Daily Racing Thread Saturday 5th. July 2025

Saturday's Meetings

Haydock
Flat 7 Races 1:30-4:55p.m.
Sandown
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
Naas
Flat 7 Races 1:57-5:20p.m.
Beverley
Flat 7 Races 2:13-5:42p.m.
Leicester(E)
Flat 6 Races 4:03-6:48p.m.
Carlisle(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:00-8:12p.m.
Bellewstown(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m.
Nottingham(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:53-8:53p.m.

Racecards
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Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

The Eclipse has been hyped up to the tits. I saw it described as an "Eclipse for the ages" despite there only being six runners and an odds-on favourite who is well clear on the ratings.

I had backed Ruling Court in the expectation that Field Of Gold would miss the race. I had hated the fact that Ruling Court was aimed at the St James' Palace because I felt he got away lucky in the Guineas and would need 10f as a minimum going forward. Even my pessimism was exceeded with the way Ruling Court ran at Ascot and listening to Charlie Appleby later became convinced they would duck meeting older horses for now. Even though I didn't get any benefit from backing ante post with Ombudsman parachuting into the race after an impressive Ascot win. I feel Ruling Court is the most likely to trouble the now hot favourite getting the age allowance.

I have seen Sosie described as a superstar but even though he was my ante post bet for the Arc at 20/1 he is nowhere near superstar level yet. I feel Sosie needs a mile and a half and even if he was a good bet at the 10f trip last time at the early odds against I did not back him at 12/1 for the Eclipse in the immediate aftermath, stating that he need not bother coming over for the Eclipse. I hope he doesn't make me eat my words.
I don't fancy Delacroix or Camille Pissaro as the form does not look strong enough. I know Delacroix beat Lambourn but that was over a shorter trip and the Derby winner's forte is clearly stamina.

Hotazhell is rightfully the rank outsider, arguably needing cut in the ground and it can never have been the plan to be tackling older horses in his second start of the season.

I feel Ruling Court is the best value having expected him to improve for stepping up in trip. Not hard to see why Buick prefers the favourite after Ruling Court's poor effort last time. On some ratings Ombudsman is well clear but the official ratings for him and Ruling Court are 128 to 121 and the younger horse gets 7 lbs from the 4yo.

Ruling Court 9/1
Saver forecast Ombudsman/Ruling Court

 

Two big meetings today stuffed with 14 races and yet there is not one 2yo race on either card. It used to be a rule of racing that there was always a 2yo race on every card but that has gone. With about 30% of Flat horses in training being 2yos that seems strange and perhaps wrong. Instead we are treated to a couple of tasty morsels (the Eclipse and the Lancashire Oaks; although with small fields) and a series of non-descript handicaps.

I know I'm being disingenuous here because if there were 2yo races today there would probably be hardly any runners in them. There's a problem here, and that's that watering of tracks, which is now endemic (thou shalt not produce going with the word firm in it) and has led to a negative spiral of horses that can only run on going that has the word soft in it. So, horses are bred from sires (and mares) who were at their best on such going and we judge horses on whether they are worthy of being sires from results of races on such going.

Then we wonder why we don't get great horses anymore. How many horses get the 135 ratings tag these days? Very few and it's been on a downward spiral since the '90s. Tracks didn't used to be watered, horses even 2yos used to skip over firm ground.

Basically to run on firm ground you have to have perfect conformation. If a horse has a dodgy leg or shoulder it found it difficult to fully stretch out on firm ground but easier to do so on soft ground. People used to refer to their actions being scratchy. Not anymore, because these deficiencies are catered for.

Look at pictures of Nijinsky, he was poetry in motion on firm ground. Look at Mill Reef, who had a perfect action. So perfect he even skipped over soft/heavy ground.

Sadly we are judging horses with the wrong ruler and racing is the worst for it.

And even when they do water we moan because they can't water uniformly and we get a going bias or even worse false ground.

Racing will go on and we will be served up this thin gruel, and bless those horses that succeed. We can always have exciting handicaps (sic).

