WAR! What is it good for?

My remark was an off the cuff one, which you have chewed on, one that I made because you seem deaf at the prospect of me not wanting to engage that particular debate (the West Bank).

I don't believe I've ever made references to the West Bank (if I have then I no longer wish to do so), but if you really want to drag me into this debate, I'll oblige....if you throw stones at men with guns, there is always the likelyhood you will get shot, regardless the reason for your stone throwing.

Didn't the same happen in Northern Ireland once?

Do I think soldiers should shoot stone throwers no, do I think people should take other people's land, no but I'm not an Israeli so it's not for me to judge the fundamental background of the West Bank.

Do I want to get dragged into a discussion about the WB, once again no. Why?...because you seem to know it all and I have nothing to add.

Do I like you care about a war thousands of miles away, no.

Do I care about what Iran does, yes, why?...because their agents are a threat to the UK. As you seem to love BBC articles so much... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c753n27n5rvo If you dispute this take it up with UK officials.

 

I encourage you to read the full and most recent IAEA report. It's 22 pages so I can understand a reluctance to do so, but basing your arguments on dated pull quotes from a Google search is unwise.

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-25.pdf

Unlike you, the IAEA report draws little to no link between Iran's acceleration towards a bomb and the US withdrawal from the Obama deal.

It does this because Iran has been a signatory of the NPT agreement since 1970. It ratified this in 1974 and didn't withdraw its signature after the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

More crucial than this was Iran signing to what is called an Additional Protocol which agrees to more extensive inspections and compliance, in 2003.

The IAEA report reveals that at the same time as doing this, i.e. pulling the wool over everyone's eyes, Iran opened and started using four secret facilities which are now known to be:

Turquzabad
Lavishan-shian
Varamin
Marivan

Each facility was being used as far back as 2003 for the enrichment of uranium and treatment of depleted uranium.

In 2014 and as part of its JCPA deal with Obama, Iran agreed to the dissolution of all nuclear material from these sites.

An IAEA inspection later that year flagged discrepancies in the amount of nuclear material first detected and that delivered by the regime for safe removal. Since then and up until the current report, the IAEA assessment is that there is a large amount of nuclear material that is "unaccounted for" and for which "no credible explanation has been provided".



I urge you to stand down on this one, you are totally wrong. I also note the irony of you of all people ignoring the opinion of a UN agency.

 

I’ll read it

Also I’m not ignoring anything

what I’m saying is that since Trump ripped up the Iran deal. Iran have had no incentive to stick to ANY nuclear agreements.

Israel launching an attack on Iran simply accelerates that process.

And the fact that Netanyahu has stated that his aim is regime change, then expect the regime to double down.

completely the wrong approach. Netanyahu needs removing from the equation and the JPCOA need to get back to negotiating with Iran.

 

Trump withdrew from the deal because Iran wasn't keeping to it.

That's what's been going on at those four secret facilities.

Netanyahu needs removing from the equation, absolutely. But Israel isn't the only reason Iran is desperate for a bomb. It seeks regional dominance hence it's deep involvement in conflicts nothing to do with Israel such as Sudan, Syria and Yemen...a question I'm still waiting for Fosse to explain.

 

I’ve absolutely no doubt that Iran have been operating outside of the agreements drawn up by the JPOCA. But Trump canning the deal has done the exact opposite of what it set out to achieve.

The nuclear deal, even though far from perfect, was a working agreement that gave the west leverage over Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump could and should have enacted the sanction facility if Iran weren’t complying with the deal. Binning it off has given Iran the opportunity to do whatever they want now with no oversight.

And whilst Iran have been enriching uranium, they have had the potential capacity for producing a weapon for months and months. As tulsi gabbard stated (and I’m not usually one to be backing this republican administration) that if Israel thought Iran were developing a weapon, they would have shared that intel with the US and struck at all of the facilities.

