LEADMAN based recent performances - this doesn’t look the strongest of renewals with SWEET FANTASTIC looking the pick of the rivals with Oisin Murphy taking the ride for the Hugo Palmer team. 7.38 - NEWMARKET - BILLY B 4/1 - 1 point win BILLY B should be able to get the better of favourite DUTCH DECOY here who won nicely for the first time in 2 years last week here at Newmarket. That margin was razor thin so he’s only up 3lbs and should remain competitive. With that said it’s BILLY B that looks value. He’s been knocking on the door lately and finding solid market support before his runs. Was expected to go in at Beverley off a mark of 81 - he’s only down 1lb for recent efforts but has won of marks as high as 85 in the past - this should be his level. Billy Loughrane is booked to ride his namesake. TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED 4.
2.15 Cartmel Jlow 1.5 pt win 7/2 2.50 cartnel Ashington 1 pt ew 28/1 4 places 3.22 cartmel well educated 1 pt ew 14/1 4 places 4.00 Cartmel Do No Wrong 2 pt ew 11/2
VIP WEDNESDAY 2.15 - SALISBURY - THE COLA BRESIL 7/1 - 4 paid - 0.5 EW We are big fans of Kenny Roussety who is a top lad and talented young jockey who brings the benefit of a 7lb claim to the party. We have followed and known this lad since his days riding in Mauritius and it’s nice to see he now has his UK licence and starting to earn some rides for the Bell stable. Kennys claim IMO is invaluable. He has significantly more experience than your average claimer with time spent riding in Bahrain, Mauritius, Norway, France, Sweden and more. This is only his 4th ride this year in the UK but expect to see more of him as he looks to establish himself down at Newmarket. We wish him all the best and looking forward to coming along for the journey. The horse itself is not without a chance here. It’s been eased 1lb after finishing 4th in race it was expected to win (went off favourite) Kennys claim puts us 8lbs below that mark and we are 15+ lbs below last winning effort in October last year. We have hit the bar twice recently including at Hamilton where Kenny rode. The form of that race has worked out well with the 3rd place COCONUT BAY going on to win twice. COCONUT runs today at 3.30 CATTERICK actually so if we do win this race that’s good form franking for the COCONUT who is currently priced at 5/1. 4.53 - SALISBURY - GREY FOX 8/1 - 4 paid 365 - 1 point EW I might be wrong about the favourite BAOUBOLE here but I feel that horse has had few chances now and hasn’t looked the part. It’s very short at 2/1 but has changed hands and now runs for Harry Durham’s yard. Buick has 2 rides this afternoon but I think he’s a better chance on Frankel debutant ASSIRI HEIGHTS. The horse is odds on so no bet for me today but has gone straight into the tracker and I’ll be watching that one with interest in the 2.50. The one tracker we have running today is GREY FOX at 8/1. With 4 places paid and only 11 runners we are getting decent value for a bet here IMO. We are only 1lbs above last winning mark today running from 70 but we also have a win from a mark of 75 - so we are clearly capable of winning at this level.
