2025 Epsom Derby

How oftrn do you see Frankie Dettori on a 100/1 shot. Maximum Promise. One win in 5 runs. Seems very strange. Doesn't look that full of promise in what, at present, looks a very open race

Hopefully something will emerge as a likely winner

 

I think it is a very open year. AOB doesn't have a pack of Galileos to set loose on the race and his current placement, Wootton Bassett, doesn't really strike one as a Derby sire. Of course Godolphin may have the answer, but which one?

Over the next 16 days we'll see a lot of bubbles burst but hopefully someone coming through and looking very special. I'd love Gethin to be the one and he has his first trial on Friday

 

Glad I'm not the only one that passes over those sired by Wooten Bassett
When you look at Arc winners Alpinista and Ace Impact, I do wonder why Frankel didn't go for the Derby and Arc. For me that would have just stamped him as the best ever, had he won them. He is great, no doubt about it, and I am a big fan but there is just that niggling doubt - would he have won G1s over 12f. I reckon, given decent ground, he would have. Presumably too much of a risk with stallion duties in mind

 

You might recall that the 2011 Epsom Derby was won by Pour Moi, coming from way off the pace and Mickael Barzalona celebrating before he had got to the winning post, to the chagrin of trainer Andre Fabre. The favourite that day was The Queen’s horse Carlton House, which fell out of the stalls after nearly refusing to go in them. It was not a great field, so it is fair to speculate whether Frankel could have won; however, the Good to Firm ground would perhaps have not been beneficial.

Ballydoyle outsider Memphis Tennessee tried to make all, so where would Frankel have been positioned given the stamina doubts? On quick ground at Epsom, the place to be is near the front and being at the back at Tattenham Corner is usually race ending – remember Dancing Brave?

The two horses from that Derby that ran in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Epsom runner-up Treasure Beach and St Leger winner Masked Marvel) were in the last three home behind Danedream. Although the official going at Longchamp was ‘good’, Nathaniel (beaten half a length on debut by Frankel) was taken out of that race because of the fast ground and was well beaten in the Champion Stakes.

 

So far Gethin and Almeric have put a marker down. The former won his second race on good to firm after winning his first on heavy, so the going should be no issue. Against him is that he appears still pretty green and that he is a sizeable colt. The burst of speed from the furlong pole was impressive though.
Almeric ran a really tough race to win the Fielden Stakes. If it hasn't taken its toll then he could be a possible for Epsom or Chantilly. The French race may suit him better.
The next trial could be the Blue Riband at Epsom next week. Most of the declarations are big outsiders. Then the Sandown Classic trial is held Friday week. Usually a much more informative affair.

 

If you think of how Frankel was running then and especially how he ran in his alternative to the Derby (the James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot) I'd say Frankel's non-participation at Epsom was a blessing. He beat a listed level colt in the 2000G (in brilliant style) by a couple of lengths and just scrambled home at Royal Ascot from Excelebration. I believe he'd have done a Tudor Minstrel in the Derby. Cecil trained him brilliantly and as a 4yo when he could settle a lot better he might have won a Group 1 over 12f, but not in June 2011. I'd doubt he could have won the King George in July 2011.

 

Thought it was Zoffany he beat in the St James Palace? Personally thought his win in the Queen Anne the following year was his best performance

 

I remember that race with Zoffany. Another 10 yards or so and he would have lost; The only blot on his career

 

Yes, it was Zoffany. Knew there were Xs or Ys or Zs in there.

 

So did Timeform. His 147 rating hangs on that.

 

I have, not been following horse racing much mainly due to health reasons. I did a highly ambitious ante post last October though on Shadow Of Light 2000g 14/1, Desert Flower. 1000g 8/1 and Ruling Court Derby 16/1.

Just for a moment in the 2000 g I thought I might be onto something but it changed late on and my fellow was third. Whatever the plan was it can't surely have been for a questionable stayer to take up the running fully two furlongs from home.
Moving on I feel Ruling Court and Desert Flower are the ones to beat and at 19/1 the double I am happy to go in. The Oaks field looks weak. Giselle was mentioned by Ed Chamberlain as looking impressive but mentioned that "Perhaps she didn't beat much, we don't know"
Well she beat a filly with an official handicap of 84 coming in, so we sort of do know.
Lion Of Winter has been the next superstar touted all winter and he faces a weak looking field for the Dante. He may well be up to it but he has seemed too short for one with enough to prove and Epsom will not be like York in any way. I prefer a horse that Charlie Appleby was suspecting might need 10f at least and who was aided in landing the Guineas by one jockey going too soon and another who watched Buick shovelling the coal on in front of him and chose to wait to ask his mount for maximum effort.