 

Thank you for mentioning Nijinsky. The horse that made me love racing as every time he raced he won (well at least the races I saw on the tv as a nipper). Surely one of the horses that is under appreciated.

 

I am guessing that the disappointing field of just four in the Lancashire Oaks (Haydock 2.40) is because of Estrange now being a talking horse after one spectacular success. Her main rival is Scenic but this is a race to be avoided as the two three year olds are just here for place money, this will be tactical and may turn into a sprint in the straight. If Estrange does not hammer Scenic then all talk of the Arc can be forgotten as the latter is only rated 107 and is quite a reliable Group 3 level yardstick. If Estrange does not win hard held on the bit or by five lengths then she should be scratched from the Arc betting. Her Timeform adjusted rating today is 122p, 5lb better than Scenic.

There is also a disappointing field of just six for the Eclipse (Sandown 3.35), with Ombudsman having scared off almost all of the older horses after his impressive victory at Royal Ascot. The quick ground is an unknown with French raider Sosie but he has won two Group 1s this term in the Prix Ganay (just holding Map Of Stars, who did nothing for the form by being well beaten at Ascot by Ombudsman) and the Prix d’Ispahan (beating the Gosdens’ Sardinian Warrior). Ryan Moore has deserted Prix Du Jockey Club victor Camille Pissarro for beaten Derby favourite Delacroix and I expect that the Ballydoyle duo will have cooked up some tactic to try and defeat the Gosden favourite today; however, the three year old form does not look good enough. Hotazhell ran a respectable reappearance in the Irish 2000 Guineas but needs to improve markedly for the extra two furlongs to feature here. Lucky 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court was thrashed by the HQ runner-up at Ascot and only looks good enough to make this a Godolphin 1-2 following Buick home on the favourite.

There are two or three runners today from the Haggas barn that appear to be a little short in the betting because of where they live and the trainer’s reputation rather than actual form, like the Haydock 2.05. In the Coral Distaff (3.00), favourite Blue Bolt from the Andrew Balding barn is too short for my liking in a race where the Gosden and Haggas runners are likely to be stacked up behind her waiting to pounce in the run up the hill to the winning post. I would not want to back Cajole based on her Royal Ascot second as I think that the handicap form from that meeting is likely to be unreliable because of the draw bias. The unbeaten Victory Queen is another like the favourite who could be a Group horse in a Listed race; and Supermodel won a modest six runner handicap on her return with plenty to spare.

In the Coral Challenge (2.25), seasonal debutant Treasure Time from the Haggas yard appears to owe his place at the head of the betting to where he lives as his record is two wins from six runs in handicaps; and when last seen failed to follow up on a win at the Ebor meeting when an ‘unlucky in running’ fourth at Doncaster, a remark that applies to his defeat at Goodwood in the run before York. Several of the others here ran at the Royal meeting: how many had a hard race? Mirsky led the stands’ side group in the Buckingham Palace but finished thirteenth with Two Tempting just behind and Tarkhan never a factor. Hi Royal was out with the washing on the far side in the Royal Hunt Cup where Galeron was a place behind on the stands’ side but Greek Order was fourth on the stands’ side. The Charlie Johnston yard is in good form and Arisaig ran a good second at Ascot in May before being a no show in the Kensington Palace from an unfavourable low draw; and could bounce back here. So looking at those that avoided the Royal meeting, Classic was second over course and distance last time, managing to find traffic trouble in a five runner field. Principality also found traffic trouble in a five runner field here and now steps up a furlong further but only has one win in eight career starts. Tribal Rhythm only has one win in seven career starts, that being at Epsom where he was subsequently well beaten behind Mirsky. So that leaves me with CLASSIC ENCOUNTER, winner of two of his four 2025 starts and placed in two races at HQ in between. The 4lb rise for his win at York three weeks ago does not look excessive and Billy Loughnane takes over from William Buick.