The fact is at the moment, is that there is no evidence that Iran are producing a nuclear weapon. But what has happened due to Israel’s attacks, is that it has now accelerated the potential for the regime to develop one

it’s naive beyond belief, and Netanyahu has now put his own people in the firing line. Not that he cares

 

I agree that the incentive to cooperate was diminished.

But "no oversight" is a mistake.

As I said, any member of the NPT is obligated to allow IAEA oversight.

Indeed, that oversight has actually increased since Trump pulled out in 2019, and has led directly to the report just released. Most of the evidence and findings in that report are from inspections and investigations carried out in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2024.

It is because of the lack of a (false) security blanket in the JPCA that the IAEA have massively stepped up their own efforts.

If Iran wants to end oversight, it needs to withdraw from the NPT which is what North Korea did. But doing that pretty much broadcasts a message to the entire world: 'we're building a bomb'.

 

The US intelligence states that they are not though. If anything, the ultra jittery US intelligence services would err towards worst case scenario if they thought Iran were ‘building a bomb’

There’s a difference between capacity to do something and actually doing something.

What has happened is that Netanyahu has lit the blue touch paper towards Iran actually carrying it out though.

 

I hope people remember this moment

Those backing the attacks in Iran and the calls for regime change, would do well to remember their own stance on calling Tony Blair a war criminal for invading Iraq.

There’s nothing I like about the Iranian regime, but trying to forcibly remove it ? Have we learned nothing from the last 30 years of western military intervention in the Middle East.

We need to get back round the table with Iran over this nuclear deal, because at the moment we have madmen in Iran, Israel and the US calling the shots.

 

A year ago, Anthony Blinken said that Iran was a week or two away from reaching the purification point necessary to produce 8 nuclear warheads.

Nothing in current reports contradicts this.

The only evidence anyone has that Iran doesn't intend to build a bomb is that it has told everyone it doesn't want to build a bomb. Its uranium stockpiles now far exceed anything that would be needed for a domestic energy programme - as confirmed by your mate Tulsi.

 

This confirms the point I’m making though. Iran have had the capacity to develop a weapon for over a year….but haven’t.

So why has Israel attacked them now ?

I would argue that has more to do with Netanyahu’s desire to ‘reshape the middle east in Israel’s favour’ than anything to do with Iran’s nuclear programme

his approach will do nothing but accelerate Iran towards actually making a nuclear weapon.

 

TLDR

... but you don't solve the problems in the Middle East WITHOUT resolving the situation in The West Bank ... which is the point I've been making ...

 

As I've hinted above, the cynic in me thinks the timing of this is not 'coincidental' - and it ain't down to any 'new' intelligence - as Ponky has shown - but there is growing Western dissatisfaction with Israeli intransigence in terms of ending this war - and actually getting those remaining hostages back alive - so much so that countries like France and the UK are even considering formal recognition of 'Palestine' ... this was due for discussion at the New York summit this month ...

Benny needed a distraction from that ... he's now got himself a 'Boogieman' to frighten the world with ... and with which to shift the goalposts...

Now I did prefix this with 'the cynic in me' ... so it should be taken in context ...

 

All major threats to the world ... just like The Falklands ... whose watch?

 

Who's side are we on with this one then?

 

Whichever side isn't Israel.

Don't you know the rules?

 

No I'm pretty naive when it comes to foreign politics and why this all kicks off now and then. Whenever I start reading there seems to reasons to blame both sides and it's difficult to trust the source material now that everything is online so I just ignore it and hope it goes away again.

 

Me if the bombs ever get launched.

 

It's actually my fault tbh. Just a couple of weeks ago I was saying to my nipper that it might be okay to rearrange our Jordan trip soon.

 

Ffs Libby

well done mate, thanks a bunch

 

You’re right to be cynical.

It’s no coincidence that the US and Iran were due to meet this weekend to try and get the nuclear deal back on track

Doesn’t take a genius to work out why Israel might want to derail that process….