I think it could be the great man's turn this year with Hyland. Currently number 36 so he ought to get a run and he ticks a lot of the stat boxes (the obvious one he doesn't tick is experience but I think with 6 chases under his belt and form of 141122 he ought to have the wherewithall). There are worse 25/1 shots in the field.
The National is now only Grand in name. I will watch it but it's become a long distance high hurdle race. Doubt you'll ever get horses like Russian Hero, Gay Trip or Crisp running in it, because it's not the same race. They were all specialist 2 to "&1/2 milers by the way. What a shame.
The 3 that I like, at this stage, would be Intense Raffles (its hard to argue that this horse is anything but incredibly well handicapped. Potentially thrown in), Three Card Brag (is part-owned by one of the biggest nutjobs in the game, is trained by someone I'd rather not even mention but does look well treated on what he has hinted, at times, he looks capable of) and at a huge price Appreciate It (has got Class with a capital 'C', is by a sire who has already had a GN winner and looked very good again last time out. There is, obviously, the 'Charlie Slater' factor re him but his odds more than account for this possibility).
I agree Bustino. I mean, just look at those stats that I have highlighted. In the good old days, when it was the Grand National, the first place I looked was the previous year's race to see if anything had got in on a good mark. You could eliminate half the field with confidence. They needed to be able to jump those fences for a start. Now, as you say it is like a long distance hurdle race (although that is rather an exaggeration). Which means they are all in with a chance and less liklihood of the class horses dropping out during the race. It also gives the younger horse an advantage they never had before. Obviously it has made it safer for horses, which is great, but the fascination of the Grand National has been lost.
Listen, the bottom line is that my mum, sister, other half and all of her side of the family will be wanting me to put bets on for them and will be watching the race like it's the best race ever...!! Not one of those people mentioned, well bar my misses who only wants to know if I've won so I can take her out, asked me one question about Cheltenham...!! It is a great race, always will be a great race, but not to all and that's where it is now amongst the majority of people who watch racing week in week out... Let's not spoil it for the others...
I went to Aintree a few years ago and, having got to the course well before racing started, I left the others in the bar and took a walk down the back straight of the national course. I can highly recommend doing this and as I stood on the landing side of Becher's Brook I still thought it looked like a fearsome obstacle. I googled Becher's Brook and from the wikipedia page I found out that serious modifications to the fence were made after the 1987 and 1989 Nationals. In 1987 Dark Ivy fell and died instantly from a cervical fracture and 2 years later there 6 fallers at Becher's on the first circuit and TV viewers were treated to the field being waved away from a dead horse on the landing side of the fence on the 2nd circuit. I just watched both of these races on YouTube and it is pretty horrible stuff to be honest. I think the race remains the ultimate chasing challenge yet is much safer for the horses and that has to be a good thing.
Yeah I did the National course walk about 10 years ago Oddy and Bechers was pretty imposing up close.
It’s sad that they gave in to the Animal Rights Brigade. The course is now just a glorified park course. Yes, you will get fallers, owing to the number of runners and hurly burly of the event, although, interestingly, there wasn’t technically a single faller last year (4 ‘unseats’). On the form book, Intense Raffles is about a stone well in, having a turn around of 15lbs with Nick Rockett for less than a length beating. His rider worries me, though, he unseats too easily over fences for my liking. Otherwise, I quite like Hyland off 10st 6lbs. He brings a good record forwards from his novice chasing days, and has performed well since in handicaps.
