Good Morning. It's Friday 28th February, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road Ampadu surgery u-turn In a surprising u-turn, Leeds United have decided against surgery for Ethan Ampadu’s injured right knee, offering a glimmer of hope for his return before the end of the season. The Welsh international, a key figure both in defence and midfield for the Whites, was absent from Monday's crucial top-of-the-table victory against the Blades. In his post match presser, Daniel Farke insinuated that his skipper would undergo cartilage surgery over the next couple of days. However, the club have now revealed a shift in approach, confirming they will pursue a conservative treatment plan, aiming for a quicker recovery. Speaking to BBC Radio Leeds, Farke explained the rationale behind the decision: "The cartilage issue is complicated. Surgery would have meant him being out for the season, so we've decided to go the conservative route." Since arriving from Chelsea, Ampadu has become a linchpin in Farke’s side. His versatility and leadership are invaluable in Leeds quest for automatic promotion. The prospect of losing him for the remainder of the campaign would have been a major blow. Farke further elaborated on the anticipated timeline, offering optimism to Leeds fans: "The initial decision is for him not to undergo surgery, so a conservative approach has been adopted. It's hoped he could return in four to six weeks." A return within this timeframe would see Ampadu available for a crucial part of the Championship run-in! This isn’t Ampadu’s first injury setback this season. Earlier in the campaign, a left knee injury (sustained against Coventry City in September) sidelined him for 12 games. This latest knee issue means he is almost certain to miss Wales' upcoming World Cup qualifiers against Kazakhstan and North Macedonia in March. Whatever happens, he must not be allowed to participate! please log in to view this image The walking wounded Leeds decision to 'patch up' Ethan Ampadu and send him back out to war towards the end of the season will raise eyebrows among Whites fans up and down the Country. We all recognise the importance the skipper brings to the side, but if he's not fully fit, should he be playing? It was at this very point last season that Leeds promotion bid buckled under the pressure. The Welsh continent had just returned from International duty, after a gruelling 120 minute battle against Poland. The physical toll on James, Ampadu, Roberts and Rodon became starkly apparent. Roberts succumbed to injury during that game, and Rodon, we later learned, sustained a back injury that plagued him for the remainder of the season. His commitment to the cause was admirable, but relying on pain-killing injections just to get through the last eleven match. Looking back, it’s clear his movement was restricted, and while it’s impossible to definitively say it derailed the promotion campaign, it certainly didn’t help. Four wins from those eleven games speak volumes. Fast forward to Monday night and the euphoria of victory at Bramall Lane. Amidst the celebrations, Dan James was being interviewed by Sky Sports with strapping and ice packs adorning his ankle. The Welsh International described it as 'purely precautionary' stating 'every pitch is like sand at the moment'. Do we assume he's not 100% fit, and as such should be rested, in favour of Ramazani or Gnonto? Should James be allowed to attend World Cup qualifiers against Kazakhstan and North Macedonia in three weeks time? please log in to view this image
I hate the international break. Not just because it seemed to derail us, but it pauses any momentum a team is building, and we're really in that space, buzzing from coming back v near rivals. Grrr.
I know Ristac has been keeping a count on how many wins and draws he thinks we need to get automatic promotion with the games we have remaining. With yet another sleepless night, and LeedsofLondon giving me something to research, I decided to have a look at what had happened with teams at this stage of the season achieving automatic promotion. This is not to dispute what Ristac is saying, its just me trying to fill in some time, and thus of course I always turn to data and stats . Can only go back 29 seasons, as unfortunately obtaining data on league points after 34 games prior to that season, requires way to much effort even for me . Maybe there is a data site out there that has that, but I will stick to my usual go to sites, plus my own data. So at this stage of the season (34 games played), out of the 58 teams that were in the automatic promotion places, 45 of them finished in the top 2 spots of the Championship. In 2007/08 and 2014/15, neither of the teams in automatic promotions places after 34 games, were promoted automatically. Bristol City and Watford who were on 61 and 60 points respectively, were caught by WBA and Stoke, who were 5 and 1 points behind Bristol City after 34 games. In the 2014/15 season, Derby were top on 65 points, with Middlesborough 2nd on 63 points. However Bournemouth and Watford both ended up in the automatic promotions spots, Bournemouth having been 5 points and Watford 3 points behind Derby after 34 games. 21 of the 29 clubs that have been top of the Championship after 34 games, have been promoted as Champions. Of the other 8 teams, 4 of them were promoted as runners up, 1 has gone up via the play offs, and 3 failed to gain promotion. 17 of the clubs in 2nd place after 34 games, have been promoted as runners up, with 3 promoted as Champions, and a further 3 promoted via the play offs, with the remaining 6 failing to gain promotion. Bristol City failed to go up in 2007/08 when they were on 61 points, 2 points ahead of Stoke and 5 points ahead of WBA, who both claimed the top two spots after 46 games. Both Derby (2014/15) and Reading (2008/09), were top of the Championship after 34 games, with 65 points. Average number of points for the team in 1st place after 34 games is 70. 