Evening all One I really like the look of tomorrow is ALFIE SHERRIN in the 12.35 at Aintree. He is currently a stand out 25-1 shot with Boylesports and to be honest I will be a little bit disappointed if he doesn't run at least a place. The big field allows an E.W bet at I still feel there is a big race in this fella. He was a promising sort when trained by Paul Nicholls winning 3 of his 5 starts for the Champion trainer including an impressive victory in a class 2 handicap at Newbury. As a result of this victory Alife Sherrin was sent off the 11/4 fav for the Pertemps final at the festival and although he could only finish midfield I still thought his run was full of promise considering how lightly raced he was at the time. After this the selection was sold to JP McManus and moved to the Jonjo O'Neill stable when Harry Findlay decided to spit the dummy. He was over fences last season winning 1 novice chase and to be fair disappointing in the rest of his races. However he didn't look a natural over the larger obstacles and his run in the Midlands National which is over further than 4m is easily forgiven. He was also travelling well at Warwick over 3m2f and I feel he didn't stay that day either. Tomorrow he is back over hurdles and runs over 2m4f a trip that may well suit. He runs from a 3lbs lower mark than he did in the Pertempts final and that makes things interesting as I certainly thought he was competitive enough that day and still felt he could win races from 144. So tomorrow he is off 141 with Alan Berry (not my fav of jockeys) taking off another 3lbs.
I really like the look of 7.20 Wolves Greensward 7/1 as I think all signs point to a very big run. Greensward is a new recruit to the Mike Murphy stable, one of my favourite yards, from the Brian Meehan stable. Greensward is a relatively unexposed 5 year old with 18 starts to date who clearly showed he is still improving with 2 wins from his last 3 starts after a 4 month break since September. Trainer Mike Murphy owns him and from my memory he is a trainer who has an excellent record with finding immediate improvement from new recruits and often gets them to win on their first start for the stable. Greensward tackles the 7f trip at Wolverhampton in a Class 3 and won impressively on his only start at the track which was also over C+D. Greensward's stats on the AW in his career are very impressive with 2 wins from 2 starts so he is clearly unexposed on a surface he seems to thrive on. Jimmy Fortune is a very eye catching jockey booking as it represents his first ride for the Murphy yard and I think its quite significant that Murphy turns to the man who rode the horse on his latest outing (although it was only a 5th place finish and Fortunes only ride on him). Greensward races here off a mark of 91 and I think this is a very attainable mark considering he won off only a 4lb lower mark at Chester September in a Class 3 event and off an impressive victory in a Class 4 event at Kempton off a 6lb lower mark the same month. Should add that for the victory at Kempton 2 starts back Greensward was ridden by a first time rider in the shape of Jade Muggeridge. Although it was a fantastic ride which was timed excellently and I am not one second discounting the great achievement, when analysing this race for future form she obviously and understandably hadn't yet attained the ability to use the whip in a race situation. Thus, I believe the 1.75L victory could perhaps have been a much larger margin if under the hands of a professional jockey. Murphy had Greensward entered into an AW Listed contest recently that he didn't get into which indicates to me that Murphy holds him in high regard and I'll be having quite a decent sized be on him.
Evening all, My selections tomorrow; 2.10 Aintree- Niche Market- Will be sharper for his last run, has plenty of experience and jumped with passion over these fences when 5th in last years national. Only thing that let him down that day was stamina went very flat in the last few furlons . Jumps very well and as this is shorter he should have no problem staying this distance and this will be Nicholls 2nd step to the big race itself! And winning this will be avery good step indeed! Has Harry Skelton on board again. So I reckon another good Nicholls Day is on the cards! 3.05 Sandown- Kauto Stone Tipped and back him last weekend @ 10's, Which has now disappeard way in to the distance! everyone said he wouldnt run and he was just put in as a back up to Tataniano but after looking at the forecast and just so happend about his injury he has been declared! He is a very unexposed runner, and came over from france with a huge reputation and an even bigger hype about him. And he most certainly didnt disappoint when winning at Down Royal. He is dropping down in distance and moving up in class! Which doesnt look great for him. But nicholls has a tremendous record in this race and not to mention his half brother who has won this twice (the first time at the same age.) He is up against a very good 2m queen mother winner in sizing europe who will give him a very good run for his money and will prbably win if he is in the same form but just cant be having him he ran a blinder in the QM but his latest run he looked a bit flat footed and not the same horse he would have probably needed that run but he doesnt get good till after the new year. but we just dont know how good Kauto Stone really is and a win tomorrow will put him well on the way to follow in his brothers footsteps and with Ruby on board I cant see why not it wont happen. 3.20 Aintree- Fine Parchment- Hugely over priced imo, ran a decent race in the PP GC, will improve after that, and although top weight appeals to run a good race. 3.40 Sandown- Madison Du Berlais- Although he looks abit of a shadow of his former self when winning the henessy in 2008, and has had a couple of tough years! But still I reckon he has the class to put in a big effort. He finished behind Meanus Dandy at Wincanton but is much better treated here and could finally end his unlucky run with the major threat Any Currency having his 1st run of the season.