This is a good watch from today's Luck On Sunday - particulalrly the section with William Morgan talking about racing of yesteryear in the midlands (starts around 12:20 in)
Grand National preview: Unexposed Iroko can show his class please log in to view this image By Tony McFadden — published 1st April 2025 Tony McFadden outlines the Timeform view on the Grand National. It was a fantastic Cheltenham Festival for trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. Not only did their only runner at this year's meeting, Jagwar, land the Plate, but the Grand National claims of their first Cheltenham Festival winner Iroko (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 183p) were given a couple of boosts. Things didn't go smoothly for Iroko, the 2023 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle winner, during his first campaign over fences last term as he met with a setback after winning on his chasing debut at Warwick in November and it was a rush to get him back in time for the Festival. He understandably looked rusty when thrown into the deep end in the Grade 1 Turners Novices' Chase, plugging on into fifth, but he showed he wasn't out of place at that level when runner-up in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. It looked like a good effort at the time to split Inothewayurthinkin, an easy winner of the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, and Heart Wood, a wide-margin winner of a valuable handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. But that form looks even stronger now following the latest Cheltenham Festival where Inothewayurthinkin won the Gold Cup and Heart Wood was runner-up in the Ryanair Chase. Unlike that pair, Iroko hasn't shown much-improved this season, but he has shaped with promise on all three completed starts and posted a very smart effort when chasing home a potentially top-class chaser in Grey Dawning at Kelso last month. That encouraging performance at Kelso and his runner-up effort at Aintree last season suggest that Iroko is potentially well treated from a BHA mark of 152 and he will top Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National if, as expected, Midlands National winner Mr Vango (184) fails to make the cut. In addition to being well treated on form, Iroko remains with untapped potential after only seven starts over fences and is the only runner in the line-up with the Timeform 'p' to denote he's a likely improver. As with many in the field, stamina is an unknown as he steps markedly up in trip, but he's seen things out well on his two starts at around three miles over fences which offers encouragement he can cope with this much stiffer test. Iroko will form part of a strong team for owner JP McManus which includes last year's seven-and-a-half-length winner I Am Maximus (176). I Am Maximus hasn't always been a fluent jumper and in years gone by perhaps may have struggled over the Aintree fences, but the modifications mean the course is no longer such a daunting test and he was able to stamp his class on a race in which, remarkably, there were no fallers and only four who unseated their riders. On Timeform ratings, I Am Maximus' performance was right up there with the best by a Grand National winner this century, so the BHA handicapper has unsurprisingly had a say and he'll be carrying top weight off an 8 lb higher mark this time around. That will make life more difficult, as might a less-than-ideal preparation after a small setback forced him to miss the Bobbyjo Chase that he had won so impressively last year. The fact he's trained by Willie Mullins perhaps reduces the concern about the impact of that missed prep run, but you are having to take on trust that he's in the same sort of form as last year. Focus on Gavin Cromwell's team One of McManus' team very much arriving in form is Perceval Legallois (181). He has taken a while to get his act together over fences, occasionally held back by sloppy jumping, but he delivered the sort of performance he had long since looked capable of in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. That big-field affair is often one of the most competitive in the calendar but Perceval Legallois was well on top at the finish, storming to a seven-length success despite being only fourth jumping the final fence. He's understandably been hit with a significant rise in the weights but even an 11 lb higher mark may not anchor him based on how dominant he was at Leopardstown, especially as his strength in the finish bodes well for his prospects of seeing out this much longer trip. He confirmed he's very much at the top of his game by winning a valuable handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival when last seen. Perceval Legallois, who represents the connections of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin, is not the only horse trained by Gavin Cromwell who takes high rank on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings. Stumptown (182) didn't look obviously well treated following the initial release of the weights, but he has stronger claims now following a career-best effort in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham which saw him win by seven lengths off the same mark he will compete from in the Grand National. The Cross Country has proved a significant Grand National pointer in recent years. Tiger Roll won both races in 2018 and 2019, while Delta Work, the 2022 and 2023 Cross Country winner, was third in the 2022 Grand National and runner-up last year. Galvin was runner-up in the 2023 Cross Country Chase and fourth in last year's Grand National. Stamina shouldn't be an issue for Stumptown, who was remarkably strong after the final obstacle in the Cross Country to pull seven lengths clear up the run-in, but he does need to prove that he can replicate the improved form he has shown in that discipline in a much more competitive and classier environment. He was beaten from a BHA mark of 147 at Cheltenham last April the last time he contested a conventional handicap chase. Also representing Cromwell is Vanillier (178), the 2023 Grand National runner-up who was third in last month's Cross Country Chase and may have given his stablemate plenty to think about had he not almost taken the wrong course and lost ground early in the contest. That showed there's still plenty of spark left in Vanillier, and he is