Danon Decile will not like it soft right enough Ron. That is a pity they won't face off for a third time as I was confident the Colt would improve past her this year. I was right about Sosie blotting his copy book in the Eclipse and said ages ago that he need not bother coming over for the Eclipse. Wrong race and wrong trip for him, he must have been showing Andre Fabre something he has never show at the track. Fabre is not the trainer he used to be when raiding these shores. You could set your watch by him in the 90s but success is few and far between for him here now. I had nominated Frances Graffard several years ago as the trainer who would rule French Racing in the future and I think we are getting close to that point now. Fabre and Rouget are getting old and/or unwell now and trainers such as Alex Pantall, who had the biggest stable in France at one time don't seem to have much joy at the top level. The race betting is messy to say the least, 14/1 the Field as I had expected with Sosie's demise and some stinking value. John Gosden said Ombudsman was done for stamina today, so why the hell is he Co Fav for a 2 furlong further race in October? Field Of Gold at 20/1, come off it. He won't be running. Lake Victoria 16/1? she won't get that trip in a horse box. Arm up the back and I would go with Lambourn. O'Brien has run worse horses than him in the race and he seems likely to get conditions to suit, can make his own running and the Lads are unlikely to see a field as messed up, mediocre and confused as this in many a year. Sosie already backed 20/1 Lambourn second dart at 16/1
Still got Aventure, Los Angeles and Jan Brughel going for me Obviously Regaleira would have pissed it
It is difficult to know what to make of the changes to the Arc betting following Saturday’s action. Clearly the bookmaker chappies have over-reacted to Sosie’s effort over ten furlongs at Sandown and the soppy excuse given by the jockey about the horse not handling the track. Last year’s Arc fourth, previously winner of the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance, is now out to 16/1. That means that Minnie Hauk has inherited favouritism at 14/1 along with stable companion Whirl and the mug bet Ombudsman (almost certain to not be in Paris on the first weekend in October). Kalpana had already been pushed out to 16/1 after defeat by Whirl over ten furlongs. Daryz, Jan Brueghel and Lambourn are all available at 16/1. My pick Aventure is still available at 20/1 along with Delacroix. Despite winning the Lancashire Oaks, Estrange is out to 25/1 and that is probably a fair reflection of her chances at the moment (hard ridden to beat a 107 rated mare). If she heads for the Yorkshire Oaks she would need to win it to be considered a realistic contender. I cannot recall the betting ever having been this open in the first week of July. Usually by now there would be a clear favourite from one of the English/French/Irish Classics or there would be one of the older horses that had sidestepped the Arc as a three year old. What is no surprise is that five of the first ten in the betting are stabled at Ballydoyle so the bookies know at least three of them are unlikely to be in the field on 5th October and Ryan Moore can only be on one.
With Calandagan ineligible for the Arc, little surprise that his closest rival at Ascot, Kalpana, has taken over the mantle of favouritism at around 8/1. Jan Brueghel is now out to 33/1, the same odds as Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard. If the plan for Aidan O’Brien’s St Leger winner is the Arc then the Prix Foy on the Arc Trials day card looks the obvious stepping stone.
