Daily Racing Thread Sunday 6th. October 2024

Sunday's Meetings

Longchamp
Flat 8 Races 12:55-5:50p.m.
Uttoxeter
N/H 8 Races 1:15-5:20p.m.
Tipperary
Mixed 8 Races 1:20-5:25p.m.
Kelso
N/H 7 Races 1:30-5:00p.m.
Killarney
Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m.

Racecards
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Good Luck

 

Longchamp
15,20 Aventure 22/1 e/w WH and bet365 four places, 16/1 sky five places

Uttoxeter
16,45 Northern Reel 7/1 e/w WH, Lads, Coral and sky four places (It may be better to wait for the SP)

 

A week early, but it feels a bit like the jump season is beginning. I have five areas of interest for this jumps season, in its day to day form.... one of which is on show today.

1 - Oliver Sherwood has finished, so does that add value to Harry Derham. We see this today with Norn Iron in the first at Uttoxeter, I wonder how many ex Sherwood horses are at Derham's and how will they perform? I expect a good season for the yard and with Sherwood's support it should thrive. The yard have 78 horses in training according to the BHA, so it will be interesting if they can get over 50 winners from that yard this season. Norn Iron is a bet today, its form is pretty tasty in view of this heat.

2 - Changing of the guard. This is all about Fergal's yard and the retirement of Paddy Brennan. How will this impact the yard, and what is the future direction. They have got Jonathan Burke in as stable jockey, and he has 10 winners on the board for the yard this season. However what difference will his arrangement with the yard have for jockeys such as Connor Brace, Liam Harrison and Jack Hogan. Then you throw in that Fern O'Brien is picking up rides, and it could be a stressed yard for jockeys and rides. Add in that Kielan Woods is riding the Megson horses and James Best, Ben Sutton and Max Kendrick all have horses they ride for connections in the yard.

It is remarkable that to this point both Liam and Connor have yet to ride a winner for the yard over jumps. Remarkable.

3 - Skelton's versus Nicholls. I think this is going to be a regular one on racecards this year. The market dominated by these two yards. However who will have the best season? I think Nicholls has had money to spend, but he always does, and is it fair to say that he is underperforming against his average? Then Skelton's yard seems to be thriving, with festival winners and really useful horses coming to the fore. Will they kick on and become the leading force over the master of Ditcheat.

4 - Will Henderson allow his horses to run regularly? Most know that this is an opinion of mine, but the amount of races Henderson gives his horses is concerning to me. Since the 1st October 2023 Nicky has only sent out 5 horses that have raced more than six times in the year. (comparison FOB has had 19) He has had limited running opportunity for his big guns, and then he had injury and illness that impacted on his runners for the festival. He has some of the best horses in training, Jonbon and Con Hill, and a host of talented youngsters. However, will we see them enough?

5 - Jockeys. In the UK we had a golden generation, you could even include Paddy Brennan in that, when Ruby and AP were at their prime, we had brilliance in abundance. However we have had a decline, with jockeys such as Brian Hughes and Harry Skelton winning championships. Are we on the cusp of another change with Sean Bowen and others waiting in the wings? I am hoping this season we see the growth of new jockeys and further development of those younger jockeys like Cobden, Bowen(s) and the likes of Gingell and Freddie Gordon coming through.


So enough of that rambling. Its all about Norn Iron today.

 

15:20 Parislongchamp:

Rev. Forecast:

Sosie/Delius

 

There does not seem to be much point in analysing a couple of the races on the Arc card.

I posted the video of Zarkava’s granddaughter Zarigana winning the Prix d’Aumale in a common canter and she is odds on to win the Prix Marcel Boussac (12:55) over the same course and distance. The Bedtime Story bubble was burst in the Moyglare, although she reportedly returned lame, but the daughter of Mecca’s Angel has only beaten five rivals in two races since her saunter in the Chesham as three of the runners in those two races were the same horses, including stablemate Exactly twice – she finished third in the Moyglare with Simmering ahead of her. The each way in the race looks like unbeaten Lhakpa as the other French runners are totally exposed.

In the Prix de l’Abbaye (2:05), I cannot think of any reason why Believing should reverse running with Bradsell and I expect to see Hollie Doyle being led in on Archie Watson’s sprinter at around ten past two with his 2024 record extended to four wins.

The Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (1:30) is only contested by nine but five of them are from Britain and Ireland. Three of the French runners were last seen in the Prix la Rochette, which Houquetot won from Heybetli with Tiego The First in fifth. I cannot think of any reason why that finishing order should be any different today over the same course and distance, so perhaps the best chance of the prize money staying in France is the unbeaten Prix des Chenes winner Misunderstood, who won very easily that day but on much softer ground that he will find today. Houquetot had previously been beaten in the Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville by Joseph O’Brien’s Cowardofthecounty, who was subsequently fifth in the National Stakes, a race where Henri Matisse finished second as odds on favourite. Simply taking those form lines at face value puts the Aidan O’Brien juvenile at the front of the pecking order; however, today he has been fitted with a visor. The other Ballydoyle contender, Camille Pissarro, needs to step up markedly on his second in a Doncaster sales race and sixth in the Gimcrack if he is to feature and I wonder if he is actually in the line-up to ensure there is some pace. Rashabar has not been seen since chasing home Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny, prior to which he had been a shock 80/1 winner of the Coventry with Cowardofthecounty and Camille Pissarro behind. Clearly he has been kept for this but Whistlejacket hardly advertised the form when thrashed in the Middle Park last week. That just leaves Field Of Gold, the Solario winner hailing from the Gosden yard, who won at Sandown with a little to spare and does not need to find too much improvement today to challenge.

