Sunday's Meetings Aintree N/H 7 Races 12:40-4:08p.m. Galway N/H 8 Races 12:55-4:43p.m. Wincanton N/H 7 Races 1:02-4:25p.m. Wexford N/H 7 Races 1:07-4:33p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Fergals best bumper horse out tomorrow evening at Aintree? I was at the p2p she won, beat a very fit and smart Curling mare thats now with Harry Derham. DOC tried to steel it from the front but Siog Geal swatted her away easily. Missed the 4s but took the 11/4. Fergal should have a line through his 3rd from that p2p where the Skelton filly came 2nd.
they like her a lot, she worked really well on Friday (was the pick of the first lot). whether I could back her at the prices or not, that’s a different question.
16:43 Galway - Kabylia .A Pro/Am Flat Race for 4YO Fillies only, over 2m on yielding-to-soft ground €165,000 half-sister to Jetronic and French 17-18f. winner Ineffable (by Manduro). Having first run for the Gavin Cromwell stable. Mr. D. G. Lavery on board for the Cromwell yard. 9/2 best price early-doors, in all places on the ATR site.
Just on the Fergal O'Brien mixed day thing. I was having a look at this today, basically I had an argument with the yard on jockeys This season since Paddy Brennan retired has been really poor by their standards, with 23 wins to this point compared to 46 at this point of last season. This is from nearly the exact number of runners. So is it purely that Paddy Brennan is the difference? Let's take a look (2023) These are the numbers for last season, ranked by Winners Against Expectation, which show a very interesting trend. We have Tom Broughton then riding as an amateur at 9 winners from 19 runners, and a WAX value of 3.72. Meaning on market expectations he should have only won between 5 or 6 of those races. We have both Jack Hogan and Connor Brace in positive WAX, with Jack having 2.65 WAX and Connor a very small +0.02. Interestingly the standout on the negative WAX was Paddy Brennan showing a number of -5.26. Meaning that against Market Expectations he rode 11 winners compare to the 16 the market would expect. So this could be shown to show that Paddy Brennan wasn't the guiding light that many could believe in the performance of Fergal O'Brien last summer and into October, but it was the wins by Tom, Jack and Connor that were the real performances against expectations. Adding in 21 winners between Liam and Paddy should not be dismissed though, they both added massively to the 46 total (42%) (2024) So you would think that in 2024 the change of jockey wouldn't make a massive difference, but you look at those numbers above to see that things have dramatically changed. The stable jockey is getting the majority of the wins, with 60% of the winners being attributed to him. Yet Jonathan Burke has a WAX of -2.68, and is closely matched with both Liam and Connor who have yet to ride a winner for the yard this season. Both of those interesting would have only ridden 3 or 4 winners each had they been riding to the WAX estimate. Thus showing the massive change in the yard for this year. Half of what they actually achieved last season! Jack is the only jockey with a positive WAX with Kielan Woods second with his rides for the Megsons. Tom has yet to have a winner and Fern has returned from her stint at Willie Mullins and has picked up two winners but another negative WAX this season. So what is this showing? We have a stable jockey who is taking a greater percentage of rides than the last one, and other jockeys not getting the quality of rides as a result, meaning that the yard are heavily reliant on the ability, consistency and form of just one jockey. To be fair to Jonathan Burke, it shows that he isn't doing too badly, he is just 2.68 behind WAX. I find this fascinating because when you go back to 2022 you see the real benefit of a stable jockey in great form and a yard going great guns (2022) Paddy had 40% of the stables rides that period, but had a remarkable 37 winners, with a +4.79 WAX. Interesting the two jockeys behind him were Kielan Woods and a certain Jack Hogan. This shows that when you are in form, your jockey is in form, then things take off!! So who is to blame for the poorer form this season of Fergal O'Brien Racing compared to 2023 and 2022? I will leave that to you!!
Its pretty obvious given those stats that the yard are either out of form or just dont have the ammunition. It could also be argued that the expectation has changed for this yard in recent years. Being reasonably close to what goes on there I would say that they have "lost the ****ing plot"
I can imagine. PING! Oh there he is again. PING! Even when you're sat on the throne. PING! Very intrusive WhatsApp
Yes, but it drifted like the proverbial barge so they obviously didnt even know that one was going to hose up.
I never play SP, but in the morning his odds were 7/2, and I thought it was unlikely to stay that way, so I played SP. So 8/1 in the end. He saved the day.
