Thursday's Meetings Naas N/H 8 Races 1:25-5:30p.m. Aintree N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m. Plumpton N/H 6 Races 1:55-4:05p.m. Sedgefield N/H 6 Races 2:07-5:02p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:25-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Aintree 16,05 Milan Forth 14/1 e/w WH and Coral five places, 14/1 Lads four, 12/1 bet365 and sky five places
Cheltenham and Aintree only 3 weeks apart. I’m sure it’s normally 4. Will be interesting to see how many can back up given the short time between meetings given some trainers prefer to run their horses 3/4 times per season! Personally from a betting perspective I’ll be favouring those that come here fresh so probably best to lump on the Cheltenham horses!
Since 2015, 957 horses ran at Cheltenham festival and then at Aintree. 100 winners with a 10.45% strike rate. Winners against expectations is interesting, just -.014 fewer winners than expected!! However what I found interesting and surprising was - Days Since Last Run (Range) - Runners - Winners - Strike Rate % 15-21 - 145 - 17 - 12% 22-28 - 500 - 52 - 10% 29-32 - 312 - 31 - 10% So it would seem that the quick turnaround isn't as much of a problem as you might expect.
5:25 - 12 Runner Handicap Over 1m2f Chelmsford is another course where pace plays a major role, with horses who lead holding a +1.79 IV, showing they perform better than those ridden in prominent or held-up positions. This race has a few notable pace angles, including Oyamal, Cryptos Dream, Global Resolve, and Foinix, all of whom could set or contest the early fractions. Oyamal Has one CD run, where he led and finished third, beaten by 1.3 lengths. It suited him well that day, but he’s yet to win in 12 career starts and looks quite limited overall. Cryptos Dream A much more intriguing contender. He’s won 6 times from 39 runs, 3 of those wins over this distance. He’s 1 from 3 at the course, but his two defeats here were at this distance, which is slightly concerning. His CD run behind Stintino Sunset was decent, and he’s now slipped 8lb below that mark, making him look well handicapped. Global Resolve A maiden with just one career place to his name, but that was a promising effort over CD when he finished behind River Alwen. Since then, however, he’s disappointed at Lingfield, Southwell, and even over hurdles at Fakenham. A return to CD might reignite improvement, but it’s far from certain. Foinix A multiple winner with form over course and distance. His yard’s runners often attract market interest, which will likely be key here. Jockey Joe Leavy brings an impressive record for the yard, with 3 wins and 3 places from 11 rides—a notable angle. Stintino Sunset Top weight and one to watch. He’s had two CD runs, winning off 1lb lower in the same race where Cryptos Dream finished behind him. Held up that day, he came through with a strong finish. His subsequent fifth-place finish wasn’t as convincing, but he’s now back on a winnable mark and holds plenty of appeal. It’s Tim The current favorite but a lightly raced maiden. Coming from a decent yard, he’s not shown much to suggest he’s up to this level yet. Hijo De La Luna Support in the market stems from his solid Newcastle run nine days ago. However, he’s a 20-race maiden, and there’s little evidence he’ll break his duck here. Night Arc Last won in 2023 but brings at least some winning form to the table. He ran well at Wolverhampton 22 days ago and has 1 win from 3 over this trip. This will be his first course start, so his running style and positioning will be interesting. Normally held up, he’s been eye-catching in his last two starts and drops to a competitive mark—he’s a danger to all. A messy and unpredictable contest, but that creates potential value in the market. For me, the standouts are Cryptos Dream at 11/1 and Stintino Sunset at 16/1—both horses with proven form and experience at this level.
Very quickly on Aintree (stats since 2015) Horses who won at Cheltenham follow up 26% of the time when turning out at Aintree Horses who finish second at Cheltenham won 23% of the time at Aintree Horses finishing third at Cheltenham 10% of the time at Aintree However, its 10% or above for horses finishing 8th, 9th and 11th at Cheltenham too!! Also horses who unseat at Cheltenham are at 28% strike rate at Aintree and horses who were brought down are 1 from 3 Horses who fell at Cheltenham are 16% win strike rate at Aintree. I think what this shows is, just back whichever horse you think is going to win, and don't worry about if they had an incident at Cheltenham. However, don't always expect winning and placed form to stand up.
Aintree Day 1 fancies (small stakes e/w Lucky 15) 1.45 Croke Park 2.20 Filibustering 4.05 My Drogo 5.15 Jackie Hobbs Good luck folks
Away from Aintree....taking two against the hot fav in the 2.42 Sedgefield Tom Creen & Beat The Edge 1pt win on each @ 9-2 [BOG]
Aintree, day 1 1:45 - Impaire et Passe 2:20 - Murcia 2:55 - Grey Dawning 3:30 - Conny Hill 4:05 - Lifetime Ambition, Milan Forth 4:40 - Petite Tonnerre, Galonggung 5:15 - Kapability, Kingston Queen Had a few doubles with the shorter priced ones, not Conny Hill though, ew trixie on the last three races with the first named above... Good luck to all if you are having a play today...
Afternoon all. I've backed two today, Famous Clermont and Seo Linn in the lucky last. The rest of the card looks tricky enough so happy to watch it play out.
Aintree, day 1 2:20 - Gibbs Island 2:55 - The Real whacker 4:05 - Jet Plane 4:40 - Calico 5:15 - Queen Kate All each way
18:00 Chelmsford- Shahbaz Class-4 Handicap over 1m2f on the Polytrack surface. Free Eagle gelding has a chance at last to gain a podium finish after being unsuccesful for a long time. Good performance LTO after being well-backed. Billy Loughnane rides for the Ian Williams yard. 7/2 best price in many places on the ATR site, at time of writing.
