Good Morning. It's Friday 23rd May, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road How safe is Farke's tenure this Summer? Reports from Spanish outlet AS have ignited speculation that Leeds are considering a bold move to replace Daniel Farke with Real Madrid icon Raul. The legendary Spanish striker, who boasts an impressive 323 goals in 741 appearances for Real Madrid and 102 caps for Spain, retired from playing in 2015. Since hanging up his boots, Raul has transitioned into management, taking the reins at Real Madrid's reserve team, Real Madrid Castilla, in 2019. According to AS, Raul is eager to embark on a new challenge after reportedly being overlooked for the top job at Real Madrid, with Xabi Alonso rumoured to be taking the Bernabéu hot seat. This pursuit of a fresh start could pave the way for a potential move to Elland Road. The rumours surrounding Farke's future at Elland Road have been further fueled by reports from Denmark and Germany suggesting that Leeds officials held discreet discussions with Mainz manager Bo Henriksen. These talks apparently prompted him to publicly reaffirm his commitment to the Bundesliga outfit. Despite Paraag Marathe's supportive 'he's my man' speech three weeks ago, Daniel Farke's tenure at Leeds still looks uncertain. Are the 49ers actively searching for a new leader this summer, or are these simply speculative links - Only time will tell! please log in to view this image Whites face a battle to land Motherwell starlet Lennon Miller, described as many as being one of the best teenage midfielder in British football is well and truly on Leeds radar this summer, according to recent reports in the media. The Whites are among a host of top clubs who have registered their interest in the Scottish teenager. They face a battle to secure his signature, with as many as ten Premier League teams are reportedly vying for Miller's attention. Furthermore, Strasbourg, Chelsea's sister club, appear to be making significant headway in the race, alongside Italian clubs Atalanta, Bologna, and Como. Miller has enjoyed a breakthrough season at Fir Park, showcasing his immense potential. Football analyst Ben Mattinson has described him as a player with "huge potential," a sentiment echoed by his recent call-up to the Scotland squad for upcoming friendlies. The 18-year-old has been a key figure for the Steelmen, making 39 appearances across all competitions, contributing four goals and eight assists. His impressive tally of 3398 minutes played demonstrates the trust placed in him despite his young age. One of his most valuable attributes is his versatility. He is capable of playing in any midfield position, having featured equally as a number six, eight, and ten this season. This adaptability would undoubtedly be an asset to Leeds. Securing Miller's signature would be a significant coup for Leeds. His undeniable talent and leadership qualities, demonstrated by captaining Motherwell on ten occasions, suggest he could be a real gem for the Yorkshire club. While the competition is fierce, landing Miller could provide Leeds with a dynamic and promising player to aid their Premier League survival bid. please log in to view this image
Morning all Farke as safe as until better comes along unless there is discontent that our DOF wants to bring in players not approved by Farke
Given the colossal investment expected in playing staff you’d imagine we’ll have to be outside bottom 6 at least for his job to be safe. I doubt the 49ers are planning a relegation battle even though that’s likely going to be the scenario. Problem again will be if we’re in bottom three what class of unemployed muppet would we attract
All going to depend on the transfers in, if we buy some quality and Farke underperforms then we can replace him with someone more capable. If we buy past it journeymen and cast offs, expect a circus
This is prompted by both Ristac's and Eire's comments above. It's just a very simple and small set of data. Since the commencement of the 2017/18 season inclusive of the current season, 54 managers have been appointed mid season to teams within the EPL. 26 appointments have been made mid seasons to clubs who were in the bottom 3, of which 17 have either been relegated with their newly appointed manager, or sacked their 2nd manager whilst still in the relegation positions. 5 teams have managed to secure a top 14 finish after appointing a manager whilst they were in a bottom 3 positions, these being West Ham (Moyes) Crystal Palace (Hodgson), both in 2016/18 season, Newcastle (Howe) in 2021/22 and Wolves have done it twice in 2022/23 under Lopetegui and presently this season (with 1 game still to play) under Pereira. A total of 37 managers have been appointed mid season to teams in the bottom 6, with a total of 19 (including the 17 mentioned above) having either been relegated or dismissed whilst their teams were in a relegation position. Van Nistelroy (Leicester) 2024/25 and Ranieri (Watford) in 2021/2022 are the two who took their teams from safety to relegation. The below is just a simplified analysis, as it doesn't take into account when an appointment is made etc, it is just purely based upon league positions at the time when a new manager is appointed and when either the season ends or he is replaced by a 4rd manager.
So if you are not 100% about your manager, then a new one needs a preseason to put their mark on the playing style, tactics and squad? Alternative if things don't work in the first 3rd or 1st part of the season, a new manager wont help, its too late.
Making the decision to appoint a new manager prior to the commencement of the January transfer window, is more beneficial than appointing during or after. Basically it's a 50/50 chance as to whether a team in the relegation places stays up after appointing a new manager prior to the winter transfer window. Using the same data set of 54 mid season managerial appointments as I did previously, 10 clubs that were in the relegation positions either during or following completion of the January transfer window, appointed new managers. Only 2 of those appointments saved their club from relegation, Marsch in the 2021/22 season with ourselves and Dyche in the 2022/23 season with Everton, with both clubs finishing in 17th position. Am looking at pre season appointments, to see if there is any advantage as LeeUtd mentioned, but that's a bit more work and may be more difficult to show any trends Pre January Transfer Window Mid Season Appointments Post December Mid Season Appointments
Just a continuance of the managerial discussion Since 2010/2011 season, 52 managers have been appointed prior to the commencement of a new season, this includes newly promoted Hull who appointed Mike Phelan to replace Steve Bruce in 2016/2017 season. Phelan was replaced halfway through the January transfer window by Marco Silva, who whilst unable to save them from relegation took them from 20th to 18th in the league. Of the 45 newly promoted clubs during that same period, Hull as mentioned above appointed a new manager prior to the start of the season. 27 of those clubs finished the season with the same manager they started with. 10 clubs changed their manager prior to the January transfer window opening (9 of these clubs were 15th or lower in the league at the time of the change). 7 clubs changed their manager during or after the January transfer window and all those 7 clubs were 15th or below in the league at the time of the managerial change. Of the 27 clubs that stuck with their manager throughout the season, 10 were relegated, 10 finished 14th or higher and 9 skirted with relegation, finishing up in the 15th-17th positions. Of the 10 clubs that changed their manager prior to the winter transfer window opening, 7 were relegated, 2 managed a top 14th finish, with the remaining team finishing 15th. Of the 7 clubs that made changes to their manager during or after the January transfer window, 4 of those were relegated, 2 finished in the top 14 and the final club finished 17th. So in the past 15 seasons there is a 50% chance of a newly promoted side being relegated in their first season back in the EPL. 70% of those clubs that make a managerial change prior to the opening of the January transfer window are relegated. ( I expected this figure to be a lot lower, given that the club has the chance to bring in new players to suit their new manager). Just under 60% of clubs who make a managerial change during or after the closure of the January transfer window end up being relegated. 65% of newly promoted clubs who stick with the manager that got them promoted throughout the season, manage to survive their first season back in the EPL. Whether that is through momentum, club backing the manager financially, or just having an overall well run club, then it's difficult to say
All those January signings for the Blades and they went from top of the table to play off final LOSERS
A 3rd double in a row over Sheff Utd might have been asking too much. Should be okay with Sunderland if they spend the extra money on fixing their pitch
Heartbreak for the blunts but Pleased for Sunderland. Tried to play good football all season, proper club, good fan base… had loads of banter with their fans down the years. I’m just about over 1973
