Backing horses at Chester is a mug’s game. It’s like racing in a saucer. The only worthwhile bet used to be to back Lester Piggott drawn 1 on a sprint hot pot. Otherwise have a cup of tea instead in the saucer. I remember King George and dual Classic winner, Ragusa, being beaten at Chester by a nag called My Myosotis- prior to that late foal developing into one of the best three year olds of the century. That says it all.
How about an Abdullah double in the Irish Guineas this weekend - Swelter in the 1000 and Field Of Gold in the 2000? Colin Keane come on down
I am looking ahead to Royal Ascot, not so far away now (17th June) In the Commonwealth Cup it is impossible to oppose Shadow Of Light. Yes he's only 4/1 but he only succumbed late on in the 2000 Guineas after hitting the front 2F from home and that is by far the strongest form. With Field Of Gold dotting up in the Irish 2000 Guineas I am sure Godolphin won't want to take him on again and the drop to 6F looks a given for a horse first said to have stayed a mile but looking at it his class saw him through and he definitely weakened after being delivered at least a forlong too early by Barzelona. Commonwealth Cup Shadow Of Light 4/1
Treanmor made a spectacular debut for Charlie Appleby recently. The son of Frankel cost two million and the world and his wife knew he had been working well. The original plan had been to go for the Chesham over 7F at Royal Ascot but the trainer seemed to be musing the Coventry, stating that "He didn't look slow over 6F" Aidan O'brien has Albert Einstein in the Coventry and he is a short favourite now. The Ballydoyle maestro has been stating how fast he is and how he's been working like no horse they have ever had. Rather than taking him on I would have thought Godolphin would look after their fellow and stick to the original plan of the Chesham. Playing the long game is the sensible option. Only 2/1 for the Chesham but I feel he won't be bigger than Evens if he turns up. Chesham Stakes Treanmor 2/1 With that in mind I feel that the only time you are likely to get a play for next year's Guineas on Treanmor is to play before Royal Ascot. He is 16/1 and will shorten after any win at the Royal meeting. In comparison Albert Einstein is described as a speed horse by his trainer. That makes his odds of 10/1 for the Guineas and 12/1 for the Derby look skinny. 2026 2000 Guineas Treanmor 16/1 He's described as a colt they have been unable to get off the bridle at home and he looks an exceptional prospect to me. https://x.com/RacingTV/status/1924115372950597889
Yes, I'll wait until he's definitely going fot the Commonwealth and then back him for the July Cup. He burst he showed to hit the front in the Guineas was impressive and the older sprinters look beatable.
The strange thing about the Coventry Stakes is that one would expect it to be a good guide and stepping stone to the following season’s 2000 Guineas. I remember Geoffrey Brooke’s Showdown winning the Coventry in spectacular fashion in the early sixties - and being touted as a certainty for the 2000 Guineas. The reality was somewhat different and Showdown, like almost all Coventry winners, did not go on to win the Guineas. In fact, it is a terrible guide to producing a Guineas winner, and Henrythenavigator is the only one I can recall in the last sixty years. Please enlighten me if you know another. Maybe it is simply that the early or precocious types win the Coventry and the better horses are more likely to be given more time to mature- and head to the Middle Park or Dewhurst.
I always find it surprising that Noel Murless gave Royal Palace his debut in the Coventry. He finished 5th. His next 4 races were the Acomb (then 6f), the Royal Lodge, the 2000G and Derby: he won all 4. Racing seems to have become compartmentalized. Thou shalt not run a Classic horse until at the earliest July. Of course Mill Reef, as good a Derby winner as I have seen, ran and won over 5f in May and then won the Coventry Stakes. Horses haven't changed, certainly not for the better, but fashion has.
In the Norfolk Stakes Charles Darwin is a warm favourite. At the prices I prefer Wesley Ward's Outfielder. This colt looked all speed when easily landing a race at Churchill Downs on debut. Said to be the Apple of his trainers eye, the Coventry was mooted for him but the trainer felt he would have needed two runs before stepping up to 6F. Ward has a pretty good record in the Norfolk and perhaps a more precocious type than the Fav who will likely be brought along with 3YO career in mind. The trainer is renowned for speed horses and he said that this colt is big, opining that people who see him will think they are viewing a 3YO. He has stated that he thinks his horse will take some stopping and reading the vibes I can't remember Ward being so bullish since Lady Aurelia, who slaughtered her field in the Queen Mary back in the day. Norfolk Stakes Outfielder 4/1
Saturday 21st June Wokingham Garfield Shadow 25/1 e/w WH, Lads, Coral, PP, betfair and sky four places.
The horse it beat at Newmarket (Vlad) got easily turned over tonight at Wetherby by first time out Rogue Supremacy (not an amazing time, but it won very cosily)...
Albert Einstein misses Royal Ascot due to a small injury. Hope that doesn't tempt Godolphin into going for the Coventry. I think that is the wrong path for horses you want to be a Guineas contender.
Not worried by that. The winner was odds on favourite in what was basically a match race. It was only 5 and a half furlings on fast ground and you need a real speedster for that. Not sure why they dropped Vlad in trip, he looked like 6 was a minimum for him. In any case Treanmor beat him nearly twice as far in what looked no more than a piece of work at home.