14 clubs have been top with more than 70 after 34 games, and all have gone on to be promoted as Champions. Only 3 clubs in 2nd place after 34 games have had 70 or more points and all 3 clubs have gone on to achieve automatic promotion. In 2001/02 WBA were 7 points behind 2nd place Wolves and in 2006/07 Sunderland were 9 points behind 2nd placed Derby and both achieved automatic promotion. The next highest point gap between the team in 2nd place after 34 games and the team achieving automatic promotion was in the 2007/08 season, when WBA were 4 points behind Watford. The average points total collected by clubs gaining automatic promotion from the final 12 games of the season is, 25 for the Champions, and 23 for the runners up. 8 clubs have managed to gain 30 or more points from the last 12 games and be promoted as Champions, whilst WBA achieved 29 points from their final 12 games in 2001/02 to finish as runners up. Only 4 clubs who have gone up as champions have gained less than 20 points from their final 12 league games, these being Leicester (2023/24) with 19 points, Fulham (2021/22) with 17 points, Charlton (1999/2000) and Cardiff (2012/13) both gaining 16 points. Watford have the distinction of blowing automatic promotion, gaining just 10 points out of 36 in 2007/08, followed by Reading (2008/09) and Derby (2014/15) who both gained 12 points. Middlesborough have the highest total of points gained from the last 12 games, that failed to achieve automatic promotion despite being in a promotion spot after 34 games, when in 2014/15 season they gained 22 out of 36 points. Both Derby and Middlesborough, were pipped to the automatic promotion places that season, by Bournemouth and Watford, who gained 30 and 27 points respectively. Teams in Automatic Promotions places after 34 games. Green = promoted as Champions, Purple = Promoted as Runner Up, Orange = Promoted via Play Offs Points gained by teams finishing in automatic promotion place from last 12 games of the season
Weren't we top two in the Championship after 35/36 games during Bielsa's first season in charge, only for Sheffield Utd to overtake us?
Yes we were, but I was basing the stats for the previous seasons at the stage of 34 games played, so that it is comparative to the present situation. Sheffield United were in front of us after 34 games in 2018/19
yeh but the football’s boring, his subs are rubbish and predictable and he doesn’t have a plan B. Imagine how many points and goals we’d have with a decent manager. like cousin Jesse.
Who’s to say, different squads/spend… but Farke’s PL record doesn’t make great reading. No-one liked the football but we were competitive in games under marsh. His mistake in my view was not recognising the importance of a reliable keeper and pacy defenders In the PL. Having forwards who could occasionally find the target would have been helpful too. Would Farke have kept us up and then addressed those issues in the first summer? Who knows. He’s retained some of the culprits albeit for a lower level. All subjective. What’s important is that he’s done a great job, so far this year.
Personally, I think his football is the “closest” you can get to Bielsa (you can never get a direct replacement for him) in that it relies on wingers and the full backs getting forward to add an additional attacking threat. Jesse didn’t like to use width and play narrow. Why Orta thought him the best option I guess we’ll never know.
You might be right that Jesse was a great coach though I saw little evidence of that. The only slack I can cut him was his football style, as per my reply to Eire, was the polar opposite to Bielsa who preferred width and overloads from his fullbacks. All about opinions of course and mine is Farke is a massive upgrade on Jesse.
Don't think i've ever said Jesse was a great coach. To be honest, I don't think anyone on here unless they've done the job at a high level themselves would know what a great coach looked like. In terms of chances created for and against we were a midtable side under Marsh. But we didn't take chances and we gift wrapped them to the opposition. It was part quality of player in the attacking third but particularly lack of quality in the defensive positions that let him down. In one sense we were unlucky, we dominated plenty of games and lost them. But he was part of the recruitment team. My view is he failed with defensive recruitment rather than anything fundamentally wrong with team performance. Just my opinion. Respect that others see it differently. He also got a harsher rap than deserved though in my view because he followed a fan's icon, he was American and the football style was divisive (BTW I actually know quite a few fans of other clubs who enjoyed watching us play, because they found the games end to end and exciting. Either way, it certainly wasn't easy on the eye from a purist perspective). I was happy with Farke's appointment and whilst last year was a disappointment, he's done really well this year and we're comfortably the best side in the league. However, he also holds the record for most consecutive losses in the PL and the two seasons with Norwich led to a relegation and then a sacking en route to another relegation. Mitigating circumstances of course, but comparing Marsh and Farke's records is apples to oranges. Anyway, great to talk cousin Jesse again with you. Time to move on!
Just sit back and enjoy the rest of the ride we are going up If that's 1st or 2nd doesn't matter one bit both the same prize.
