Friday's Meetings Leicester Flat 7 Races 1:30-5:02p.m. Aintree N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m. Bath Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:25p.m. Wexford N/H 7 Races 3:45-7:00p.m. Southwell(E) A/W 8 Races 4:45-8:30p.m. Dundalk(E) A/W 7 Races 5:07-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Aintree 16.05 Escaria Ten 66/1 e/w bet365 six places, 66/1 Lads five places, 50/1 Coral six places, 33/1 sky seven places
Didn't fancy anything today (Thursday) but thought I had a banker bet at 2/1 for Friday, until I looked further into the form. For info it was Caballo De Mar in the 7.30 Southwell. He is a C&D winer twice and in October won easing up in a fast time. Great I thought. But he then had a break of 165 days before winning again over C&D but almost 12 secs slower. Looks as though he was overaced as a 3yo (9 runs in 4 months, 3 in June) and after winning in such a slow time I just wonder if that break was due to an injury that was "fixed" for his return. He is described as progressive but I can't make out why Bottom line is I've had a change of heart even though I just noticed he is blue almost across the board at 13/8 best price and mainly around 5/4 ish Don't fancy anything else
I’m confused. What does the time comparison between two different races on different days show? Genuine question, are you saying the second run wasn’t as good because the race was slower?
Gordon Elliott is 36 runners without a winner. Can Romeo Coolio end his hoodoo today? He is the clear form pick and ought to rate the nap of the day but the yard form is a worry.
Did a silly e/w double and singles when the final dec were done. both 100/1 14.20 Minella Missile 17.15 Comier Now that the day has come, don't really fancy either to place but can't pick anything else so will include them in 2 patents at current prices with Eldorado Allen & Lounge Lizard in the Topham
I hope so, THE GOFFER 18/1 Aintree 4:05 Has run in just about every unsuitable race you could imagine over the last eighteen and subsequently arrives here back at his last winning mark and dropped back to his optimum trip. The going on the National course should be fine although a little bit softer would have been ideal. Jumped round here in the National so the fences shouldn’t faze him.
Aintree Day 2, 1:45 - Caldwell Potter 2:20 - Helnwein & Wreckless Eric 2:55 - Salvator Mundi 3:30 - El Fab 4:05 - Shantreudde & Ginny's Destiny 4:40 - Familiar Dreams & Mister Meggit 5:15 - Alnilam & Moon Chime Had a bet on them all bar Sal Mundi and El Fab... Singles and combos on the rest... Had a half decent day yesterday, so can only be down hill from here... Good luck to all who are playing today...
Ok, I do find this a bizarre analysis. I've produced a sectionals graph for the two races. This shows why comparing times of races in this manner isn't particularly useful. The blue line shows a strongly run race, where the horses were unable to quicken in the finish and then the orange shows a slowly run race where the horse was able to run furlongs much faster than it did when it won previously. Which performance was best? You could argue that both are equally impressive, for different factors. The former is impressive as he was able to run a fast race throughout, and didn't tire as much as the opposition late in the race. The orange is impressive though because he was able to do a near 11 second furlong after almost 1 1/2 miles of galloping. To me these two races show why he is such an interesting horse. He doesn't need a race to be run at either an end to end pace, or one that turns into a sprint. He can do both. Sorry for the lesson, but it irks me that people use race times without looking into the races.
It really is just a Cheltenham thing with Jonbon isn't it? 18 from 22 and all 4 defeats at Prestbury Park. Undulations?
Those sectionals prove he could do one thing last October and another thing this year after a 165 day break. We don't know why he was off the track for so long after being so active before that. I'm guessing he was over raced last year and suffered some sort of injury that forced his break. Obviously I could be wide of the mark. Question is Nass, could he repeat that earlier performance after whatever kept him off the course for so long. Any horse in training could have run that last race in that time. Sectionals are, of course, very meaningful but those sectionals just show he can sprint after a leisurely gallop. It doesn't mean he can still run to the form he showed in the race last October. And that is why I withdrew from making him a banker bet (ie there was a big enough doubt)
Normally I would say yes. But, to me, 12 seconds slower time is an exceptional amount; enough to raise a doubt in my mind
