Thursday's Meetings Warwick N/H 7 Races 1:35-4:47p.m. Beverley Flat 8 Races 1:45-5:25p.m. Perth N/H 8 Races 1:55-5:36p.m. Tipperary(E) Flat 7 Races 3:52-7:02p.m. Kilbeggan(E) N/H 7 Races 4:05-7:15p.m. Bangor-on-Dee(E) N/H 7 Races 5:10-8:10p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 6 Races 6:25-8:55p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
A bit of analysis on Beverley and the draw. 2:15 Beverley - 5 furlong sprint handicap Beverley has a well regarded draw bias, and it similarly has a well known pace bias. The theory goes that you want to be drawn low, and race prominently. So lets have a look at this from the last 5 seasons of sprints here. This graph shows the data of the "Average" finishing position for each draw category based on the running style of the horses. So for instance a front running "Led" horse drawn low finishes on average in 4.5 position, compared to 5.5 from a middle draw and almost 7th from a high draw. As you can see with this graph, you are more likely to finish in a better position and more so if you run prominently or even better - Lead. So what does that mean today? 2:15 - South Parade NAP @ 4/1 Zuffalo @ 22/1 EW
Winner of the first race, drawn 1. This is a better graph, it shows the different scenarios with box plot showing the standard deviations, means and whiskers. This shows leading from Low draw does have a lower average runners beaten, but a greater likelihood of the winner being from this cohort. Similarly leading from a middle draw gives a high mean and good chances of finishing well placed. Now this will go wrong for sure in the 2:15
19:40 Bangor-on-Dee - Mokoro Div.1 of Class-5 Handicap Hurdle over an extended 2m3f on good-to-soft ground. Ocovango gelding improving with every run, ao has a sqeak in this affair. C.J.Todd rides for the Skelton stable. 4/1 best price in nearly all places on ATR site, at time of writing.
