Doesn't seem to be much value left in the betting at all Grendel. A quid each way on Al Wasl Storm for me
Slight weakness in The Lion In Winter now. Delacroix no bigger than 4/1 on the back of that. Desert Flower will go into the Oaks with plenty in hand on ratings. William Buick said that after the 1000 Guineas it took him to the cricket pitch before he could pull her up. Going into the Guineas one of the questions was whether Desert Flower may be vulnerable to a faster filly. I am confident her class will see her through and if fully effective at 12F I don't see why they would not go for the Arc and Ruling Court the Leger
2000 Guineas form well and truly franked with Field Of Gold pissing all over his field in the Irish version. I've had a decent single on Ruling Court at 9/2.
If there is one town in Northern France that I like, then it’s Arras. About an hour from Calais, it’s a useful stop off whether you are driving towards Paris, Lyon/South or the Alsace or coming back from those areas. At first sight it looks a boring Northern French town but walk a while and you come across the Place des Heros and next to it the Grand Place: both huge squares. From April to October thousands of locals and tourists mass to drink (mainly) beer there. Arras is a good base for visiting the battle sites of WW1 and itself is the site of a famous Allied push in 1917, best illustrated by a visit to the Wellington Tunnels in Arras. Given that I liked Arras so much it was surprising I didn’t have any interest in Pride of Arras for the Dante. Another reason could have been that Pride of Arras was raised at a famous stud near to where I live, the Copgrove Stud. Hear about it today and people say it’s the former stud (and home) of Guy Reed, but more important it was also formerly owned by Major L B Holliday. He lived there and it’s believed that many of his mares were kept there along with the young foals before they were shipped later in the year to his Cleaboy Stud in Ireland. Today it is up and running as a boarding stud with mares and their offspring boarded there. It’s run by a gentlemen called Bryan O’Rourke who used to run the National Stud in Newmarket. He’s been there only a few years but amazingly has raised two consecutive Dante winners. Of course, Economics went on to look as if he was the best or second best 3yo of 2024. Unfortunately, he also appears to be a bleeder. Pride of Arras was also raised at Copgrove and similarly is by a son of Dubawi, in this case New Bay. Why Copgrove? Well Yorkshire and specifically North Yorkshire has long been the nursery of famous racehorses, and the theory is that it’s down to the limestone that imparts good bone development to young horses. Pride of Arras’s owners are the Ackroyds. They’ve been small owner breeders for years. If you’d have asked me their best horse a year ago I’d have said Halsbury. He was an Exbury colt who was trained (as were most of their horses, until he retired) by Peter Walwyn at Seven Barrows. He was a fairly useful stayer, who won the 1981 Cesarawitch. Walwyn later moved to a smaller yard in Lambourn, where Beckett became his assistant. In 2000 Beckett took over and moved to Kimpton Down in 2011. Throughout this time the Ackroyds have moved with him having the occasional horse with other trainers (you might have noticed their Old Cock trained by Ed Bethel won on Dante day too). Though small breeders they have always tried to use the best stallions they could afford. For example, Pride of Arras has an older half-sister by Wootton Bassett and a 2yo full-sister. Just to illustrate the precarious world of breeding, their 2024 colt foal by Pinatubo died and Parnell’s Dream appears to have been rested after that (I hope she’s alright). Though they haven’t got mares that they’ve owned many generations, they have bought wisely and have had 3 generations of Pride of Arras’s family. They bought a cast off from Coolmore called Kitty O’Shea, who was by their great stallion Sadler’s Wells out of a mare called Eva Luna, who’d won the Galtres and Park Hill Stakes for Juddmonte. For Coolmore she’d produced the St Leger winner Brian Boru (Kitty O’Shea’s full-brother). So although Parnell’s Dream was by the sprinter Oasis Dream, there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and anyway she won two small races for Beckett over 12f. He's by the Prix de Jockey Club winner New Bay, who it’s easy to think was a 10f specialist but was in fact a winner over 12f as well as finishing 2nd in the Franch Guineas. To win a Derby, you have to have speed and I think that’s where Oasis Dream comes in. Though a tough 12f race, plenty of Derby winners have looked to mostly have 10f pedigrees. I think Pride of Arras will have the speed to win a Derby. I think the questions are will he have the class and experience to win at Epsom? As regards the latter his Dante win showed a degree of courage. Ryan was looking for a gap for some time but when he got one, he went through it like an old hand. Apparently when Cecil was in his prime a feature of his training was the exercise of getting a horse to go through a gap. In a race like the Derby it can often be the difference between victory and defeat. To show that necessary element on only his second start, to me, says something about him. Beckett was pretty clear that his colt was only 80-85% fit on Dante day and with the necessary improvement has the experience to win a Group 1. As regards Class, then I’d first look at Beckett’s team of 3yos. Before the Dante, Delacroix was favourite for Derby. Last Autumn he narrowly beat a colt of Beckett’s, Stanhope Gardens, over 8f at Newmarket. Beckett still has this colt in the Derby yet stable jockey Ryan showed enormous enthusiasm for Pride of Arras and I’d be surprised if he’s not 7lb better than his stablemate. Will that be enough? In most years it might not but as has been said this doesn’t look the greatest Derby field in fact it looks below average. It doesn’t mean there’s not an above average Derby winner in the field. And if The Lion in Winter can leap to favouritism because of a 4 length beating it can only be based on the theory that he will improve 4-5lb more than Pride of Arras will improve. I think Pride of Arras will have the Class to win this Derby. Of course, an uncertainty is that in the first place Pride of Arras handles the Epsom gradients: hundreds don’t. One thing I am certain about is that he will handle good to firm ground, which could easily come up on Derby Day: will The Lion in Winter or Ruling Court? I’m not so sure. Another uncertainty is that Ruling Court will be head and shoulders above all of these. I can’t take that from his win in the Guineas. One interesting breeding aside is that TLIW and Ruling Court are cousins once removed. Ruling Court’s 4th dam is The Lion in Winter’s 3rd dam. She was a feisty filly called Inchmurrin who was owned by Oppenheimer and trained by Geoff Wragg. She bred a useful colt in Inchinor, though not as good as her.