Desert Flower on the other hand was seen coming in as perhaps vulnerable to a faster type in the Guineas. She has finished her Group 1 wins in strong style and got a mile in the autumn as a 2yo. Given a sensible ride I wouldn't want any other filly going for me in the closing stages and the trials so far look very average. I feel Desert Flower and Ruling Court should be about 13/2 as a double, given they are Guineas winners with more stamina in their profiles than many other years and their targets have been clear pretty much from the moment they crossed the Newmarket winning post. Good luck and good health to you all.

 

Are you OK now?

 

I suspect Grendel might have been a whole lot better if Shadow of Light had hung on...

But best wishes to him anyway...

 

Thanks for asking Ron. Sadly they of my fixed one of my eyes but I now need the same two operations on the other eye. I hope to get that done this year. I spent about a year virtually blind in one eye. Some would say I couldn't pick them anyway with 20/20 vision.

I had been waiting to play Cool Hoof Luke in the Commonwealth Cup at 20/1. He beat Shadow Of Light when landing the Gimcrack and lootcfked a pure sprinter to me. That looked strong form after the Dewhurst but I read that Cool Hoof Luke had a setback and won't be out until July.

Some still fancy Shadow Of Light for the Commonwealth but apparently the connections were satisfied he stays a mile and the St James Palace is his target. I can't see him fending off Field Of Gold if he is delivered with 2f to run again and a jockey on the latter who won't be sitting asleep on him this time.

Tigerscave is correct, it would have been good for the health to have a treble at 2295/1 still running. Only £2 staked mind you!

 

Something has to win the Derby. And that just about sums up what I think of this year's Derby

Ruling Court looks the stand out bet at 4/1. Although hasn't raced beyond a mile so far he is by the Triple Crown winner Justify (sire of City of Troy) out of a mare by High Chaparral (English and Irish Derby winner, two time winner of the Breeders Cup Classic and twice placed in the Arc)

The fact that he is entered in the English and Irish Derbies and the Arc would indicate that connections feel he will stay 12f

Some very good horses have won (or placed) in the 2,000 Gns

Just don't fancy anything else

He's 20/1 for the Arc. May not be that after the Derbies

 

Might go to the St Leger if he wins the Derby though. God knows what the ground might be like for the Arc and a triple crown would be a real historic feat given that it is 55 years since Nijinsky achieved the feat. Nijinsky would go on to defeat in Paris, perhaps a case of going to the well once too often.

The Triple Crown bonus of £2 million added to The St Leger prize money would bring the total to a similar level as an Arc victory.

The Leger is likely to be far less competitive race than the Arc and if Ruling Court wins at Epsom his current price will collapse. The current list will be depleted by September and I feel the William Hill's odds of 12/1 are too big. Paddy Power only go 6/1.

St Leger Ruling Court 12/1

 

Woudn't surprise me at all

 

The Lion In Winter has returned to the head of the market after very strong support this morning. He is now as low as 2/1 in a couple of places. Ladbrokes/Coral are the clear standouts, at the time of writing, offering 7/2. The biggest price you can currently get with any other firm is 5/2.

Delacroix heading in the other direction and now out to as big as 5/1.

 

It is still possible that The Lion In Winter might do it. The question is whether he is any value at the odds.

Timeform now rate Pride Of Arras higher than The Lion In Winter and the Beckett colt was only having his second start in the Dante.

City Of Troy flopped in the Guineas but he still started favourite at Epsom. It was not a good Derby field and the runner up Ambiente Friendly was rated 13 lbs below City Of Troy on 111 coming in. Of course the usual buzz from the assessors is that the second horse has improved and the official handicapped upped him 7lbs to 118 but the truth will out and Ambiente Friendly hasn't won since despite a change of stable. His official mark is now 111, would you believe right back to where he went into the Derby.
This year's Derby looks stronger, with a Guineas winner in there and improving types at, or near, The Lion In Winter's rating. Stablemate Delacroix is only a couple of pounds behind and looks a more proven staying prospect.

City Of Troy was almost certainly helped in his comeback by facing a poor quality field. He went on to win the Eclipse by 1 length from the 112 rated Al Riffa. He was a colt dubbed "Our Frankel", by Michael Tabor but to my eyes he was simply competing in weak Gp1 races. Arguably Dancing Gemini was the best of the opposition in both the Derby and The Eclipse.

Anyone taking 2/1 ante post The Lion In Winter is off their rocker. The horse has plenty to prove and will surely start bigger on the day. The only reason I can see that he would run is that the other Ballydoyle contenders are not up to scratch despite mopping up the pitiful trials. O'brien could only muster one for the 2000 Guineas in the end and he was well stuffed 9th of 11.

The trials look as poor as I can recall and thank goodness Godolphin can at least offer some resistance to Coolmore, who are able to win the trials with their 5th,6th and 7th string.