After the Arc, there are two Group 1 events: the Prix de l’Opéra (4:05) and the Prix de la Forêt (4:40). The former has reduced from eighteen declared at the forfeit stage to just eleven starters, perhaps because of the going. It looks quite easy to eliminate a number of those left. Carlos and Yann Lerner field Almara who was second in the Prix Saint Alary early in the season and won the Prix de Psyche when last seen in July. That form leaves her something to find here. Elusive Princess has not won this year and was fourth in a Group 3 over course and distance last time, form that also will not be good enough today. Running Lion was last seen finishing last in the Falmouth Stakes and the Group 2 winner might be out of her depth in this company. Listed winner Start Of Day was second in the Prix d’Orange over this course and distance but she needs to find quite a bit of improvement to win today. Friendly Soul was a huge disappointment in the Musidora back in May but won both starts since, last time winning the Prix Alec Head. The runner up that day, Birthe, had previously been seventh in the Prix de Diane, won by Sparkling Plenty and Patrice Cottier’s filly drops back to that trip after a modest effort in the Prix Vermeille (Birthe last). She was third in the Nassau when given too much to do by today’s jockey but should have a good chance if put in the race before it is too late! American Sonja has first time blinkers and her best effort to date was being touched off by Mqse De Sevigne in the Prix Jean Romanet. Last time she was fifth behind Hanalia and it is hard to see that form being reversed. That win suggests Johnny Murtagh’s three year old is going in the right direction but she had previously been sixth in the Irish Oaks, where Content was second before she reversed placings with the winner in the Yorkshire Oaks. There is no reason I can think of why Christophe Soumillon’s mount will benefit from this drop in trip and Ryan Moore is on the other Ballydoyle contender Ylang Ylang. The daughter of Frankel has yet to win this term and disappointed as Oaks favourite. She was last seen in the Matron Stakes, where FALLEN ANGEL was ahead of her chasing home Porta Fortuna. I think that Karl Burke’s daughter of Too Darn Hot will have no problem with the extra two furlongs today and I expect to see her up near the leaders most of the way under a positive James Doyle ride.

Although numerically the Prix de la Forêt looks competitive, I think that many of the outsiders can easily be discounted. King Gold, Zerostress, Ocean Jewel, Breege, Matilda Picotte, Gregarina and Ribaltagaia are all out of their depth today. On her second in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, Exxtra could enter calculations as two or three of these were behind that day, including Beauvatier, subsequently beaten in a Group 3 over six furlongs. Frankel filly Kelina has been well beaten in the Prix Du Moulin and the Prix Rothschild on her last two starts but she was well beaten in those two races last year before winning this race. She beat 2022 winner Kinross last year and the old boy returns on the back of a victory in the Park Stakes, where Poet Master was fifth. Tiber Flow has won the John Of Gaunt and the Hungerford this year and steps up to Group 1 level for the first time but this might be too big a step. River Tiber started his campaign with a good third in the Irish 2000 Guineas but disappointed when favourite for the Jersey and did not have the speed for the July Cup. Whether a return to seven furlongs after more than two months off to freshen up will see him involved in the finish here we will find out. It is anyone’s guess which version of Big Rock will show up today. Will it be the version that made all in the Queen Elizabeth II last year? Or the version that was out with the washing in the Queen Anne this year? In theory (on the bare ratings) he is the best horse in the field but that soft ground Ascot win might be over-rated. The filly Ramatuelle has been kept for this race after finishing third in the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes but I wonder if that form is good enough against the boys and the older horses. So that leads me to my problem with this race. When I first saw the field, the Prix Du Moulin winner TRIBALIST immediately caught my eye. My problem is that he is a front runner and if he does not get near the lead he is likely to sulk and not run his race – and he is likely to have competition for the lead in the form of Big Rock and possibly River Tiber.

 

Slightly left field but I’m fascinated to see how fiddling Dan can get 20 odd lbs off Langer Dan’s mark to secure his hat-trick of Coral Cup wins in March. Seems a tall order to me but if anyone can fiddling Dan can. Remember LD doesn’t come alive until the Spring

 

I wonder if Barzalona has signed his contract yet?

Not the most distinguished ride by him.

 

Certainly drizzling.

 

15:25 Killarney - The Striker Dylan

Has a squeak in this 80-102 Handicap Hurdle over a distance just short of 2m7f on good-to-yielding ground. Suited by track conditions and should give a decent account after running well lately. Richard Deegan rides for the Liam Cusack stable.

10/3 best price early-doors, in most places on the ATR site.

 

and the horse?

 

Nice one Timeform

 

In the Abbaye anything 25/1 or shorter (10 of them) is mainly blue on Oddschecker

 

Notable exception is Grand Grey who has just gone pink across the board

Washington Heights and Desperate Hero going the same way

 

Loads going pink now. Bradswell, Starlist and Makarova now the blue ones