If I bet on a horse at odds of 50/1 I know the chances and the risk I am taking, and even more so if it's going to carry the handicapper's tax.
and chalk it up to experience. Oh dear. I'll be posting my Pertemps Final analysis tomorrow and they key number there will be 131
Ultima Katate Dori 10/1 e/w NRNB Lads and Coral four places, 8/1 bet365, sky, PP and betfair five places
Chianti Classico was a bit of a stat buster last season in terms of his general chasing experience (the Ultima was only his 4th chase) - but he was rated 143 so met that stat. I always think you want a battle-hardened horse for this one rather than an unexposed sort hence I'd crossed off Katate Dori (runs off 137) but he could well be in the same mould as CC last year. He was very impressive at Kempton but Hyland has a 12lb pull with him.
Oddy , well done on your efforts to discuss ante-post prospects for Cheltenham. However, I feel that , year on year, ante-post prices have become progressively more and more of a joke, especially with entries’ multiple options and bookies’ ridiculous prices. The only bet I should consider is July Flower at 6/1 EW for the Mares’ Hurdle. I believe that both Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead will head for the Champion Hurdle and, if so, I should expect July Flower to challenge for favouritism on the day. I also think she’ll have the beating of Jade de Grugy. Either way, I think her trainer has set her aside for the race, and she won her only race this season very easily after a good effort in last years French Champion Hurdle.
I do agree Tam - I enjoy the discussion more than the betting angle to be honest. I’ve only had 3 ante post bets this time around - two speculative e/w bets to small stakes on 2 horse in the supreme but both have been scratched plus a very tasty 9/2 bet on Constitution Hill for the Champion Hurdle after he was scratched from the fighting fifth. I’m starting to study the handicaps in detail now but will only bet on the day of the race.
You’ve come far, Jeremiah, very far Love that film! Not quite as much as Redford’s Three Days of The Condor, though.
NR. County Ethical Diamond 11/1 e/w NRNB Lads and Coral four places, 10/1 NRNB bet365, WH, PP and betfair five places
