Saturday's Meetings Dundalk A/W 8 Races 1:20-5:15p.m. Limerick Flat 7 Races 1:32-5:00p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m. Ascot Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:20p.m. York Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:25p.m. Chester(E) Flat 6 Races 4:20-7:10p.m. Salisbury(E) Flat 6 Races 5:40-8:20p.m. Hamilton(E) Flat 7 Races 5:50-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
TOO MUCH RACING...!!@!@!.... to only too much but at Premier racecourses.... resulting in 'not fit to ride my bike'.. (I know I always say it)
Saturdays are impossible to punt. Mind you every day is really. Barney Curley used to say that if ant of his shops made a loss two Saturdays in a row he would be up there on the Monday morning to find out what the feck was going on. When I learned that Notable Speech was going for the July Cup I wanted to take him on. He has never run at less than a mile and as a Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner it is not like he was a failed miler. The obvious question is why 6f now?, Also, has he the raw speed to win at the trip? I think he has under achieved to a certain extent and this year he has not progressed as you would have hoped. He has had excuses but it is worrying that they have needed to make those excuses. Last season he seemed inconsistent, in that he looked to be coming to win his races but then didn't show the turn of foot he had done when winning the Guineas. I have noticed that he has been a bit too keen in some of his races and perhaps that is why he has been unable to pick up in the closing stages. He opened at 4/1 and if that were still available I would probably back him, having assessed the opposition and found no real solid option against him. Flora Of Bermuda was third last time but well in arrears of the 1st two and doesn't have a great strike rate. Inisherin is capable but ran a stinker last time and is 0/3 at Newmarket. At 5/2 now Notable Speech seems well backed and he is the class in the race. Apparently he sparkled in his work prompting his entry at the shorter trip. I will hold off to see what the betting is in the morning. You would think layers may want to take him on but the sprint division is lacking strength in depth. At big odds I thought Spy Chief was interesting. His form is progressive and he was runner up in the Jersey Stakes in a run that strongly suggested a drop to 6f was in order. Too keen in his races thus far, if he settles better he may be capable of placing at 22/1 William Hill 4 places. Italy looks too short at 4/6 in the Superlative and I reckon Bedouin Prince will be hard to beat off 100 in the 3.35 Newmarket. He could have a fair bit more than that in the tank and 9/4 looked fair. I would have him 6/4. Good luck to you all today.
I'm also staggered by some of the trainers ... on Sunday I'm going to Southwell... 200k of prize money and the best race worth 75k 0-105, the top weight is rated 97. And yet, tomorrow, they will complain about firm ground.
He might well be a group horse in a handicap but More Thunder is very short in the Bunbury Cup and last year's winner, Aalto, looks a decent e/w bet at 25/1 with most firms paying 4 places. There have been a few dual winners of this down the years and Aalto is only 4lbs higher than last year. Had a nice prep race on the Rowley Mile last month and with a bit of luck can go close.
What is going on at Newmarket? Just thirteen in the Bunbury Cup – is it not worth enough? Has More Thunder really scared them all off? There are more runners in the July Cup (little surprise given that there appears to be no obvious champion sprinter around). The July Cup (4.35) presents a quandary. Does 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech have the necessary speed for this as he is obviously the top rated runner? He has never run over less than a mile and his last win was the 2024 Sussex Stakes plus three of his five career wins were on the Kempton kitty litter; he is one to oppose. Inisherin flopped last year after winning the Commonwealth Cup and I am not chasing my Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes losses today, as I see no reason why he should reverse Ascot placings with third Flora Of Bermuda. If something that owes me money is going to win it will be Believing, drawn on the wrong side at Ascot in the King’s Stand/King Charles III, but six furlongs is not really her trip. I think they are running her because she is about to disappear off to the breeding shed to drop a Frankel foal for Coolmore. Today’s jockey is currently on my naughty step for the dreadful ride he gave the last one I backed with him aboard; and Ryan Moore prefers Whistlejacket today. Hardly a surprise that just seven line up for the Superlative Stakes (4.00), with odds on shot Italy clearly expected to remain unbeaten at the expense of Godolphin duo Saba Desert and Wild Desert. The Coolmore colt and William Buick’s mount both have the Timeform ‘P’ and they cannot both win. My mate has done an ante post Guineas double on Venetian Sun and Italy, so I expect that one or neither of them will be at HQ next May. Given that five of the first six in the 2000 Guineas betting live at Ballydoyle, he will be lucky to see Italy line up as it is only third or fourth in the pecking order. In the John Smith’s Silver Cup (3.45) at York, there appears to be a money stealing opportunity in the form of Al Qareem, pretty much a standing dish at this level and on this track. Of his rivals the only threat at the ratings is Tabletalk, winner of the Melrose at last year’s Ebor meeting and runner-up in two Group 3s at shorter than this trip. The John Smith’s Cup (3.10) itself can be viewed two ways: the William Haggas runner Archivist is a handicap snip with just a 5lb penalty and a decent draw; or there is something lurking at much better odds to steal it if you can figure out which one. The Summer Mile (2.22) at Ascot is quite interesting. I backed the winner last year and that horse, Quddwah, returns but with not quite the same profile. Did he run as well as might have been expected in the Queen Anne? Prague warmed up for this at HQ and this is probably about his level, but will he find one or more progressive types too good for him today? It seems quite easy to write off the three outsiders as Dark Tornado, Nostrum and Point Lynas all look to be at least 7lb short of the standard set by the two market leaders. Never So Brave won the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting easily on the favoured stands’ side and steps up a furlong and a couple of grades here. He could be up to the task; however, I much prefer the form in the book of HAATEM, who stepped up a couple of furlongs to win the Wolferton but won last year’s Jersey at the Royal meeting after being placed in both the 2000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent, having won the Craven easily at this trip. With James Doyle at HQ to ride Flora Of Bermuda, Sean Levey gets back on Richard Hannon’s charge.
Well my betting interest in today’s cards did not take five minutes to evaporate. I login to go and place my bet on Haatem to find that Quddwah is now a non runner and the betting has effectively reduced to a match with Prague chasing third prize over three outsiders. It looks like I can go and make an early start on the Bastille Day card at Longchamp, although there might be more interest in the Prix de Malleret than the Grand Prix de Paris; and the biggest field on the card is a handicap featuring nine. All that prize money at three meetings in England on Saturday producing hardly a decent betting race and possibly the same in France on Sunday. It could be a ‘no bet’ weekend...
