Hi all, I just want to use this thread to test out something. I've now got access to sectional times in a reportable and query ready format. This allows me to test some of my theories about race pace in a more systematic approach. This thread is looking at the systems, every week I will try and post some rationale behind a system and also the day to day bets that it throws up The goal of this thread is to return a profit of 500pts. The bank for the thread is 1000pts and each bet will be likely be 2pts win at Betfair SP. So lets see how we get on.
System 1 - Turf Sectional Upgrade 13:20 Nottingham Legacy Power Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 15:20 Haydock American Bay Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 19:00 Leicester Delicacy Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 20:30 Leicester The Ormer Gatherer Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO This system has had a small 8% strike rate over the test period, but has a healthy P/L at Betfair SP, Early Price and Breakfast Price. The key to this system is that it has had an average odds of 42.73 BSP, and an average winning odds of 17.68. The system looks at horses whose last run had a sectional upgrade of more than 2 lengths, meaning that if they had run the optimum line, or the optimum race conditions had been run, they would have finished two lengths closer to the leader. The premise of this system is to find horses that were beaten last time out, but hadn't had the race run to suit them. The hope being they are not well found in the market. I have this down as a risky system, but the potential for big positive results are shown in the test data.
Sectionals - Lead and easy Lead? 13:55 Nottingham One For Harvey Sectionals - Will they lead and get easy lead? 16:45 Lingfield Twilight Madness Sectionals - Will they lead and get easy lead? I will write that system up tomorrow or later next week. Total staked 12pts
Very interesting. Can you apply the same theory to the other runners in the race in which the horse got the sectional upgrade (eg to check that it would have been 2l closer if the same argument applied to the winner; and to see where the other runners would have finished with the same argument applied to them). That would be fascinating as you could effectively run the entire race again It might also be useful for finding over priced favourites/near favourites (ie a winner last time out but has a sectional upgrade that would have made it an easier winner than it looked) Will you be applying this "blind" or will you also take account of other things such as jockey change, change of ground conditions which may be more or less suitable, whether the horse is progressive or fully exposed, different distance *etc etc? Combining the sectional upgrades with upgrades/downgrades for other factors such as those mentioned could maybe throw up a few worth an extra stake Looking forward to the theory of the other system EDIT. * PS horse ran green, looked as if in need of race
On the first one, yes, it shows the finishing positions after upgrades too, so you can see horses who were potentially unlucky, or got the run of the race. I tend to follow them blind, but I've also got others that indicate something to look at, so it depends on what the situation is. The change of ground for instance is something I have spent a lot of time looking at for indicators for which trainers do best when the ground changes. It will be interesting to see that with the sectionals added.
Yeah, was a very nice ride by the lad. Betfair SP of 8.2 makes it profit for the day. Two to run this evening, hopefully one of them can trouble the judge. Probably not the 50/1 shot!
Delicacy won with a surprising BSP of 5.66 returning a nice profit for the day. It’d be nice if it all went this smoothly!
Results Day 1 - 12 pt staked 2 winners - One For Harvey @ 8.2 returning 15.92 Delicacy @ 5.66 returning 11.13 Returns 27.05 Bank +15.05 Day 2 Selections 14:50 Newcastle Not Me All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 16:35 Newcastle Sam Hawkens Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win 16:35 Newcastle Arrange All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 17:45 Newcastle Atlantic Gamble All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 18:15 Newcastle Party Bear All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG The sectional upgrade is the same as with turf runners, so no need to go into that. Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win, is what it says on the tin. The idea here is that horses who finish with the longest stride in the final furlong are showing that they aren't tiring as much as others in the race and are maintaining their effort.
So 10pt staked for the day. You'd be looking at Sam Hawkens and Party Bear as the likeliest two, but lets see!
Yeah, it is all password and site protected. Interestingly the source data is TPD, which feeds the very good sectional section of At The Races website. Another winner today, with Sam Hawkens winning for the stride system at 7.5 Betfair SP.
Without getting too fanciful, surely it must be possible to programme AI to sift through the data, pick out the horses to bet on (based on a staking plan that the AI can learn) and place the bets? Could be something of enormous value.
So Day 2 had one winner at 7.5 Betfair SP, This returned a profit of 4.99 points for the day. Daily Profit/Loss Summary: Date Total Profit/Loss (£) 2025-05-10 15.05 2025-05-11 4.99 TOTAL 20.04 15:47 Catterick Canaria Queen Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 19:35 Windsor Trojan Truth Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 19:55 Wolverhampton Eden Storm All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 20:10 Windsor Jet Packer Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 20:30 Wolverhampton Willow's Kiss All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 20:30 Wolverhampton Juan Cool Dude All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG 12 points staked today.
Sorry!! Teething issues, the systems broke for some reason!! Three that were missed 16:17 Catterick Star Delta Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win 19:55 Wolverhampton Desert Raider Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win 21:00 Wolverhampton Hinitsa Bay Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win So that is 18 points staked today.
Not to be on day 3. As @TIGERSCAVE says, a bit unlucky too. One non runner Daily Profit/Loss Summary: Date Total Profit/Loss (£) 2025-05-10 15.05 2025-05-11 4.99 2025-05-12 -16.00 TOTAL 4.04 Todays selections 14:20 Chepstow Wedgewood Sectionals - Will they lead and get easy lead? 15:12 Beverley Ingleby Archie Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 15:20 Chepstow Royal Justice Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 15:42 Beverley Dandy's Angel Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 15:50 Chepstow Dynamite Katie Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 16:12 Beverley Arundel Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 16:20 Chepstow Monkey Miss Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 16:42 Beverley Analogical Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO 16:42 Beverley Belle Amie Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO - NON RUNNER 16:55 Chepstow Sun Tracker Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO So 18pt staked. I am off racing today at Worcester, so it would be nice if these did well in my absence!!
