But that is the case with many thoroughbreds Bustino. Our Dancing Brave granddaughter (sadly deceased) was very immature when we got her and only began to look the real deal when she was about 5
Seriously though, that's because most horses have been on the go since they were barely 2 and not fully developed. Also, of course, most horses (by definition) aren't good enough to win anyway. Late developers that are very capable and therefore worth continuing with are few and far between. But if they are good enough they will improve up to age 5. JB is only 4 and lightly raced
I'm sure you are right in everything you say Ron, though I do have a slightly different view on 2yos. As regards Alpinista she was a lovely filly who bloomed as a 4yo. In fact after Torquator Tasso won the Arc a lot of discussion centred on Alpinista having beaten him and that if entered she'd probably have won the Arc. She didn't have to improve to win her Arc. I'm pro stayers and if more races were truly run more horses like Jan Breughel and perhaps Lambourn would be the stars of the sport. It is very worrying that we have not had many outstanding horses in the last 20 years. What has gone wrong?
The Prix de Diane might have created more questions than answers. As expected, Merrily went off in front but I wondered why Moore dropped Bedtime Story out last (riding her like a doubtful stayer?). When the Ballydoyle filly came wide and late the winner had already gone. Shes Perfect was ridden like she would stay (the right thing to do) by Kieran Shoemark and she had every chance with two furlongs to go hitting the front but she was treading water when Mandanaba and Cankoura went past her almost immediately and Shoemark eased her off. As the winner split the front two, Barzalona stopped riding Mandanaba, settling for fourth with the other two Graffard fillies ahead of him. Does Mandanaba simply want further (has not got the tactical speed for ten furlongs)? My pick Better Together was never better than fifth so it was impossible to tell whether she simply was not good enough or did not stay. Soumillon got first run on Moore and there was not enough race left for him to bridge the gap. The race was four seconds quicker than the handicap over the same trip earlier on the card but the winner of that ladies’ race was a ten year old carrying 10st 7lb! The following Arab race over a hundred yards less was nearly six seconds slower. It will be interesting to read this week’s column by Timeform’s French correspondent to see what the sectionals were for the last three furlongs at Chantilly as they may show that the runner-up was fastest and the winner second fastest. So what is the plan for the Graffard fillies? It seems likely that one or more of them will head to the Prix Vermeille with the Arc in mind. Gezora has clearly improved past Mandanaba, who beat her more than four lengths in the Prix Vanteaux but the way she picked up to catch her stablemates makes me wonder if she is in fact a ten furlong filly while both Mandanaba and Cankoura might want stepping up in trip. Interviewed afterwards, Soumillon was of the view that Gezora could be aimed at the Vermeille and the bookies have her generally 16/1 for the Arc with runner-up Bedtime Story 20/1 with only one firm. I cannot see Bedtime Story going further than ten, which is why all the other layers have no odds. Neither of the other two Graffard fillies are priced up and I do not think there will be many takers for 66/1 Shes Perfect (she will be next seen back over a mile). Aventure remains 16/1 in a number of places after the form of her Prix Allez France win was let down by runner-up Mme Jourdain in the Listed Prix Pawneese, won by unfancied Saxon Girl in a photo, with the Fabre trained favourite second last.
After Los Angeles was thrashed in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (largely thanks to him and the pacemaker Continuous setting off like it was a five furlong dash), the layers have perhaps overreacted by pushing him out to 20/1. The winner Ombudsman, who looks like a ten furlong horse (a point made by trainer John Gosden in post-race interviews), has been introduced at 16/1 whilst third home See The Fire is 20/1 in one place (her reported target is the Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares over ten furlongs). Will Los Angeles continue to be campaigned over ten or will they switch him to twelve furlongs? I cannot see him beating Ombudsman but switching to twelve might mean taking on Jan Brueghel or Lambourn. Last week’s Prix de Diane winner Gezora is still generally a 16/1 chance, shorter than the first two in The Oaks; and the one firm that was offering Bedtime Story has (rightly in my view) removed her. There are now 5 three year olds in the first 14 in the betting (i.e. 20/1 or less) but four of them live at Ballydoyle along with two of the older horses. So a familiar pattern is developing of the ante post book being stuffed with Coolmore horses when we know that on the day only a couple of them will line up at Longchamp.