Im pretty strong against the top 3 at 12f, but it looks a shocking Derby and a good 10f horse might be able to win it, this is the reality in the post Galileo era, the case for dropping it back to 10f will become stronger in the coming years I suspect on pedigree, you would say The Lion In Winter is a certainty but his striding looks more like a miler than a 12f horse and he didnt settle well at all in the Dante, at least you got a decent price about Auguste Rodin and City of Troy after their poor comeback runs, id be looking at the St James Palace rather than the Derby for him I fancied Delacroix for the Guineas antepost, thought he was a Obriens best chance at the race but they decided to try and make him a Derby horse, for me hes a 8-10f horse and I cant see him staying well enough Pride Of Arras looks likely to stay 12f, but I dont like New Bay in the Epsom classics and the Dante wasnt a strong race, there was a couple of lengths between about 10 horses and hes 3-4L off the Guineas standard set by Ruling Court Damysus is interesting, hes been a bit of an eyecatcher running well when being given plenty to do at Sandown and York, finishing with the best sectionals on both occasions, hes by Frankel out of a mare who won a G3 and G2 at 12f, and hes double the price of Pride Of Arras with only a length or so to find Tennessee Stud is one I had on my radar since last season, but I thought he was a more of a Leger type who could place in the Derby maybe, he ran a nice enough comeback race behind Delacroix in the Derrinstown, if they decide to have a crack at it 50/1 would be a nice e/w bet Damysus 11/1 and Teennessee Stud 50/1 e/w are my plays
Listening to O'brien it sounds like The Lion In Winter, Delacroix and Lambourn will be his three darts and he feels Ryan may pick Delacroix. The Lion In Winter comes from York to Epsom, will he handle the track, will he settle, will he make the necessary improvement, will he stay and is he good enough? That's a lot of questions at 11!4 and looking this morning I see Paddy Power are now 4/1 about The Lion In Winter and Delacroix no bigger than 3/1 as the new favourite.
Anyone expecting / hoping (delete as appropriate) anything to be supplemented into the race at the beginning of next week??? Incidentally, since 1988 supplementary entries are 2/28 in the Derby (the supplemented winners were Kris Kin 2003, Golden Horn, 2015).
Not expecting anything to be supplemented. Plenty of them need taking out of the race though. Wimbledon Hawkeye is said to be more likely to go to Royal Ascot. This is based on giving him a race he might actually win, rather than just giving a good account in the Derby. Considering he is one of the higher rated ones in the race that says little for some of the others. Just looked on Paddy Power's website and they are going 10/1 The Lion In Winter, with 7/4 Delacroix. That price would indicate strongly to me that the former will not run, rather than just be abandoned by Moore. PP have Prince Of Arras and Ruling Court 4/1 Jt 2nd Favs. I also read an article written going into the Dante, where O'brien said that The Lion In Winter does not work like a mile and a half horse but instead "works like a miler" In the Oaks Giselle seems the one for money at 9/2 2nd Fav behind Desert Flower at 6/4
im coming round to Pride Of Arras now, think Damysus might be a 10f horse, PoA beat him quite comfortably and should improve for the run in any case, not really convinced that form should be reversed at 12f after more thought, was maybe just being greedy looking for the double figure price The Lion In Winter is 25/1 for the St James Palace, betting suggesting he isnt running here so you never know, they do have Henri Matisse for it, but Field Of Gold looks strong and they might need to throw the kitchen sink at him Elwateen 10/1 will do for me in the Oaks, shes the same Dubawi x Teofilo cross as Ezeliya last year, out of a good 10f G1 winning dam, shes always been highly regarded, Fillies mile entry before her debut and was sent off 4/6 for it, thrown into the Guineas and ran very nicely in 4th, thats a higher level of form than any of the fillies trials, and youd imagine theres more improvement to come on her 3rd start ballydoyle dont seem to know whos best of their trio which suggests theres no real standout, and the fact that they are paying 30k to supplement Elwateen looks strong considering the vibe around most of the others is they want paying to turn up
Just been looking at the weather forecast.... Going stick currently 6.2 indication just good ground... rain Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and thunderstorms (up to 70% likelihood) on Saturday.... Cant help thinking you will have to properly stay.
