Could have done without Derby winning, thought they were gone before today, but otherwise good results.
Portsmouth and Swansea are the only two teams in the bottom half of the table to have taken more points than us from the last 6 games. We’ve managed to find a good level of form just in time for the last ten games. Even if Derby get out of it, another two teams below us are going to need a sudden improvement in form to see us drop back down into the bottom. Unless we somehow mess it all up, we’re 5 points ahead of the drop and managing 1.2 points per game under Sellés. We should hopefully get 10 to 12 points from our remaining games and finish with around 47 to 49 points. If that happens, the teams in the bottom three are likely to need at least 16 to 18 points to leapfrog us – meaning a potential 50+ points to stay up, which I’m told is never going to happen.
There are some interesting stats that look at the run in, the home and away points per game of each team’s opponents, and where the fixtures will be played to calculate an average. We’re due to play the combined lowest out of everyone in the league. https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=10 For what it’s worth I think we’ll manage three wins, three draws and four losses. 49 points in total.
The only thing I would say here is we still have Luton and Derby to play. Lose both and they are both in striking distance. If we keep up our form over the last 3,5 or 10 games we’ll be fine. Whatever way you look at it - We’re doing alright since Selles came in and we just need the squad to keep their heads.
Incredibly competitive league the Championship. Whilst the three current top sides have been the most consistent almost every club seems to have the ability to turn anyone over on the day. City have lost so many important players through injury it’s been an uphill struggle all season to keep a settled side which in my book is imperative for consistency. On the plus side our steady improvement and points total to date suggests it’s still in our hands and with teams around us still to play there shouldn’t be any excuses really. UTT.
Not necessarily. If we pick up three wins from the other eight games we play, we’ll most likely be in a position that we can afford to lose both of those without it having any great impact. We have two games before Luton and if we manage a win before then there will most likely be a decent buffer between us and the bottom three. If we do win before Luton, a draw against either of the other two teams would give us a more than good enough points return from those three games. We play eight games before we face Derby. We should be on at least 45 points by then if we keep going the way we have. Derby haven’t earned more than a point a game all season so they shouldn’t be on more than 40 by then. It’s worth looking at Derby’s fixture list as they play a lot of the teams around the bottom so if they do turn their form around and pick up points and climb out of it, it’ll be at the expense of the teams around them, probably widening the gap between us and those in the process. As you say, if city keep their heads we’ll be okay. It’s in our hands, we’ve already got a head start and we’re currently in better form than all the teams around us.
And it wouldn't be the same without you being able to post stupid **** (and Syd adding the inevitable like). I'm not preaching doom and gloom at all. I think we will stay up. However, there will be plenty of twists and turns still (as Brucie used to say) and anyone from Portsmouth down is still at risk. To say or pretend otherwise at this stage is just plain stupid. For example, Derby have some winnable games coming up. They've also made a couple of interesting free agent signings which could prove astute once up to speed. It would only take us to do our usual this Wednesday and 1 or more of the current bottom three to pick up a win midweek (Cardiff v Luton, Portsmouth v Plymouth, Derby v Coventry = quite conceivable) and the narrative on here will soon change back. So don't talk stupid. Hopefully we can get a win on Wednesday, now a tad harder without a 1st or 2nd choice CF, and we can breathe more easily.
im talking about the last few weeks, you were insanely negative, thinking we were def down losing to plymouth etc etc
?? Insanely negative? Don't talk stupid. I was like many (most) on here, nothing more, nothing less. Anyway, better things to do than entertain your nonsense.
We’re going to lose games at the same time the teams around us win, it’s inevitable. However, none of the teams at the bottom are capable of stringing decent results together, so it’s pointless panicking game by game. The most likely pattern is that one of the bottom teams will win and then lose two on the bounce – it’s why they’re at the bottom. If a team suddenly wins two or three in a row, that’s a different matter, but enough of the season has passed to show that most likely won’t happen.
How is Derby beating Coventry, a side with something like 9 wins in their last 10 'quite conceivable'?
All season, I just never felt we were at risk. I always thought there were much worse teams than ours. Even under Tim when not getting points/scoring, we looked better than a few sides that we had played.
It's like the people who thought we were a chance of the play offs after beating Sheff Utd and then others thinking we were down after losing to Burnley. The knee jerk, over the top reactions both ways is exhausting.