It was not difficult to be underwhelmed by Lambourn in the Irish Derby. The horses that were all supposed to be the main opposition never threatened to challenge, all running on when the race was over or running no sort of race at all; and their trainers making excuses about the ground. The assessor won’t be changing Lambourn’s rating for this effort – he was better at Epsom. When I look at the list of horses trained by O’Brien that have done the Epsom-Irish Derby double, it immediately comes to my notice that there is not an Arc winner amongst them: Galileo never ran, High Chaparral was third, wonder horse Camelot was seventh, wonder horse Australia never ran, wonder horse Auguste Rodin never ran. There is no wonder horse hype this year. That will explain why Lambourn is still a 16/1 chance for 5th October at Longchamp. Also I think it is more likely that what appears to be just a relentless galloper is more likely to be seen on Town Moor in September. Saturday’s Pretty Polly did little to impact the market with Oaks runner-up Whirl seeing off Kalpana in what turned out to be pretty much a two horse race as they battled out the last furlong. Andre Balding’s filly drifted out to 16/1 having shortened in the two days prior to the race; and there is no rush to back Whirl with her stablemate and Oaks conqueror Minnie Hauk 14/1 ahead of her in the betting. The lacklustre showing of Survie in third saw my ante post fancy Aventure pushed out to 20/1, including with Paddy Power where I took 16/1. The only other significant movement saw Daryz clipped to 16/1 after the three year old maintained his unbeaten record with victory in the Prix Eugene Adam over ten furlongs at Saint Cloud, a race in which Prix Du Jockey Club also-rans Sinileo and Parachutiste finished third and last respectively. George Scott’s Bay City Roller finished second having previously occupied the same position in the Listed Heron Stakes, so on paper this is not high quality form but Francis-Henri Graffard’s colt can only beat what is there.
Sosie puts his credentials to the test in the Eclipse on Saturday. He was 12/1 for that race immediately after beating Sardinian Warrior last time but I said then that he need not bother coming over for the Eclipse and I stand by that sentiment. He made pretty heavy weather of beating the Gosden horse that day and was almost certainly helped by the fact that Sardinian Warrior did not see out the 10 furlongs that day. Sosie's task had been given a boost by Field Of Gold being given a break but almost instantly was kicked in the goolies with Ombudsman emerging from Ascot as an assured performer at the trip. Eleven in the field for the Eclipse as I write but I have a feeling Appleby will pull Ruling Court and divert him to his own age group in the Grand Prix De Paris. Should Sosie prevail in the Eclipse he will be a clear fav for the Arc at single figure odds but I rather feel he will be defeated and it will be wide open at 14/1 the field.
I hope so. Why are you referring to her as a Pegasus? She was down the field in her latest race, not that that bothers me at all. I raised this one before she was quoted, then she entered the betting at 66/1
Can't see that Japanese horse winning, she has tons to find. I would prefer the Japanese colt Danon Decile. This 4yo has only run 7 times and won four. His most recent success was at Meydan in the Sheema Classic. It is the horses that were behind him that day that point to his chance for me. A length and a quarter behind was Calandagan in second place, with Rebels Romance beaten a little over 3 lengths in 4th. Those two, more familiar horses, both won recently, in Gp1 and Gp2 company respectively. It was a good win for Danon Decile in the Sheema Classic, with Rebels Romance kicking early in similar fashion to his Hardwicke success at Royal Ascot before the finishers came to pick him off late with Danon Decile and Calandagan quickening well but Danon Decile showing strong resolve to hold off the recent Grand Prix De Saint Cloud winner. Not seen since then but entered in the Juddmonte International at the Ebor meeting I feel Danon Decile is probably underestimated considering the Japanese Derby and Sheema Classic are on his CV. 14/1 for the Juddmonte, while his beaten foe sits at 5/1 seems a bit out of kilter to me and I will be monitoring the race closely. I would certainly give him every chance of Arc success, in a year where there is no obvious contender and plenty scope for his 20/1 odds to shorten. This was his win in Dubai
Regaleira was coming off a 175 days break when running down the field over 11f just over 2 weeks ago but prior to that she beat Danon Decile by 1½L in a G1 over an extended 12f
