Final Declarations and current odds are: Sizing Europe - 7/4 Tataniano - 7/2 Wishfull Thinking - 5/1 Kauto Stone - 7/1 Gauvain - 14/1 I'msingingtheblues - 25/1 Cornas - 25/1 Dan Breen - 40/1 Fix The Rib - 66/1 I agree that it is very interesting that Nicholls has declared Kauto Stone. Would have been even more interesting if Ruby was riding. Now that would have thrown a proper spanner in the works. You would have to think, therefore, that Tataniano remains his primary hope.
Ground eased considerably since Monday - now Good, G/Soft in places with light rain forecast this evening and heavy rain Saturday morning. SOunds to me like that could ruin Tataniano's chances. What price a late withdrawal and Ruby hops onto Kauto Stone?
My Money is already on Kauto Stone! Got him @ 10's e/w. I looked at the forecast on sunday for this week and it looked miserable so I got on him! and it doensnt look like getting better! Im goin on saturday too so will be having some more of him too. I think this horse will be up there with his brother! As I said a 2nd Kauto win in 2weeks maybe on the card!
I think the pace may be a little on the quick side for Kauto Stone, All his form is well over 2 miles and Im not sure he is a two miler more of a 2m 4/6 horse. But like Oddy says who knows? I thought Kauto Stone was PN's safety blanket if the ground softened up but hes been declared so PN's as obviously seen something in him or maybe he still is? He jumped well I thought on his first appearance across the channel and Paul Carberry immediately said hes definetly a Grade 1 horse. It makes things very interesting... Sizing Europe anywhere near his best should win this, But Im expecting a big run from Tataniano...
Kauto Stone will only run if there is considerable rain. He has been declared as a precaution because the forecast for the weekend is uncertain. He will run if it rains enough to change the ground but won't if it doesn't. Edit: "Tataniano wouldn't want it soft, but if the rain comes and it does come up soft, I'd look stupid if I hadn't left Kauto Stone in. I'll be keeping an eye on the weather to see what happens." Sounds a bit like either or rather than both.
Tataniano out of the Tingle Creek and out for the season. http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/tataniano-out-of-tingle-creek-through-injury/956398/
Have to say I was suprised by how impressive Sizing Europe was today, as he's usually only at his best on spring ground at Cheltenham, that makes me wonder how strong the form was, as we've seen Big Zeb and Golden Silver dish out beatings to SE before in Ireland, early on in the season. Lets be fair it was a pretty poor renewal, with Finians Ranbow and Tataniano withdrawing, and Wishful Thinking may aswell have withdrawn if they are going to employ those suicidal tactics. You would think a jockey of RHs experience would be a good judge of pace, but clearly not. So what did SE beat, Kauto Stone? Whilst Kauto Stone may be talented, he was still yet to prove his class at G1 level in the UK, so I'm not convinced SEs performance was that good, despite the fact he was visually impressive. Either way he will still be the one to beat come Cheltenham, if he can reproduce last years effort, though I'd love to see Big Zeb regain the crown
The withdrawals of Tataniano and Finians Rainbow did make the task far easier for Sizing Europe but he still had to go out and do the business and he delivered masterfully, Spring heeled and cantering to a win. I like Kauto Stone, Remember he is only 5 years old and he made a few blunders which gave him no chance but I still think there are Grade Ones to be won with him all his form from France is over 2 miles anyway. Im not sure what the thinking with Wishfull Thinking was, It always worrys Me when a horse isn't finishing its races off thats always a sign of a problem, Faded tamely in both the Tingle and Paddy Power...
I was impressed by Kauto Stone as well, I thought that he was a stayer in the making and the way he challenged before getting outpaced was very interesting for the future. I hope they give him time to get over the race and we see him once more before a tilt at the Ryanair. Wishfull Thinking took hold too much and ruined his chances early, I like the way he jumps but he is becoming more disappointing with each run. I still think he has plenty of races in him, but I do wonder if they will give him a break now.
Wishfull Thinking definitely has something wrong. He has stopped very quickly in both the Paddy Power and yesterday, and I would be surprised if nothing came to light. Sizing Europe was impressive, winning as he should have done, and clearly over his Down Royal exertions. Also though Kauto Stone ran a very pleasing race. He might not be a reincarnation of his brother but there must surely be a few big prizes in him. If nothing else, he looks just the type to mop up a few Irish Grade 1s on soft ground. I thought he could have been a lot closer if he had jumped the 2nd last fluently but he seems sure to be seen to better effect over further.
