the relegation rivals

He is
If the replacement is
Joseph upfront like today

 

And yet he is our top scorer, shows you how abject we are in front of goal

 

Just looking at our remaining games. Wednesday (a), Watford (a), Coventry (h), Swansea (a) next 4. All tough games. Who knows ...especially with us ....and especially with our weaknesses up front ...we could easily struggle to get even one win. Then Preston likely with them having nothing much to play for hopefully. With Derby and Pompey to finish with. Really now fearing the last 2 decide our fate and if that is the case I'd have next to zero confidence of us pulling it off in those 2 games. So much for us having an easier run in. We are back in massive trouble.

 

Three wins from the final six and we're sorted. That's doable. Two wins and a draw from those games wouldn't be a disaster. Anything less and we're relying on other teams helping us, which is never what you want.

Pedro needs to come straight in for Joseph, lad doesn't look like scoring in the current set up if I'm being brutally honest. He's not a write off by any stretch, but there are times today where some of those crosses would have seen Pedro getting chances and KJ always seemed to be a foot or two behind where the ball was going to be. That comes down to practice, basically.

Hold onto your arseholes chaps.

 

From what I’ve been reading, you’d think we’d just been confirmed as relegated.

It’s not time to panic yet. We were never going to go unbeaten and we were always going to drop points to teams around us due to our inconsistency this season.

However, it’s still in our hands, and even with our loss today, no team below Stoke has bettered our points return over the last 10 games. Yes, Derby can if they make it four wins in a row, but even if they do we won’t be back in the bottom three.

As long as we respond like we have done so far under Sellés and pick up points like we have over the last 3 or 4 months we should be okay.

 

Pedro offers much more than goals though. And tbf his last one was sublime. He is probably our best chance of getting the goals for survival.
I'd stick in Amrabat for Kamara, as I like his strength and know-how. We'll hopefully have Barry back on the other side soon, with Gelhardt in the middle for Palmer. That might look alright.

 

Don't know if Amrabat could manage 45 minutes - never mind 90! I'd be pleasantly surprised if we saw Barry before Easter

 

I like your optimism and your maths but I'm starting to feel like we might just run out of time to absorb the occasional point dropped. Hope I'm wrong, UTT!

 

You may be right about Amrabat, though I imagine it's a guess, rather than anything you've seen, given the minutes that he's had.

 

I guess the other way to look at it is whether the teams below us are running out of time to gain those additional points.

City, Luton and Plymouth, have all taken 12 points from the last 10 games. Derby have take 11, and Cardiff 9. For Luton, Plymouth and Derby that still hasn’t been enough to get them out of it.

Our form under Sellés suggests we’ll get 9 points from our seven remaining games. If we do, it would mean Cardiff need 11 due to our better goal difference. That’s three wins and 2 draws, or going unbeaten with 2 wins and five draws.

Whatever the number ends up being, they need to match our results and find two additional points from somewhere, either through one more win than us, or two additional draws.

With each game that passes it becomes a much bigger ask.

 

This stage of the season it all boils down to momentum, forget points averages it's bollox, a team that starts picking up results especially wins will clear the relegation zone pdq with whats left, up to the international break id have said we were heading into he right direction, yesterday was very damaging, Derby are on a good run, Pompey are doing the business at home, and we've just given Luton a major boost. It's gonna be tight no mate what but please don't do the algorithms to work out what will happen, every season is different.

 

This was my point in saying that a draw with Luton wouldn't have been the end of the world that seemed to become a source of continued ridicule by taking it quite literally that I was somehow suggesting it was the preferable result. People need to keep in mind there's now 7 games of the season left.

While it's right to focus on Cardiff (to emphasise the value of not being the side directly above the relegation zone), Derby could just as easily drop off as well. I'm not convinced Preston automatically lose to them as a few have suggested.

 

What other teams have done thus far doesn't mean they won't put a run together now, though. The last sentence only rings true if we take the 9 points you suggest we will get earlier in your post

 

From what I've seem of Amrabat, he's an okay impact sub with about 30 minutes left. Doubt he's got much more in the tank. There's a reason why he isn't starting games

 

Completely agree with you. At this stage, even a single point means the teams below us are under a lot of pressure to find those extra points.

If Derby manage a fourth win in a row they deserve to be out of the bottom three. I hope they lose – obviously – as it keeps another team in the mix with a lot to do in very little time. However, it’s an absolute must win for them and if they step up under that pressure then fair play to them.

 

What’s stopping us from putting a run together?

Regarding the 9 points I mentioned: we’ve taken that level of points per game consistently under Sellés. If city suddenly fail now, then we’ve totally bottled it. We look inconsistent, but I don’t think we look like a team that will collapse that badly.

 

Nothing to stop us putting a run together either. I said in another post that we are now in 7 game mini league with the teams below us and we need to make sure we match the results of 3 of those teams to be safe.

 

Some of the teams we play have nothing to play for, which might give us an edge because we are fighting for it.

Maybe.

 

The more positive mindset is that we already lead the race and the teams below us have to not only match our results, but better them.

To overtake us over the next seven games, Cardiff need two extra draws or an extra win; Luton need an extra win and an extra draw – Derby will need the same if they lose on Wednesday; and Plymouth need two wins and a draw on top of our results.

Cardiff have the easiest of it, so hopefully Derby lose on Tuesday because that would help us a lot.

 

Remember that end of season home game against Sunderland who were already relegated, all we had to do was beat them to stay up and we didn't, didn't even try, another weak as piss performance.