They will if they get ahead. We cannot let that happen. The same old script of us toiling to recover something from the game because we've let them go ahead, 70% possession but all with our defenders achieving nothing with it because the opposition are so organised and resolute in defending what they've got. We can't go behind and then complain about our defenders being too slow on the ball to unlock a packed defence. Any **** side can do that to us if we give them something to hold onto. We have to just not get into that position in the first place. Score first and then score second.
That's why I think we'd be better playing as if we were the away team and be more defensive and counter
This is feeling like the Marco Silva season. Like creeping death where we show glimpses of performances that suggest we are too good to go down followed by “unlucky losses”. Winning or losing on Tuesday won’t determine where we finish. Our remaining results will continue to be inconsistent for the remainder of the games and it will go to the wire.
At that point, if it were to happen, we would very likely be essentially 10 points clear with 9 games to play. That's why I say virtually, as it would take a crazy effort for not just the bottom three to chase us down, but Stoke, Cardiff and others as well.
Isn’t our record at Ashton Gate terrible in the last few years? Just checked and we’ve lost our last five there. Last time we beat Brizzle at Ashton Gate was 2016 in the cup and 2012 in the league
We had a 5-5 draw there, I guess about 2018 under Nigel Adkins with Fraizer Campbell up front and Abel Hernandez on as a late sub. That was a remarkable match, a proper rollercoaster.
Yeah, it was. The 4-4 draw with Swansea a couple years later was a great watch too despite the second half of that season.
You could use the following formula to predict when we’re safe, before mathematical possibilities: Safety = points > (games remaining * points per game of the team in 21st) At the moment that number is 41 (rounded up) so everyone from Swansea and above is most likely safe, despite it still being mathematically possible. If you add a bit of a buffer and use our current points total instead, the magic number is currently 43 – so Preston and above. If the teams at the bottom remain as they have been so far, this is how many points above 21st a team would need to be to start saying they’re probably safe (with a minimum of three points required at all times): 10 left: 9 points 9 left: 8 points 8 left: 8 points 7 left: 7 points 6 left: 6 points 5 left: 5 points 4 left: 4 points 3 left: 3 points 2 left: 3 points 1 left: 3 points This formula will take in to account week by week changes, so the values can be recalculated and adjusted as the games pass. As Syd points out, if we beat Bristol and the bottom three lose, the difference between us and the bottom three will be greater than their average point returns. We’d then have 10 games left to pick up points ourselves. We’d be 9 points ahead and likely to earn 10 more points. You’d imagine 19 points in 10 games would be too large a swing for the bottom three. It’s more than half the points they’ve earned in 35 games.
Another way you could look at it is by addressing what Luton and the teams below them would need to overcome to earn safety. This is based on the points difference between them and safety and the expected points of the teams above them. That could be expressed as: Points needed = (points per game of the team in 21st * games remaining) + (points of team in 21st - own points) + 1 That number already stands at 18 points for Luton, 19 for Plymouth, and 20 for Derby. That’s at least 1.64 points per game for Luton. Only the current top four have bettered that points return so far. You could argue that if we just keep doing what we’re doing, we’re probably safe already.
I’ve been fairly confident all season that we’d stay up - but I admit my confidence declined slightly after the poor results and performances against Cardiff and Stoke. I don’t think that last nights result secures our safety but I do think it’s an indicator that we’re going to have enough about us to get the results we need. It was a big game last night and by and large the players performed well. If they didn’t overcome the pressure of last night I think I’d really have been starting to accept the players didn’t have the bottle for it. Next thing to chalk off is winning two games in a row. If we keep our form up we’ll sail clear - I just hope the squads mentality doesn’t become ‘we’ll be fine now’.
Norwich look a bit gash at the back, Oxford slow but quick at regrouping and organised, if we use a slow laboured build up they'll contain us
