After the first so many games, people kept saying we hadn't played anyone of note and the next ten games will be the test to show how good we really are. Well... ... Completed it, mate
This is the third time in Liverpool history that Liverpool are unbeaten away before Christmas. Slot is doing a good job.
Quick update, the blocks got mixed up a bit so everton move to a later block Block Performance: worst block so far. Red card impact v fulham and being tired v newcastle away. Historical Performance Points Trend Can see the impact of the two draws. We are now just the front runners, rather than headed for some history Performance v Bottom half teams - THIS NEEDS UPDATING ON HALF WAY AS SOME TEAMS ARE GOING TO BE TOP HALF AND SOME NOT Games played 8 Goals scored 15 Goal conceded 6 Games won 6 Games drawn 1 Games lost 1 Win ratio 75% Draw ratio 12% Loss ratio 13% Goals per game 1.88 Goals conceded per game 0.75 Points per game 2.38 Performance V Top Half Sides Games played 8 Goals scored 22 Goal conceded 10 Games won 6 Games drawn 2 Games lost 0 Win ratio 75% Draw ratio 25% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.75 Goals conceded per game 1.3 Points per game 2.50 Super League Scum Table: We are now half way on the scum mini table. city in 5th is unheard of since they started cheating. Super league 6 table I find the above most interesting. Chelsea are bullying the non top 6 sides. look a tthe goals scored. This teis into our top half v bottom half tbale Where does this season Compare with 2019/20 Goals scored still above 2019/20 but the goals conceded are now flying in so that is showing. Konate injury coinciding with this is interesting The next 4 games. Leicester H West Ham A Man Utd H Notts Forest A 10/12 minimum needed imo. Bizarrely forest are the hardest game there Then these: Brentford A Ipswich H Bournemouth A Everton A Those 8 will be bringing us up the the big run in. You could have a cup final then etc. 24 more points up for grabs there and we would be on 24 games played so these two blocks are the ones to put the foot down in. Who knows where we will end up but I do know we've a nice little break coming after west ham with a week to utd and another week to the FA cup 3rd round so we can actually almost winter break a couple of players and really manage them aroeund the league cup. These league games must be the priority
for the purpose of my usual stats i am only going to move Forest into the top half clubs at this point. I don't think fulham or bournemouth's numbers really justify moving both to top half just yet. theres a few big teams down there. My Bottom half 20. Southampton 19. Ipswich 18. Leicester (worst, most negative nasty side i've seen in the first half of season) 17. Wolves 16. Palace 15. Everton 14. West Ham 13. Brentford 12. Fulham 11. Bournemouth THe final 3 of these could all do well in the seocnd half of season. My top half 10. Man utd - very generous 9. spurs. very generous 8. brighton - slumping 7. Villa 6. Man city (hilarious) 5. Newcastle 4. Forest 3. Chelsea (ahead of schedule they say, i say cheated) 2. Arsenal. 1. LFC
Thought this was interesting given all the talk about how we had an easy start to the season etc average position of the first 9 games of our season compared to the next 9 are almost identical. So the Everton in 16th still to play Lfc fixtures 19 away 12 home 14 away 2nd home 6th home 17 away 15 away 4th home 3rd away Av 10.2 10th home 9th home 20th away 5th home 7th away 8th home 11th away 18th home 13th away 10.1 16th away to be confirmed
we are now down to 2.2 on PPG over 5 game average. over 10 games its about 2.4 46 + 19x2.2 = 87 points. 88 if you are generous. I think that wins the title but just about. I think the absolute top arsenal gets is about 82 to 85. nobody else is topping 80 IMO.
Here we are past half way and the blocks don't lie Block Performance: 2 draws to round out the block drops us to top 4 form only, we only really have demonstrated title winning form in 2 blocks so that tells yuo where the league is at. Historical Performance Interesting january trend over the past 5 years. block 5 hasn't been good for many years. Points Trend Can see the impact of the draws. We are now under 90 point line We are VERY catchable now. Performance v Bottom half teams (this looks better now with fulham & brentford assumed bottom half, will be adjusted later if needed) Games played 9 Goals scored 23 Goal conceded 6 Games won 8 Games drawn 1 Games lost 0 Win ratio 89% Draw ratio 11% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.56 Goals conceded per game 0.67 Points per game 2.78 Performance V Top Half Sides _forest added so this looks ok.) Games played 11 Goals scored 25 Goal conceded 14 Games won 6 Games drawn 4 Games lost 1 Win ratio 55% Draw ratio 36% Loss ratio 9% Goals per game 2.27 Goals conceded per game 1.3 Points per game 2.00 Goals conceded in the top half games are increasing. utd and spurs are included here. we lost 8 goals in 3 games Super League Scum Table: We are now half way on the scum mini table. city in 5th is unheard of since they started cheating. Super league 6 table We seem to now have more games agaisnt the bottom half left which should be encouraging. Where does this season Compare with 2019/20 goal against are higher consistently than 2019/20, goals for are higher consistently. where are the clean sheets gone? The next 4 games. Brentford A Ipswich H Bournemouth A Everton A 12/12 would put us on 59 points after 24 games and 2ppg from there will put us into mid 80s. I don't think we can do more than mid 80s now so theres a fair chance of being caught IF someone can put a run together This could well be as low as leicesters title winning points tbh. if we fail to tak those 12 points you cannot have a lot of confidence even though brentford and bouremouth as very very tough games. either be champions or be chumps. champions would win those 4.