At Haydock in the Old Newton Cup (3.15) the betting is very cramped around three of the runners. It looks easy to eliminate most of the outsiders with eight year old Enemy on topweight for his seasonal reappearance, Night Breeze now 6lb higher than winning an Ascot handicap but a well beaten fifth at Epsom since, Box To Box won his first race in two years last time at this track but has another 6lb in a much better race, Sol Cayo won his first turf race in a three runner Pontefract contest last time and is now 6lb higher; and Great Bedwyn won a York handicap on his return but was ten lengths behind Night Breeze at Epsom last time. Chillingham was awarded his first victory in two years in the Queen Mother’s Cup last time at the expense of non-runner My Dream World but looks opposable on a 4lb higher mark. Stablemate Minstrel Knight has three career wins on ground good or softer and started his campaign with a fourth at Hamilton on easy ground. Midnight Lion has been making a living on the kitty litter at Newcastle, his only turf win coming two years ago when trained by Charlie Johnston. So Jim Goldie’s gelding probably won’t be troubling the judge today under his regular claimer. Bottomweight Sportingsilvermine is Timeform top rated in this but is hard to fancy on either of his two most recent efforts, a well beaten fourth at HQ and beaten favourite in a five runner affair at Lingfield. Paddy The Squire is one of the front three in the betting. Both of his career wins have been on good or softer ground, his latest on return at Chester. Last time he was third in a good handicap at York and now he steps up in trip and he ought to go well today. Stressfree never went a yard in the Duke Of Edinburgh so that can be ignored but he won at this track the time before; however, all his five career wins have come on good or softer ground. Plage De Havre, from the hot Andrew Balding yard, thrashed Midnight Lion on the Newcastle kitty litter and has yet to win on turf. He was behind Stressfree when last seen at York and I would prefer the O’Meara horse’s chances at the prices. Sir Lowry’s Pass is too short a priced favourite here on just his seventh start. Both his career wins have been at Goodwood and he was third when favourite for the Zetland Gold Cup last time and looks like he could become expensive to follow. The one that does take my eye is the David Menuisier trained CITY OF DELIGHT. He won over ten furlongs at Doncaster first time out and followed up at Epsom (Stressfree third). Most recently he never challenged an easy Wathnan racing winner at Windsor that made all, where he was favourite to complete a hat trick. The extra distance here might be to his benefit as he always has to be produced late. I just hope he is not too far back today like he was at Windsor.

 

I am struggling to recall if there ever were any two year old races on the Eclipse card. I cannot recall there being any on the occasions that I went to Sandown and the card has been juggled around with in the last couple of seasons. The long distance race that used to be on the Saturday was moved to Friday’s card, I suspect so that the 50th anniversary of Coral sponsorship handicap could be inserted today. There was a six furlong nursery on last year’s Haydock card that was run but three races around the bend were abandoned after the Lancashire Oaks.

There are some two year old races today at the lesser meetings. The first two races at Beverley are for juveniles, there are none on the gimmick female jockeys card at Carlisle this evening; and there is one at each of the evening cards at Leicester and Nottingham. There are three juvenile races at Naas this afternoon and Ballydoyle only has the favourite in the Listed Pat Smullen Stakes.

 

My first selection was never given a chance as Classic (with no Encounter) made all and the numpty riding Classic Encounter got boxed in at the back, never put in the race and then not-knocked-about staying on that I will not back next time if the same numpty is on it. A good run in second by the Charlie Johnston filly Arisaig but the bookies will have noted that too.

In the Lancashire Oaks, one Arc bubble was burst...

 

Was there anything to like about that running of the Eclipse (unless you backed Delacroix)? I suspect that absolutely nobody – including the jockeys – thought that it would unfold that way.

If that race had been run in France then the field being covered by a blanket would have told you that it was run at the usual married man’s gallop; so it is easy to deride the form on those grounds.

Moore wanted to go up the inside on Delacroix but got blocked by Camille Pissarro and had to go around the outside. Ombudsman, having sweated up in the preliminaries, got to the lead but could not quicken away like he did at Ascot. Ruling Court looked okay in the parade ring but he had sweated up down at the start, managed to get himself into trouble but was never going to catch the first two. Maxine Guyon claimed that Sosie did not handle the track but the reality is that his best two career performances were last year over twelve furlongs at Longchamp. If he has to have a flat track then he won’t be leaving Paris and winning anywhere.