VIP SATURDAY SANDOWN - 3.00 - BLUE BOLT 2/1 - 1 point win SANDOWN - 1.50 - SHAGRAAN 12/1 - 0.5 ew HAYDOCK - 3.15 - PADDY THE SQUIRE 7/1 - 0.5 ew HAYDOCK - 4.25 - KINGS LYNN 10/1 - 0.5 ew LEICESTER - 5.10 - BALQAA 13/2 - 0.5 ew TOTAL POINTS - 3 CORAL ECLIPSE PREVIEW: CORAL ECLIPSE DAY is here ! I had every intention of trying to take OMBUDSMAN on earlier in the week as he was odds on. I think he is good value if you can get 11/10. The each way angle has gone now with 2 places paid and only 6 runners or we would have snapped up the price of HOTAZHELL at 25/1 who is the rank outsider of the race. All have live chances - every horse is a Group 1 Winner this year - some of these are arguably still unexposed and not finished improving - scarily to say - I’m not sure we have seen the finished article from OMBUDSMAN yet who keeps getting better with each race. The fact that Buick dismounts the 2000 Guineas winner RULING COURT (Oisin rides) speaks volumes to how good they believe OMBUDSMAN to be… he’s clearly the number 1 shout for Godolphin today in terms of expectations from both connections and the market. HOTAZHELL and SOSIE especially are the two who need some rain to come. All of SOSIES G1 winning exploits in France come with cut in the ground. He is a star theres no doubt about it but I can’t bet on her unless the going has some soft in the description as I’m not taking a chance in a race like this to assume he can run a race to standard of 125+ on good-firm ground. In all honesty I’d be more surprised if he ends up running. This horse was fav a few weeks back for this race and the ARC before OMBUDSMAN ran to a projected rating of 128 at Ascot . No other horse in the line up has got near this rating - they all need to improve around 8+ lbs with a career best race to beat that Ascot form of OMBUDSMAN and this is assuming that the fav doesn’t improve again for todays race… The surprise of the day for me is that Moore has stuck with Derby flop DELACROIX 9/2 for his ride rather than CAMILLLE PISSARO 10/1. Although CAMILLES recent winning has been done in France on G-S ground she has dramatically improved and hit the high notes at the right time when winning the French Derby despite meeting worse traffic than a Monday morning on the way to work. She shouldn’t have issues with good ground as her early career in Ireland delivered numerous wins and decent performances on it. This is going to be some race today. I’m waiting to see if OMBUDSMAN gets some sort of boost and it’s imperative to get an update on the ground closer to the race before making our final decision here for the big one!!!
I'm obviously missing something here. Can someone explain to me these odds based on current form... Thursday 10th July - Betfair, Hull FC 1.78 v Wakefield 2.32 Draw 23 Do Wakefield have an injury crisis?
Bad day yesterday ….we try again…. VIP Wednesday Good morning guys - bit of a disaster yesterday - first day in a while we haven’t had any winners. Few bets today but keep it light and sensibly we have the Newmarket July Meeting starting tomorrow - Group racing for the next 3 days with the highlight being the G1 Falmouth stakes on Friday. 2.20 CATTERICK - LANGHOLM 9/2 - 1 point win All 7 of LANGHOLMS career wins have come from a mark higher than todays. Rhys Elliotts claim will have him at a mark of 46 - he’s actually 4lbs lower than all 7 winning marks. This really is a rock bottom affair at Catterick today for this apprentice handicap and it’s a good opportunity for LANGHOLM to break a losing run that stretches nearly 15 runs. We have now seen three credible efforts in a row of marks off 52. Our last attempt was a third place at 22/1 when we backed him last week. That was a class 5 race - today is a class 6 apprentice handicap. Hard to see how we aren’t involved if running to form. 5.10 - YARMOUTH - NOISY MUSIC 11/2 - 1 point win Soft ground at Yarmouth today isn’t exactly the perfect conditions for NOISY MUSIC but the price seems very good value for a bet at 11/2 with Warren Fentimans claim taking us 4lbs below our last winning mark. A frustrating horse to follow and loves a second place. Finished 2nd LTO but well ahead of rivals. Claimer could be the difference maker. 8.25 - KEMPTON - ADACE - 9/1 - 0.5 Ew - 4 paid sky You can take 12/1 best price with 365 for 3 places paid or 9/1 for 4. I’ve taken the EW with 4 places for this one - 10 runners and ADACE should be competitive here back in class 6 company and down to near last winning mark. Last win came here at track over the 7 furlongs but the mile trip is no problem for the horse who has won here at C&D in the past albeit off a lot lower mark. Recent run can here can easily be excused - young inexperienced claimer on board struggled to settle him in the stalls and as a result the horse dwelt badly when leaving the stalls costing any chance of the race - lost about 5 lengths and couldn’t recover. TOTAL POINTS - 2.5
Basically Hull FC are 8/11 and Wakefield 11/8... if you can get start Wakefield lump on... IMO they won't need the start.