Block Performance: 1 draws to round out the block dropped us back into range but we have managed to displace the needed title winning form in this block, the next one could see the lead wiped out. Historical Performance block 6 as good as it has been at any time. Points Trend 10 points brings us back to just tracking to 90 Performance v Bottom half teams Games played 14 Goals scored 34 Goal conceded 9 Games won 12 Games drawn 2 Games lost 0 Win ratio 86% Draw ratio 14% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.43 Goals conceded per game 0.64 Points per game 2.71 everton put a ding in this record. there are only 6 of these games left. (assume 16 points here) Performance V Top Half Sides _forest added so this looks ok.) Games played 11 Goals scored 25 Goal conceded 14 Games won 6 Games drawn 4 Games lost 1 Win ratio 55% Draw ratio 36% Loss ratio 9% Goals per game 2.27 Goals conceded per game 1.3 Points per game 2.00 There are 7 of these games left. 2ppg = 14 points out of 21. That says 30 points up for grabs based only on form = 90 points. goal conceded is a big concern. we are not solid Super League Scum Table: Super league 6 table The entiner gap is perofrmance against non top 6 teams. Where does this season Compare with 2019/20 trent of conceding goals and losing points continues. The next 4 games. Wolves H (won) Aston Villa (Away) Man City (Away) Newcastle (Home) 8 out of 12 here would actually be a really good result. 10 out of 12 would be title winning imo. This is bump one in a tough run in. There are 2 bumps in the road left IMO we have 7 points total to spend getting over those 6 games. we HAVE to win the other games but this is it now. Wolves Aston Villa Man City Newcastle Southampton Everton Fulham West Ham Leicester Spurs Chelsea Arsenal Brighton Crystal Palace
Only Mourinho has got more points than slot in their first 25 prem games with 64 compared to 60. Pretty crazy. however what’s even more mental is seeing stats of our last 6/7 seasons and how many points we had at this stage and seeing that the year we won the title we had 73 points out of possible 75. 24 wins 1 draw. Incredible season.
here is another table that I don't post but it shows the gap between first and second when the run in starts. it would normally come after this block we are in. Season 1st 2nd 2023/24 64 64 2022/23 69 61 2021/22 69 66 2020/21 65 54 2019/20 79 57 2018/19 69 68 2017/18 75 57 2016/17 69 59 2015/16 57 54 2014/15 63 58 2013/14 63 59 2012/13 71 59 2011/12 67 66 2010/11 60 57 2009/10 61 60 2008/09 65 58 we are on 60 points after 25 so can reach 69. the only times teams have this 70+ have been in utterly dominant season 22/23 arsenal ended up 2nd In short if we take 5 from 9 now we would still be in a similr position to most sides at the top of the tbale after 28 games. in the last 10 years 3 times the team in the lead after 28 games have finished second. last year with zero gap and city 1 behind arsenal ended 2nd. in 2022/23 arsenal ended up second. 2018/19 LFC finish second having led city by 1 point. the biggest gap anyone has surrendered is 8 points however city did have a game in hand to play.
a quick snap shot view LFC beat Man city at home 2-0: record was 11-1-1 (draw to arsenal and loss to forest) LFc position after beating city away 2-0 the gap was 9 points after 13 games. (9 real points as all played 13) the gap is now 11 having played 1 more (real gap is 8 in my mind) In another 13/14 games LFC have actually drawn 6 games but arsenal have drawn 4 and lost 1 so have failed to really apply pressure in the middle third of the season Our record is played 14, won 8 drawn 6 lost 0. Not bad but this is actually just decent top 4 form rather than title winning form, as the first 13 games were (or first third of season). We drew to: Newcastle (kelleher howler, were second best in the game but fought hard) Fulham (robertson red card brain fart, again we fought hard) Man utd (they got physical and we were weak , plus trent was awful, we should have won this but for refusal to take trent off. Forest (gave them one chance then huffed and puffed and got a break. A battle) Everton (played bad, gave them a goal, got the lead and then couldn't see it out for 2mins at the end. a bit unlucky but we were bad) villa (again played slowly and looked tired tbh, got a lead and again couldn't hold it.) We have got more anx more tired as the sason has gone on. we've kept most of our key players fit but they are pretty much out on their feet so it kind of shows when the team tries to sit on a lead. The big positive is the fight and just refusing to lose even if we have now 4 draws from winning positions that would put us on course for a stellar season. Newcastle tomorrow finishes the block off, the next block of 4 are very winnable games and 3 are at home. If I'm looking back now i have to say that a fantastic start in the first third is what won the league for us alongside a desire that means we are very hard to beat. And yes even if we win 6 and draw 5 (for example) in the final third of the season I don't see that arsenal team catching up now. Its up to them to show more form over the last 12 games than they have over the middle 13. (8-4-1) If they do that again the max they can get is 79. for us to get 80 points requires 16 points. 6 wins and 5 draws is 85.
64 Liverpool 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 Arsenal 52 51 50 49 48 47 Forest 46 45 44 Man City, Newcastle 43 Ballmouth, Chelsea 42 Villa 41 40 Brighton 39 Fulham 38 37 Brentford 36 35 34 33 Spurs, Palace 32 31 Everton 30 Man Utd, West Ham 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Wolves 21 20 19 18 17 Ipswich, Leicester 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 Saints
