Saturday's Meetings Epsom Downs Flat 8 Races 1:00-5:40p.m. The Derby Off @ 3:30p.m. Punchestown N/H 8 Races 1:10-5:20p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 1:20-4:55p.m. Worcester N/H 8 Races 1:50-5:55p.m. Navan Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:35p.m. Doncaster(E) Flat 8 Races 4:00-7:50p.m. Hexham(E) N/H 6 Races 4:05-6:50p.m. Chepstow(E) Flat 8 Races 5:30-9:00p.m. Lingfield(E) Flat 7 Races 5:34-8:40p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
I am hopelessly out of form, apologies for any rubbish that I have shared and to the cliff jumpers who followed me over. Too hard today, not knowing what level of soft we will get, so will just watch Derby Ante Posts with interest.
The thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians or zoologists, but on a piece of wood,' said Tesio. 'The winning post of the Epsom Derby
Let's see if CoPilot can do it again. Nice Tricast yesterday. Based on the composite ranking, Ruling Court looks like the strongest candidate for victory. It leads the rankings with a Composite Score of 1.068, boosted by an excellent Speed Rating (73.471), strong GA (1.352), and favorable Draw IV (1.27). This combination suggests it has the right mix of pace, positioning, and late-race stamina to put in a winning performance. However, The Lion In Winter (1.059) is close behind, and with its high Draw IV (3.0), it could get the best track position early. If it capitalizes on that tactical advantage. Pride Of Arras (0.98) now ranks where it should, carrying a Draw IV of 2.5, alongside solid speed figures. It remains a serious threat in the final stages. Race-Day Scenarios If early positioning matters, expect The Lion In Winter. ⚡ If late-race speed wins out, Ruling Court is best placed for success. If track conditions favor closers, Pride Of Arras or Stanhope Gardens could upset expectations. It’s shaping up to be a thrilling battle among top-ranked horses, with Ruling Court the likeliest winner—but not guaranteed!
It looks like the incompetents that run Epsom racecourse are probably going to pay the penalty for their stupidity. They were still watering the course on Tuesday despite the weather forecast for rain on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Yesterday that saw the Oaks run on going described as Good to Soft, Good in places. With rain forecast for Saturday (the Met Office gives a 90% probability of rain after 2pm as well as frequent showers ‘heavy and thundery’ in the morning), the reported morning going of Good, Good to Soft in places looks unlikely to hold true. The layers will surely be looking to fill their satchels with bets on the doubtful stayers in the field for The Derby. The likes of Tornado Alert and Ruling Court will drift further (already out to 50/1 and 13/2 respectively). Currently, according to Oddschecker, the best book is 112% over-round.
As usual before the running of The Derby, it is being described as a poor renewal. If something wins by ten lengths on the bridle then some might be eating their words. John Gosden once recalled, “As Noel Murless used to say, when you think you’ve got several Derby horses, you haven’t got one.” That old adage seems to have been rendered somewhat redundant in the modern era by the supply of horses to Ballydoyle by Coolmore. If you have half the field in many years then statistically it is more likely that one of them is the Derby horse. With just three of the nineteen does Ballydoyle have the winner? Much seems to have been made of the draw and how unfavourable it is to some of the more fancied contenders. The ‘advantage’ of the single figure draws is surely only an advantage if the horse concerned wants to get a front-rank position. There are three also-rans in the field that clearly are not up to the required standard. Rogue Impact was last in the Lingfield Derby Trial and was never out of the last two the whole race. Al Wasl Storm was beaten on the Lingfield kitty litter by Rogue Impact before collecting a maiden race at Chester where he made all the running. Nightime Dancer finished ahead of Rogue Impact in the Lingfield Derby Trial, nearly four lengths third to two Ballydoyle runners, neither of whom are here today. Green Storm was second in the Zetland and the Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a juvenile and returned with a fourth in the Feilden Stakes at HQ but he re-opposes two horses that have beaten him: Tennessee Stud won at St Cloud and Nightwalker was third in the Feilden. The extra distance will help both Green Storm and Nightwalker but the latter was subsequently well beaten in the Dante suggesting that the Feilden form is not good enough; while Tennessee Stud returned with a third in the Leopardstown Derby Trial. Tuscan Hills won a Listed race as a juvenile but was only seventh in the Dante, with race fit Sea Scout behind him in eighth. The Crisford runner had previously won the Blue Riband Trial so