able to run off the same mark as when runner-up in 2023, but he's a ten-year-old now and the suspicion is that he may have already had his best chance of winning the Grand National. Hewick well supported in recent weeks You have to go back to Pineau de Re in 2014 to find the last time a horse aged older than nine won the Grand National - in what is probably a reflection of the changing nature of the race - but Hewick (179) looks to hold solid claims. The ten-year-old is able to run off a mark 1 lb lower than when unseating his rider at the final fence when looking the likely winner of the 2022 Kerry National. He's enjoyed some fine days in graded company since then, most notably when finishing with a flourish to win the King George VI Chase at Kempton last season on the only previous occasion he was ridden by Gavin Sheehan, and his runner-up effort in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November demonstrated that he retains plenty of ability. He showed his wellbeing when making the most of a good opportunity in a conditions hurdle at Thurles last month that should set him up nicely for a belated first tilt at the Grand National, and he appeals as one that is likely to take to the course given he's demonstrated his versatility over different obstacles in races like the American Grand National and French Champion Hurdle. There's a lot to like about his chance, but his price has dried up in recent weeks and he doesn't have the untapped potential of an Iroko or Perceval Legallois. Last season's Irish Grand National winner Intense Raffles (179+) is another fairly prominent on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings after running so well in the Bobbyjo Chase following the release of the weights. He hadn't shown much in two starts over hurdles this season but proved a different proposition back over fences in the Bobbyjo where he made high-class Thyestes winner Nick Rockett (176) dig very deep to prevail. Intense Raffles was conceding 3 lb to the winner last time but will be in receipt of 12 lb here, so he is very much the one to take out of the Bobbyjo, for all fourth-placed Minella Cocooner (173) has been heavily supported in recent days and did well in major staying handicaps last spring by finishing third in the Irish National before winning the Bet365 Gold Cup. That Bobbyjo effort was Intense Raffles' first defeat over fences since joining Tom Gibney, and he already has a hugely valuable staying handicap chase to his name, so his credentials are difficult to knock. However, his form has come on soft or heavy ground, so quicker conditions would pose a different question and he'll be taking on classier rivals than previously. Hyland bidding to give Henderson a first National winner Of those at bigger prices, Hyland (180) shows up well on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings based on the form he showed when runner-up in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton. That form has not been fully tested as the two-and-a-half-length winner The Jukebox Man subsequently met with an injury and was ruled out for the rest of the campaign, but third-placed Masaccio, who was 16 lengths behind Hyland, ran well to finish placed in a couple of competitive handicaps, including the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Hyland himself ran well on his only subsequent outing when runner-up in the valuable Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase back at Kempton. He's bidding to give Nicky Henderson a first winner in the Grand National and aiming to become the third novice winner of the last decade following Rule The World and Noble Yeats. Mr Vango has enjoyed a fantastic season and won all three starts this term, comprising the London National, Peter Marsh and Midlands National. Based on his Midlands National effort he would top Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings if getting a run, though that looks unlikely and he probably needs softer ground in any case. A couple worth a positive mention at bigger prices are Beauport (176+) and Grangeclare West (177). Last season's Midlands National winner Beauport proved better than ever when bolting up in a handicap chase on his return at Ascot in November and has finished placed in a couple of graded hurdles subsequently, while Grangeclare West has a rather patchy profile and hardly had the ideal prep by failing to beat a rival in the Webster Cup, but prior to that he had split Galopin des Champs and Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup so certainly has a touch of class. That touch of class is looking increasingly important in modern-day Nationals and it is Iroko, whose Grade 1 novice chase form has been so well advertised, who is perhaps the strongest contender. Ten highest-rated Grand National runners Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings: 184 Mr Vango 183p Iroko 182 Stumptown 181 Perceval Legallois 180 Hyland 179+ Intense Raffles 179 Hewick 178 Threeunderthrufive 178 Vanillier 178 Three Card Brag
I'll stick with Hyland to break Henderson's duck. Hopefully Nico's mojo has been perked up by Jonbon yesterday.
Brought my Father in to bet on the Grand National yesterday in PADDY POWER'S at 2.30pm he placed a 10 euro win bet on Nick Rockett and took the 12/1 on offer. He bets once a year and this is it. I went into collect it for him this morning fully expecting his winnings to be 340 euro as a result of Nick Rockett going off at 33/1 only to be told that PADDY POWER weren't paying BOG on the race as they offered 8 places instead! The lady working was understanding and sympathetic and told me she was telling any punters to not write the price down who came to her nearer the race and that they had a little placard stating they wouldn't be BOG in small print near the cashier. I have to say I was a bit disgruntled and I simply couldn't believe that a big bookmaker like PADDY POWER, on the biggest revenue race of the year would not payout the better odds on a race such as they Grand National. I have to say it really would put you off backing, what chance do you have when the bookies are taking such huge edges on the punter and putting it up in such miniscule fashion knowing most people would miss the memo. Wasn't sure where to post but needed to rant as I feel it is as poor a standard of practice as I have come across in all my betting days.
