the relegation rivals

Penultimate game...

 

We just cannot afford to be giving up stupid points now. So, Luton is the first test, we have to be ruthless.

 

wayyyy before that hopefully

 

Won the last 2 home games looking fairly comfortable, drawn the last 2 aways with hardworking gritty performances. That’s a good return. Need to keep it going. We’re defending well but it’s still not convincing upfront.

Wouldn’t it be nice to batter a team at least once this season?

 

Bring on Luton...

 

Don't think we are going to better 4-1 against Cardiff early on this season. Remaining games probably be tight and nervy

 

QPR and even Preston aren't mathematically out of it, but you'd think they'd only need one more win to be pretty much there.

I put this in my other thread, but I think out of all the remaining teams, Cardiff, Portsmouth and Plymouth have it toughest and I'm not sure Luton will have enough. For me it'll be Plymouth, Cardiff and the either Pompey or Luton on the final day. Probably Luton because I think that mini run Portsmouth went on the last few games might just save them.

 

A sneaky tenner on Preston might be worth it, they've only won 1 in 6 and have been shocking.

 

I'd quite like them to be safely mid table as usual by Easter Monday tbh. Ditto Swansea by Good Friday.

 

Form is more likely ephemeral than permanent. For all clubs - so many variables.
Ask #Mandelbrot.

 

The big question with Derby is whether they can maintain their form under Eustace until the end of the season, because they must if they want to reach 50 points.

They need 12 from 8 which is 1.5 points per game. The equivalent of winning every other game.

There are a few of ways they can achieve this:

1. 4+ wins
2. 3 wins, 3 draws
3. 2 wins, 6 draws

Looking at the fixtures that Toast posted, if Derby manage that, they’ll be taking a lot of points from other teams around the bottom. In some ways it might actually be beneficial to us for them to do it.

Derby County (22nd) - Current Form - LLLWWW
Preston H
Swansea A
Burnley H
Portsmouth A
Luton H
WBA A
Hull City A
Stoke H

Then, both stoke and Cardiff need 11 from 8. They can achieve this with:

1. 4+ wins
2. 3 wins, 2 draws
3. 2 wins, 5 draws

This would probably require Stoke beating both Luton and Cardiff, upsetting one of the teams near the top, and getting a few draws elsewhere.

Cardiff are going to need to get a lot of results from better teams, and I don’t think it looks likely at all from their fixtures.

It doesn’t help either of them that they play each other.

Stoke City (20th) - Current Form - LLDLWL
QPR H
Preston A
Luton H
Cardiff A
Sheffield W H
Leeds A
Sheffield Utd H
Derby A

Cardiff City (21st) - Current Form - DWLLLW
Sheffield W H
QPR A
Preston A
Stoke H
Sheffield Utd A
Oxford H
WBA H
Norwich A

We only need 9 from 8 to reach 50. There are a few ways we can achieve this:

1. 3 wins
2. 2 wins, 3 draws
3. 1 win, 6 draws

Hull City (19th) - Current Form - WLWDWD
Luton H
Sheffield W A
Watford A
Coventry H
Swansea A
Preston H
Derby H
Portsmouth A

I know Derby are only 3 points behind, but at this stage of the season they still need to do quite a lot more work over the course of the remaining games.

 

I’ve updated this following this weekend’s results and now have:

18. Hull – 51
19. Stoke – 47
20. Cardiff – 47
21. Derby – 47
22. Oxford – 46
23. Luton – 42
24. Plymouth – 41

 

->"I think Derbys wins are a blip and that will be clear after the Plymouth game"
And Oxford won yesterday yet are now forecast to finish 2 places lower?

Please don't give up your day job and best keep well away from bookies

 

Don’t all these stats suck the life out of the game? Or is it just me?

 

Ultimately... if we get the posts we need, @@@@ the rest of them because they didnt..

 

I know this really means nothing but...

We all know its our home form that has let us down and our remaining home games and their position in the away league table are

Luton 23
Coventry 6
Preston 17
Derby 20

Based on that's its only Coventry that's worrying at home and I feel we can pick up points against anyone away.

I think I'm just trying to convince myself more than anything

 

Maybe but it's just something to talk about while waiting for the next game

 

Lets talk about women instead then, there's plenty of 'em on here.

 

It’s only three games. Don’t forget that we won three in a row back in September/early October and then didn’t win again until December.

Derby haven’t established these results as a sustainable pattern yet.

If you look at Derby’s form under Eustace they’ve lost just as many as they’ve won, earning 9 points. In that same time we’ve earned 11.

If you look at their last 10 games they’ve only taken 11 points. We’ve taken 15 in that time.

They might be picking up points but, at this moment in time, we’re still picking up more on average.

I’d imagine that’s why the bookies’ odds of us going down are 14/1 while Derby are still 6/4.