Friday's Meetings Market Rasen N/H 7 Races 2:05-5:45p.m. Redcar Flat 6 Races 2:15-5:15p.m. Royal Ascot Flat 7 Races 2:30-6:10p.m. Down Royal(E) Flat 8 Races 4:35-8:30p.m. Newmarket(E) Flat 7 Races 4:47-8:25p.m. Goodwood(E) Flat 6 Races 5:20-8:13p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
3.40-Siege of Troy Each Way [5 places], current odds are 18-1 Think she will relish the fast conditions
I took the 3/1 4 places the AOB in the first... other than that watching brief to see if the COC has adjusted the bias... have had three or four pounds on Nancy J (badly drawn) at 120 on Betfair for something to watch... trainer said in RP 'she could have a great chance'.
From my betting perspective it is very easy to dismiss almost the entire Friday card. I do not do the two year olds at Royal Ascot and the shape of the betting on the handicaps immediately tells me not to waste my time – the price of the Haggas favourite in the last is laughable. So what does that leave? Well in the King Edward VII Stakes (5.35), known as the Ascot Derby, the unbeaten favourite that has never been to Epsom is a short price to account for a horse that ran poorly in The Derby, one that skipped it after finishing third in the Dante; and a couple of Irish horses, one that won a weak Derby trial but then skipped the main event and one that won a Listed race with plenty to spare. Backing the winner of the Coronation Stakes (4.20) last year got me out of a hole but this year’s race betting revolves around two fillies that could win but make no betting appeal. Zarigana got the Pouliches in the stewards’ room (whether you liked the decision or not) and this does appear to be her trip. The quick ground is a concern for her today. Falakeyah was very impressive at Newmarket but the decision to drop her back to a mile rather than take in the Prix de Diane looks questionable. She has the Timeform ‘P’ and could well be good enough to beat Zarkava’s granddaughter but the form of her Pretty Polly demolition has been let down by everything that has run since. That just leaves the Commonwealth Cup (3.05). We do not know how good the American raider Shisospicy might be (won over five-and-a-half last time Stateside) and the layers are offering generous prices but at the business end of the betting, Colin Keane has chosen Babouche (beat Whistlejacket over six furlongs at Naas) over Jonquil (won the Greenham, second in the Poulains); and the one to beat is the 2000 Guineas third Shadow Of Light taking the Ajdal route straight back to sprinting (won the Middle Park at this trip as a juvenile). No surprise that he is Timeform’s top rated and I expect him to end Appleby’s Royal Ascot drought.
Ascot Friday selections... 2:30 - Fitzella, 5/1, Gold Digger, 10/1 3:05 - Ides of March, 9/1, Shisospicy, 10/1 3:40 - Siege of Troy, 14/1, French Duke, 5/1 4:20 - January, 13/2, Exactly, 10/1 5:00 - Zgharta, 8/1, Dash of Azure, 11/2 5:35 - Zahrann, 2/1 6:10 - Brighton Boy, 6/1, Zayer, 8/1 Good luck if you are having a play today...
Each way patent in the handicaps 3:40 - Siege of Troy, 14/1 5:00 - Purple Rainbow, 18/1 6:10 - Maw Lam, 33/1
Going change.... I can confirm my garden has changed from good to firm, to firm with hard in places..!! (despite watering)
Make or break for me today with Shadow Of Light. Backed him ante-post for the Commonwealth Cup and he faces a big field. My confidence has been dampened by the Appleby team's form this week. They haven't had much joy from what had looked a decent hand coming in. Drawn 19 of the 22 runners he is next to 2nd Fav Babouche in box 18. US runner Shisospicy has been tipped in some places but is on the other side in trap 2. They have first time blinkers and first time tongue tie on her, so surely feel she has more to give. There are 10 fillies in this year's race, a big contrast to last season when there was only one. Babouche got the better of Whistlejackket last time but I think Jonquil could be a bigger danger. His run behind Henri Mattise looks solid form but for me it is hard to forget Shadow Of Light only getting beaten narrowly by Field Of Gold in the Guineas and that looks the best 3YO performer of the year with the Gosden Grey likely to inherit a 129 rating next Tuesday. For some fun I did Green Sense in the Albany, the form looks solid but as usual the OBrien filly will probably turn the form around so I did a forecast with her. 2.30 Green Sense 6/1 Forecast Signora to beat Green Sense.
Mine has 2 goings - swamp or concrete. Been at concrete going for several weeks now. A couple of weeks of rain & damp weather have not affected the going
Venetian Sun was all over the Royal Ascot ante post markets early doors but drifted out. Probably, like me, punters could not have a winning 1/2 Fav from a Carlisle novice race winning an Albany.
Charlie Appleby has said that Shadow Of Light hated the ground today. Maybe that's the reasoning behind all his runners this week, because he has had terrible run. Well done anyone who had the tricast in the Commonwealth Cup, it paid £13500. I am against Zarigana at the odds and took Chantilly Lace at 20/1 for a fun pick. 5th in the 1000 Guineas on only her second start, she is entitled to improve. 4.20 Ascot Chantilly Lace 20/1
If anything I jinxed you Boil over in the Coronation, a bookies benefit yet they are still shortening up almost everything in the races. I saw an over-round of 124%, so much for a 10% profit margin. The everyday punters are being ripped off.
Its shocking what this COC has done without being honest. Patently, a tonne of water has been put on the stand side... its two fingers up to the racing public... I did say earlier, I expected exactly this... The going stick report this morning.... stands 8.7.... centre 8.4 .... far side 8.5.... so all of a sudden the far side has found what 10 lengths....?