Here are the revised stats / trends then after the '25 renewal of the race. 24 of the last 30 Grand National winners were making their Grand National debuts. Since Liberthine took fifth in the 2007 Grand National Nicky Henderson's record in the big race reads -FU9U0FPP0UF0P8P. No horse wearing the number '1' on the racecard has won the Grand National since 1974 (in fact, since this date, only two horses allocated '1' on the racecard have finished in the first 4). In the Grand National, since 2012, horses aged 12YO+ are 0/45. No English trained horse has won, the Grand National, since 2015. Nigel Twiston-Davies is 0/14, in the Grand National, since 2013. 10 of the last 12 winners had already got their head in front in the season of their Grand National victory. Not since Boobyjo, in 1999, has a winner of the race carried less than 10st 3lb. Mon Mome, in 2009, was the last horse to win the Grand National after having being beaten in the race previously. 10YOs are 0/106, in the race, since 2013. The last Grand National runner-up to win the race 12 months later was Red Rum in 1977 - the formline of the last 11 to try is -F9U0UFP0UP0. The formline, in the Grand National, of horses who had been placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on their previous start reads (from the early 80's) -240FBFP471U2FF45U (1/17). The '1' was Rough Quest in 1996. The last Welsh trained winner, of the Grand National, was Kirkland in 1905. No mare has won the race since 1951. Only 2 out of the past 41 winners, of the Grand National, had won or placed in the race previously. The past 10 winners were all aged 9 or younger. 12 out of the past 15 winners, of the Grand National, were Irish bred. The winner of that season's Haydock Park Grand National Trial has a formline of -75P0P6P (0/7) when running in the Grand National since 2000. No Wiltshire trained horse has won the Grand National since 1937. In the last 16 years 24 horses, in the race, have gone to post rated higher than 160 - there formline is -FUPP00B5UPBPUF400002P138 (the winner was Nick Rockett at 33/1). The GN debut one was enhanced as was forum pin-up Nicky Henderson's negative one. I Am Maximus came very close to ending the hoodoo fixed on the Number 1 numbercloth - however, he ultimately didn't despite great, great heroics. Meanwhile, the 9YO or younger stat and the winner being Irish bred were both further boosted. Nick Rockett's success also was a 'plus' to those who avoid animals who have already being beaten in the GN and support those with winning form already in the current term. 'Laughing at the English' continues though as Nick Rockett's win means that '26 will mark 11 years since an English trained horse has won the Grand National!!! The main 'break from the norm' was the winner being rated higher than 160. But such horses winning in the last decade and a half, or so, is still somewhat rare - 1/24. But can I just finish by remarking on the 10 day ban Michael Nolan received for his ride on Celebre D'Allen. If the reports are even half true then in my opinion he should have at least two 0's added to that 10 days. Many (even already on this very thread) have remarked that the sport has gone 'soft' however this leniency suggests that is a million miles from reality.
They really are vermin STH. Will never get the attention it deserves either whilst TV, trainers, ex jockeys et al are all on the bookies payroll.
Didn’t see the race live as was out enjoying the sunshine on the golf course but caught up with it this morning. My tuppence worth on it. The national course didn’t look in great nick at all with lots of bare patches. Probably due to loads of pre meeting watering and then the mess created by the national course races on Thurs/Fri? Broadway Boy’s fall was forseeable from early on. Crashed through a few including the 7th where he took out the top 2 feet of loose birch. Was inevitable that he’d get lower as he ran out of petrol. Thankfully looks like a 2nd year with no fatalities which is of course great but not sure it’s more luck than judgement. That said the after race care of the horses appeared to be outstanding. To my eye the winner looked a little bit punch drunk at the end. I put up 3 selections: Hewick ran well to finish 8th. Beauport ran a fine race for 80% until the class horses took over. Grangeclare West I think would have won but for a last fence blunder. here’s the stinger. I got convinced via a podcast that Senior Chief had a great chance. I couldn’t back more than 3 so ditched Grangeclare West for SC. SC finished 6th and my EW AP voucher, at less odds than he lined up I should add, was first 5. Lessons: ignore podcasts and don’t bet until the day
