While everyone thinks the draw was kind it actually didn't go very well. The reality is Newcastle will have to beat either Arsenal Tottenham or Liverpool over 2 legs and one of them in a final. Conclusion - Newcastle will go out in the semis.
Which other players did or didn't play in these games. This week there was Kelly longstaff willock and krafth in addition. Gordon played he didn't in the last game. If it was exactly the same sides and the only change was longstaff in or out that's the only way these stats would indicate what people are trying to indicate. The fixtures also need consideration.. they play different sides home and away. Conclusion.. the stat's aren't the full picture! He played well last night though plain and simple
The bookies will agree. Unless Southampton and Palace win Newcastle have very little chance. It's good to be getting closer, but the clubs still a long way off imo.
Interesting to see if another final will save Howe (if we made it). Obviously if he wins the thing he’s safe regardless off the league position but 8th and another final? Don’t think he’ll be safe at that point.
He’s the sort of guy who, if he won millions on the lottery would moan that he might spend it all on hookers, booze and drugs.
Quantitative risk assessment not really your forte is it. The only possible improvements in the draw from our point of view would have been: 1. If Liverpool and Arsenal had been drawn against each other. 2. If we had been drawn at home against either Southampton or Crystal Palace All the following would have been worse: 1. Drawing an away tie against any of the teams. 2. Drawing a home tie against Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs or Man Utd 3. Liverpool being drawn at home against Southampton Even if Liverpool had been drawn against Arsenal it would only reduce our chance of playing one of the 'big six' in the semi-finals from 100% to 67% and that disregards the fact that there is the small possibility that Southampton or Crystal Palace might win. As your assumption is that we will lose to any of the big clubs over two legs then the possibility of us drawing one of them in the quarter final was 50%. Instead we have Brentford at home but the draw didn't go very well.
The bookies don't agree, we're 3rd in the odds, not far behind Arsenal and Liverpool and ahead of Tottenham. Southampton put City out 2 years ago so there's a chance they may do the same to Liverpool....although Liverpool probably put more importance on it than City
113 games is a fairly solid pool of data from a statistical perspective, and represents Howe's full tenure at Newcastle, so not sure how much more of a full picture you want. Yes, other players etc changed in teams, but you can only put a subjective assessment of their performance/contribution into any model you choose to create; the subjectivity thereby rendering it useless from an analytical point of view. The figures included in my post are actual facts which are quantifiable and therefore capable of analysis. So, ultimately your point is in fact, pointless.
If only longstaff was changed I'd agree but there's too many other variables not factored in and that's very deliberate.
You are aware we put City and Man U out last season and got to the final the season before? The fact is we put more focus on it than City, Arsenal and Chelsea do, and thus were we to get through to the semis, only Arsenal and Liverpool would be fancied against us and we'd still have a good chance against either of them.
You do know that's not how Risk Assessment works don't you? The actual result has no bearing on what our perceived chances of being knocked out are but the results would affect any future assessment of our chances (if we lose its quite an easy calculation).
I wasn't making a risk assessment.. just using common sense. Remember a time before health and safety when people just thought " oh look there's a great big deep hole ! Should i step in it ? Nah I'll just walk around it." BTW I'm also making a case that we would have been better off drawing a big club at home next round .. beat them once over one game at home
Am I correct in thinking that if we beat Brentford the club can then sign 150 million quids worth of players from abroad and play them in the semi finals ?