Undoubtedly the withdrawals of Mr Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow and my old fave, Tataniano, greatly diminished the contest but take nothing away from Sizing Europe who I thought put up a seriously decent performance. Travelled really well and when old boy Lynch pressed the button he quickened in the way that only really good horses can. On that performance Sizing Europe is going to be very tough to beat for the rest of the campaign, methinks. Re Kauto Stone to my eye he has the look of a horse without a proper trip about him. What they do with him next is the key, I say key, question. Is he a 2 miler, 2 and a half miler, or 3 miler?!?
wishfull thinking was entitled to stop quickly as he went of way to fast.that long stretch between the 2nd and 3rd saw him set a pace that was unsustainable and by halfway he had gone almost 6 seconds quicker than lancetto did in the henryviii chase and was a spent force after the 10th. i got to agree with KS that i dont think it was a great renewal.sizing europe was the only 2 mile grade 1 winner in the field and the placings were a fight between either 2 mile top h'cappers or 2m4f+ better class types,with the staying types doing better thanks to the fierce pace set. from a rating point of view i doubt he as ran near his chelteham marks with 152 and 153 horses not far behind in 3rd and 4th he's probably ran into the high 160's the time also was just 0.4 secs faster than the novice chase but in the tingle creek the whole field broke even with only 2 lengths covering them all and sizing europe was only 1 length behind wishfull thinking at the first. in the henry viii chase lancetto got away well but al ferof was around 8 lengths behind when the tape went up and sizing europe took 3m48.4 from first fence to finish. al ferof took 3m47.1 secs for the same first fence to finish it would be hard to argue that both al ferof and for non stop were that good,sizing europes time was due to the pace collapsing as al ferof started to travel faster than sizing europe from the 10th fence to the line .thanks to wishfull thinkings efforts, from the last to the finishing line sizing europe took 17.1 secs where al ferof done it in 14.7. this is now the 2nd non novice grade 1 chase of the uk jumps season that as featured such a fierce early pace(the other being the betfair) that the runners have simply finished so slow down in the final home straight running to fast early and finishing slow isnt the ideal way for a horse to distribute its energy and it may take a longer amount of time than normal for horses to recover from such exertions!!!
I think the others knew WT was going off way too fast and pretty much ignored him, setting their own sensible pace behind. Kauto Stone was the only one who could go with Sizing Europe in the 2nd half of the race but he lacked pure speed when SE quickened at the business end. I think the time comparison is interesting but no more than that. Al Ferof was hard ridden to hold his lead whereas Sizing Europe did it very, very easily.
they didnt chase wishfull thinking it but it did encourage them to go pretty fast also.if you count out wishful thinking and assume fix the rib/sizing europe were the front runners,he too was going faster than lancetto was who led the novices!
I wouldn't disagree with Shergs: I'd quite like to see Big Zeb regain his crown too a la Moscow Flyer! I think he's a better 2 miler than Sizing Europe but SE probably operates about half a stone better round Cheltenham than anywhere else so it's a hell of a task to do so! Kauto Stone may fall between 2 stools, not quick enough for 2 miles, can't stay 3 miles. A Ryanair horse by look of things.
Big Zeb is for me the best all round 2 mile chaser around at the moment, SE may be the better horse on good ground at Cheltenham, but elsewhere Big Zeb has always had his measure. I'd still fancy Big Zeb to get his crown back if the ground had soft in the description
You guys know more about this stuff than me. The fact that Sizing Europe looked good as he waltzed away is a tricky one. GPs wonder write up shows that the horse couldn't have had too much in the tank, if his time from the last fence was 2.4 seconds slower than the Novice winner. It's a deceiving stat. If the Novice winner had contested the Tingle Creek, he probably would have been thumped by SZ. Even at the 2 miles, I think the nature of the race played into the hands of a more staying type. SZ has a great record at 2 miles, but I think he's probably better over more ground now.
Chippy I might be wrong, (it has happened in the past so I know its possible), my slight concern for Kauto Stone is he looks to have a soft ground action and therefore may not perform at his optimium on festival ground. Of course this is yet to be proven but his best form is pretty much only on soft. Not sure if the ground on Saturday helped him, so that was an even better performance if I'm right.