VIP Newmarket Few here - going to jump on live and go through the rest of the card. Hard to take on favs in some of these races as no EW angle in short fields. 1.50 - FURTHUR 5/2 - 1 point win Not much seperates FURTHUR and SCANDANAVIA in terms of form. Both ran well in the G2 Queens Vase separated by less than a length in a bunched finish. NIGHTTIME DANCER ran in the G1 Derby - this is clearly easier than that so I don’t think he can be dismissed entirely either. I think best value is with Oisin Murphys ride - best price is 11/4 but I’ve taken 5/2 with 365. 3.35 - PALLADIUM 9/2 - 1 point win GHOSTWRITER is now evens for this race. He was last seen at Ascot in the Hardwick G2 when he finished half a length ahead of PALLADIUM. It’s clear where the value is on that basis from the top of the market. It’s clear the Clive Cox team expect further wins at Group level for GHOSTWRITER after dropping a hefty sum to pick him up this year but as I say - it’s very short. We also have tracker horse EL CORDOBES who is 15/2. Theres only 2 places so no EW angle. Seems held at listed level - I’m not convinced he’s good enough for G2… could be wrong - yards in decent form. TOTAL points 2.
VIP THURSDAY - best of rest and golf Good morning guys. Busy day ahead today. Main target for me today is the NEWMARKET meeting which has 7 Group races to look forward to over the next 3 days. In addition to this we have decent racing across the other cards today and the SCOTTISH OPEN for Golf which has started earlier this morning but can still place the bets advised as most haven’t teed off yet!! Best of rest: (Newmarket out by 11.30 am latest) 3.55 CARLISLE - ASPIRAL 2/1 - 1 point win 4.55 DONCASTER - BRIAN THE SNAIL 12/1 - 0.5 EW (4 paid sky) 6.35 - NEWBURY - SIOUX WARRIOR 12/1 - 0.5 EW - (4 paid 365) 8.10 ESPOM - ORBAAN 5/1 - 1 point win Quick write ups for these. ASPIRAL drops in class after a C4 debut when second with a decent effort showing he’s no mug. He’s not fav in this race that moniker is with the Frankel debutant who must be considered a decent one to be going off odds on here against ASPIRAL who has some solid race experience under his belt. I’m encouraged by BRIAN THE SNAILS draw today. Tends to do well when he can sneak down the rail. Won recently at class 4, deffo getting on a bit but still capable of running a good race as demonstrated at Wolves recently when he struck late of the pace with a turn off foot more reserved for a 4 year year old. 4 places cover us with Sky. He also beat PARISIAC into second at Newcastle a few months back who went on to win for us on Sunday. ORBAAN won for us LTO and is up 4lbs for that win. Good value to follow up - mark has been revised but he’s been rated 100+ in his day so I think we can try and land him again - clearly in good form with 4 good runs in a row culminating in recent win. Finally SIOUX WARRIOR looks well overpriced here. I’ve been trying to land on this horse at prices of 2/1 and 11/4. He’s been well backed in last two races but came up short by fine margins. Looks a big price here we can get 4 places covered and I can’t see why he wouldn’t be competitive based on last few attempts. SCOTTISH OPEN GOLF - 0.5 EW (3 points total) TOMMY FLEETWOOD 28/1 JUSTIN THOMAS 33/1 HARRIS ENGLISH 75/1 RYAN FOX 60/1 LUDVIG ABERG 35/1 ADAM SCOTT 90/1 GOOD LUCK ALL !! Newmarket out soon!