Inclined to agree with you in fielding against the front 3. Value to be had elsewhere. I've had one bet, but just now backed Tennessee Stud at 95 on Betfair, sure to handle the ground if it does have some dig and Puppet Master at a massive 250 on Betfair (though far from being a certain runner)..
When I said that the top 3 were The Lion In Winter, Ruling Court and Delacroix, all of whom I had doubts about staying, I dont believe any of them truly want 12f to be at their best. Pride Of Arras is now in the top 3 and I dont have any doubts about him staying, if it does become a bit more testing thats probably in his favour. I dont think Tennessee Stud has the class to win, but think he could maybe top 5 and go for the Leger, but you never know, if you get a Wings Of Eagles pace meltdown scenario. Ruling Court obviously has the class, he sets the standard, if he stays 12f he would probably be the best horse weve seen in a long time, to have the speed to quicken with a top class sprinter (Shadow Of Light) in the Guineas and the stamina to see off a stayer with class like Pride Of Arras. When you think of the good Guineas horses to win the Derby in recent times, Sea The Stars, Camelot, New Approach, Australia, and Masar, they were all generally crying out for a trip visually and on pedigree, whereas Ruling Court would have no problem going the St James Palace and Sussex route, so he would really be breaking the mould if he could win a Derby while having elite mile speed. Delacroix has never really been held in the same regard as typical Obrien winners, City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin, Camelot, and to a lesser extent Anthony Van Dyck, who were always well touted as being number 1 from early on. Delacroix has kind of fell into the number 1 spot because things have gone wrong with The Lion In Winter and Twain and to me, he was a Magna Grecia type, which is why I liked him for the Guineas. The form of his trials are strong in the context of the race but hes been winning them on speed, having a kick off a slow pace at 10f round Leopardstown, its a different ball game 12f at Epsom, and the record of Obriens Derrinstown route horses hasnt been great despite them always being well fancied on the day, Stone Age, Bolshoi Ballet etc.
I agree Elwateen is better value than some of these. Minnie Hauk for instance won an awful race last time and it's easy to see why she has drifted to 8/1 from 5/1. Some have crabbed the value of the 1000 Guineas strength but it seemed obvious to me that it was an insufficient trip for Desert Flower on the ground. Desert Flower stepped up to a mile on her third start and ran at that trip the next twice. Normally you be thinking a filly like that would need more than a mile aged three. Not sure what Beckett's Revoir is doing at 10/1 having split a pair rated 93 and 95 at Newbury last time. She's lightly raced but needs a lot more now. Not quite sure if I would read too much into Godolphin paying 30k to supplement, I doubt these people would bother bending down to pick that amount off the floor if dropped. I am concerned about soft ground for both of mine. We could end up seeing one of the worst Oaks ever with a 100 rated filly winning it.
Yh, Revoir looks sexy at a glance, same profile as Look Here who won in 2008, and from a good family but im not sure the substance is there, Look Here had thrashed an odds on Doctor Freemantle on debut and she was 33/1 for the Oaks after running an eye catching 2nd in a low rated trial. Theres plenty of stamina in the extended family of Regardez (e.g Scope) but she herself didnt seem to stay 12f in the Oaks and her offspring have been best at 8-10f so far, and with Revoir being by Study Of Man, im not expecting such a massive jump from her as Look Here produced when getting a stamina test as she was by Hernando out of a Rainbow Quest mare. I suspect Revoir is just a bit slow and thats why she was staying on dourly in the trial.
I see the Aga Khan is supplementing Midak. Unbeaten in three starts he got a rating of 107 for winning last time in a group three five runner affair. Nothing has run from that race since but the runner up in his previous race, Avide, stank the place out the next time he ran. I know because I fancied him and he looked to have all the pace of a glacier finishing 6th of 7 runners at Chantilly. Unbelievably Midak is as low as 10/1 for the Epsom Derby. Apparently the owner was told by Graffard that he wouldn't run Midak in the French Derby as they had Ridari for that race. That doesn't inspire me. Surely he'll be a drifter on the day but we will get the usual ITV speil about "oh he's been supplemented at the cost of a zillion euros and they won't be wasting their money"
It could be that is the case. French horses have a terrible record in the Epsom Derby though. Any rain might help, it seems an awful lot of the French Racing is on soft ground. The betting continues to be confused. Latest is Delacroix 11/4 Ruling Court 9/2 Pride Of Arras 5/1 The Lion In Winter 7/1. Almost everything is drifting with only the big priced ones being nibbled at.