4 selections from me today 2.10 aintree always waining 2.30 Sandown mister no 3.05 Sandown gauvain 3.40 Sandown deep purple
1.05 Aintree SILCIUM 8/1 (BOG) A wide open Novice's handicap hurdle with several unexposed horses in the line up, none more so than Silcium who is making his first appearance for Tim Vaughan having been purchased from Nicky Henderson's stable for £35,000. He has only made it to the track twice so far finishing 2nd at Fakenham (4/6 fav) and 3rd at Kempton (4/9) fav. He is clearly thought to be capable of better and I feel £35,000 would be a bit much for a horse not thought to be capable of winning a handicap off a mark of 115. I feel he could easily be much better than he has shown so far and I don't mind taking a chance at around the 8/1 mark. 2.10 Aintree MAD MAX 25/1 E.W (BOG) A good renewal of the Beecher Chase and it will be interesting to see how they all do over the National fences for the first time this season. I would usually look at something with good experience in an event like this and I was close to putting up Hello Bud but have decided to have a speculative put on Mad Max who is currently priced up at 25/1. This will be no easy task at all off top weight but he is a classy horse on his day and current connections will get a good idea if they have a national horse tomorrow (main target). He has stamina to prove and needs to settle better than he has done in the past if he has any chance of getting home. However he is a giant horse and I can see him doing very well over these fences tomorrow. I do feel he is slightly overpriced considering how much ability he has and is worth a small E.W bet. 3.20 Aintree NOMECHEKI 16/1 E.W (BOG) Another rather speculative selection on the National course for the second time. I really enjoy watching Frankie Figg over these fences as he jumps them really well and seemed to enjoy every moment last season when winning this in impressive fashion from the re-opposing Nikola. However at 5/1 I am not sure he offers good value in such a competitive event. Therefore I will take a chance on Nomecheki who is certainly a capable horse on his day. The problem is he is hit and miss. However these fences could bring the best out of him and if reproducing the sort of form that seen him finish runner up to Tataniano at Chepstow and runner up to Anquetta at Sandown I would fancy him to go close. His stamina isn't assured but at the prices in first time cheekpieces I feel he is worth an E.W bet at 16-1 1.25 Sandown - CANTLOW 12/1 (BOG) I am going straight in for the win with Cantlow who may well be a bit overpriced at around the 12/1 mark. Although he has been well beaten in two starts so far this season he has travelled in to the race very strongly times before fading late on. Tomorrow he steps down to 2m6f and this will give a better idea of whether or not he is just not finding for pressure at the moment or if he has not been getting home. He has been dropped 4lbs to a mark of 135 and I will be disappointed if he isn't good enough to win this. 3.05 Sandown - KAUTO STONE 3/1 (BOG) I feel this has turned in to a bit of a disappointing renewal to be honest with Finians Rainbow being pulled out earlier in the week and also Tataniano picking up a injury was a shame. Sizing Europe is a horse I respect for sure as he has proved me wrong so many times and I expect him to run a big race tomorrow dropping back in trip. After all he is a fantastic horse and was sensational when winning the Champion Chase last season. However at 13/8 I am happy enough to take him on here with the unexposed Kauto Stone. A high class chaser in France this half brother to Kauto Star looked a top prospect on debut for Paul Nicholls when winning at Down Royal. He jumped well throughout and when he got in close he was very clever. He drops down to 2m tomorrow but the ground has softened and this will suit. I feel he is worth a chance at 3/1.
5, that's FIVE with a capital F, lay bets tomorrow. This could get ugly. http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html
Hello lads. Very keen on Linnel e.w. in the 3.25 at Liverpool,The Grand Sefton. Typical Arthur Moore type,not dicky dackying over hurdles after pointing.Has kept good company and acquitted himself reasonably well behind Ad Idem and Roi Du Mee,as well as a good effort behind the excellent (soon to be!) Flemenstar in a PTP. Tbh he was slightly disappointing at Down Royal LTO when beaten by a progressive sort under a 7lb claim but that was his first run back and he appeared to blow up.He has only had 5 runs under rules and is potentially very well handicapped on a line through his collateral form. The problem with his relative inexperience is obviously jumping ability.However,this course is a shadow of its former self and you can be sure the spruce will be loosely packed to avoid any more PR disasters.All in all everything is set for a big run. Carberry up top is a massive bonus....8/1 is a bigger bonus...decent e.w. punt for me. Will also be watching for any cash regarding Thomond Park in the 11.50 at Fairyhouse (if i'm up!). Another half brother to Kicking King,he ran very nicely on debut and is with a very shrewd operator. Looks like he is being brought along slowly but will be of interest in due course if not tomorrow. GL all having a go.
