the relegation rivals

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Ernie Shackleton said:
Won the last 2 home games looking fairly comfortable, drawn the last 2 aways with hardworking gritty performances. That’s a good return. Need to keep it going. We’re defending well but it’s still not convincing upfront.

Wouldn’t it be nice to batter a team at least once this season?
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Don't think we are going to better 4-1 against Cardiff early on this season. Remaining games probably be tight and nervy
 
Gone For A Walk said:
QPR, Swansea and Portsmouth dragged back into it?
The 1st 2 probably have enough to be safe, given they'll likely manage a couple of wins.
Probably too big an ask now for Plymouth.
But it's far from over, with up to 10 sides still in the mix (including us).
With everyone showing they are more than capable of pulling of surprise results, plenty of twists & turns still to come?
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QPR and even Preston aren't mathematically out of it, but you'd think they'd only need one more win to be pretty much there.

I put this in my other thread, but I think out of all the remaining teams, Cardiff, Portsmouth and Plymouth have it toughest and I'm not sure Luton will have enough. For me it'll be Plymouth, Cardiff and the either Pompey or Luton on the final day. Probably Luton because I think that mini run Portsmouth went on the last few games might just save them.
 
The big question with Derby is whether they can maintain their form under Eustace until the end of the season, because they must if they want to reach 50 points.

They need 12 from 8 which is 1.5 points per game. The equivalent of winning every other game.

There are a few of ways they can achieve this:
  1. 4+ wins
  2. 3 wins, 3 draws
  3. 2 wins, 6 draws
Looking at the fixtures that Toast posted, if Derby manage that, they’ll be taking a lot of points from other teams around the bottom. In some ways it might actually be beneficial to us for them to do it.

Derby County (22nd) - Current Form - LLLWWW
Preston H
Swansea A
Burnley H
Portsmouth A
Luton H
WBA A
Hull City A
Stoke H

Then, both stoke and Cardiff need 11 from 8. They can achieve this with:
  1. 4+ wins
  2. 3 wins, 2 draws
  3. 2 wins, 5 draws
This would probably require Stoke beating both Luton and Cardiff, upsetting one of the teams near the top, and getting a few draws elsewhere.

Cardiff are going to need to get a lot of results from better teams, and I don’t think it looks likely at all from their fixtures.

It doesn’t help either of them that they play each other.

Stoke City (20th) - Current Form - LLDLWL
QPR H
Preston A
Luton H
Cardiff A
Sheffield W H
Leeds A
Sheffield Utd H
Derby A

Cardiff City (21st) - Current Form - DWLLLW
Sheffield W H
QPR A
Preston A
Stoke H
Sheffield Utd A
Oxford H
WBA H
Norwich A

We only need 9 from 8 to reach 50. There are a few ways we can achieve this:
  1. 3 wins
  2. 2 wins, 3 draws
  3. 1 win, 6 draws
Hull City (19th) - Current Form - WLWDWD
Luton H
Sheffield W A
Watford A
Coventry H
Swansea A
Preston H
Derby H
Portsmouth A

I know Derby are only 3 points behind, but at this stage of the season they still need to do quite a lot more work over the course of the remaining games.
 
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gftiger said:
I think Derby’s wins are a blip, but that will be clearer after the Plymouth game.

My current prediction for the bottom end of the table based on a combination of the current points per league game under the manager in charge, form over the last 10, and season-long form:

18. Hull – 51
19. Stoke – 48
20. Oxford – 48
21. Cardiff – 45
22. Derby – 43
23. Plymouth – 42
24. Luton – 41
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I’ve updated this following this weekend’s results and now have:

18. Hull – 51
19. Stoke – 47
20. Cardiff – 47
21. Derby – 47
22. Oxford – 46
23. Luton – 42
24. Plymouth – 41
 
gftiger said:
I’ve updated this following this weekend’s results and now have:

18. Hull – 51
19. Stoke – 47
20. Cardiff – 47
21. Derby – 47
22. Oxford – 46
23. Luton – 42
24. Plymouth – 41
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->"I think Derbys wins are a blip and that will be clear after the Plymouth game"
And Oxford won yesterday yet are now forecast to finish 2 places lower?

Please don't give up your day job and best keep well away from bookies
 
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I know this really means nothing but...

We all know its our home form that has let us down and our remaining home games and their position in the away league table are

Luton 23
Coventry 6
Preston 17
Derby 20

Based on that's its only Coventry that's worrying at home and I feel we can pick up points against anyone away.

I think I'm just trying to convince myself more than anything
 
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Gone For A Walk said:
->"I think Derbys wins are a blip and that will be clear after the Plymouth game"
And Oxford won yesterday yet are now forecast to finish 2 places lower?

Please don't give up your day job and best keep well away from bookies
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It’s only three games. Don’t forget that we won three in a row back in September/early October and then didn’t win again until December.

Derby haven’t established these results as a sustainable pattern yet.

If you look at Derby’s form under Eustace they’ve lost just as many as they’ve won, earning 9 points. In that same time we’ve earned 11.

If you look at their last 10 games they’ve only taken 11 points. We’ve taken 15 in that time.

They might be picking up points but, at this moment in time, we’re still picking up more on average.

I’d imagine that’s why the bookies’ odds of us going down are 14/1 while Derby are still 6/4.
 
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