may be capable of reversing York running with Raphael Freire’s charge. Tornado Alert was unfancied when he finished fourth in the Guineas; a race won by the owner’s more fancied Ruling Court. Whether Tornado Alert will last out this trip is open to question. I think that Ruling Court is very lucky to be a Classic winner as he clearly benefited from an ill-judged ride by the jockey on the favourite that day. I simply do not think that Ruling Court will stay. Buick will ride him like he will stay but on the rain-eased ground I can see his tank emptying in the final ascent to the line. Two French runners were supplemented to the race. New Bay colt New Ground was third in a Chantilly Listed race when last seen but the first two home did nothing for that form in the Prix Du Jockey Club so he simply does not look good enough. It is hard to escape the conclusion that Midak is at Epsom because the race is being run in honour of his late owner and there was no colt with the owner’s Irish trainers good enough to take part. Midak is unbeaten in three starts, the most recent being the Group 3 Prix Greffulhe that is usually a stepping stone to the Prix Du Jockey Club. Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge will doubtless have his supporters but there appear to be others with better form prospects. Lambourn won the Chester Vase with a bit to spare from Lazy Griff and I cannot see a reason why those places will be reversed although the winner did have race fitness. The problem for Lambourn supporters is that prior to Chester he had chased home stablemate Delacroix in the Ballysax Stakes; and that one subsequently won the Leopardstown Derby Trial with Tennessee Stud a remote third. So from that perspective it looks like Ryan Moore has probably selected the most likely Ballydoyle winner of The Derby, which is why it will go off favourite. From a form perspective, the key evidence for Stanhope Gardens is his neck second to Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes, with Nightwalker third. He warmed up for today with an effortless victory in a Salisbury conditions race but he retains the services of Hector Crouch. That is because Rossa Ryan is on the other Ralph Beckett contender, Dante winner PRIDE OF ARRAS. At York the Beckett colt beat five of today’s rivals. The favourite that day was the Ballydoyle talking horse The Lion In Winter. Much has been made of O’Brien’s two most recent Derby winners that flopped on debut before winning at Epsom but it is notable that Moore rejects this one and I do the same. Fifth home grey Nightwalker looked like a difficult ride at York and faces four rivals that have previously beaten him today. That leaves runner-up Damysus as the best chance of victory for the Gosdens. The Frankel colt was not beaten far in the Sandown Classic Trial and should benefit from the extra two furlongs; however, I feel that were PRIDE OF ARRAS from a yard that had previously won this race he would be favourite, albeit that he won the Dante on just his second start and lacks experience of the type of circus that is Epsom Downs on Derby Day. The son of New Bay should handle the easy ground and can provide that son of Dubawi with his biggest success as a stallion.
Im on Lambourn to small stakes at 100/1 ...!! and in case it romps home have just backed it for the Leger at 10/1..
Fine review, QMII, thank you. I continue to think that Midak may well surprise here. His jockey was critized for being outgunned by Ryan Moore in the 1000Gns, but that is no disgrace as many jockeys have been 'done' likewise by Moore in the past. Young Mikael is still a brilliant rider and I really hope he gets a top-class effort from Midak. Good luck today!
I just like putting up colourful images. This shows Get It as a strong bet in the finale. He has strong form (column 1), good speed ratings, not bad on ground that is softer than good, has the better of the draw, pace angle and has course and distance form(penultimate column). His negative is the true soft ground form, which makes him interesting alongside the two stand outs on that Eye Of Dubai and Solar Aclaim. The obvious bet for me is - even stakes Get It @ 13/2 Eye Of Dubai @ 4/1
Maybe, just maybe billy the kid can win his first derby today. So for very small money I’m on Green Storm @ 150/1 3 places with ladbrokes
Young Harry Davies gave me a 40/1 winner 2 runs back so I can’t let Sea Scout go unbacked. So I’ve backed it for small money @150/1 4 places with BoyleSports
With Ruling Court out I have had a fun bet on Tornado Alert at 40/1 4th in the 2000 Guineas his rating is not far from the best of the field. The trip is a question mark but the trainer believes the further he goes the better. Elwateen didn't get involved in the Oaks yesterday which dampen confidence somewhat but so many of the field are too short. No doubt Aidan will be victorious and giving his usual speil in the aftermath. Good luck to everyone.