Funnily enough the 2 horses I backed ante-post for last season's Cheltenham Bumper, Keys and Knight Pass, are both out early doors today. Knight Pass impressed me on hurdles debut where he tanked along (as he did in his 2 bumper victories) and his jumping looked measured and assured. He had a far more experienced rival in Outrageous Request (rated 117) well held in 2nd and I think he will take all the beating today, Cinders And Ashes being the obvious Danger. Keys has moved from Roger Charlton to Nicky Henderson and will be fit as a butchers dog from a good season on the flat. I might be tempted into a nice barney rubble. I'm swerving Chepstow totally due to the heavy ground. Like RV I find Mad Max interesting but I have to say if he wins this off 153 it will probably put paid to a Grand National bid as he will surely be put up to 160ish. I think Neil Mulholland will want him to have a good sighter of the national fences and getting round will be the priority. In the Grand Sefton I'll be on last year's winner Frankie Figg who loves the fences, has had a pipe-opener and is now with the champion trainer. At Sandown Al Ferof should win and I may play the Exacta with Lidar (don't laugh Nass) who was impressive last time. Biggest bet of the day will be on Gibb River (NAP) in the 2.30 who looked top notch last season before finding it all a bit much in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. A mark of 139 looks workable here, especially with David Bass taking off 3. The Tingle Creek has cut up badly. I may have a small play on Kauto Stone as he really could be anything and I don't fancy Sizing Europe at all, but Cornas is a stone better round Sandown and will run a big race. Shame there are only 7 runners. Last fancy of the day is Kevin Ryan's Geroge Fernbeck in the Wetherby bumper. Well fancied on debut, he was caught out by a canny Timmy Murphy ride on Life Of Laughter who stole a couple of lengths coming into the straight. Geroge Fernbeck finished like a train but couldn't pin the winner back and I think Graham Lee will make much more use of him today. Best of luck everyone
Anyone who watched Get In! on ATR last night will be aware the Dickie Johnason went without supper last night to do 10st1lb on Safran De Cotte for Henry Daly in the Pertemps qualifier at Sandown. After a couple of miserable seasons, Henry Daly's stable seems to be back on song, and the lean years mean he now has some well handicapped horses. This looks like one of them, at working man's a price hopefully.
Dan just said the same to you on Fugees re Frankie Archers - fully agree with that one has well, had him in the weekend comp. Cracking chance
At work Oddy so cant get fugees, some cracking stuff today and willie has a hat full of winners at the house of Fairy
Good Afternoon all, took my time to get across to here from 606, but I made it in the end! My three for today are; 1.55 - For Non Stop e/w at 18/1 3.05 - Kauto Stone at 3/1 3.40 - Deep Purple e/w at 12/1 Good luck everyone, and heres hoping Gary Speed gets a fitting send-off at Elland Road today
Here's hoping Dan That Fairyhouse card tomorrow is amazing - a Grade 3 followed by 3 Grade 1s Could be a Gigginstown benefit but I'll be on Volar La Vedette to beat the boys again
Sandown: Leg 1: Knight Pass (1) Leg 2: Hildisvini (5) / Cantlow (6) / Safran De Cotte (19) Leg 3: Al Ferof (1) Leg 4: Via Gallilei (1) / Gibb River (2) / Ubi Ace (7) Leg 5: Sizing Europe (7) Leg 6: Any Currency (4) / Major Malarkey (6) 18 @ 80p £14.40 Aintree: Leg 1: Cinders and Ashes (1) Leg 2: Wyse Hill Teabags (3) / Palace Jester (4) Leg 3: Comeragh King (9) / High Hoylander (10) / Red Rocco (12) Leg 4: Beattie Green (1) / Sudden Light (8) Leg 5: Swing Bill (4) / Always Waining (5) / Abbeybraney (10) / Another Palm (13) Leg 6: Master Of The Hall (2) / Tamarinbleu (5) 96 @ 15p £14.40 Singles Bets: ANOTHER PALM 2.10 AINTREE (NAP) Jumped super when second in the Cork Grand National last time out. He should relish the test of these fences, and the trip should be ideal. He should go very well in an open heat. 10/1 William Hill
