From Thursday’s action, I would be more interested in Opera Singer. After the race, Aidan O’Brien revealed that Ryan Moore had said after she won the Prix Marcel Boussac that she could be an Arc filly. The only issue is that they are likely to keep her to ten furlongs (O’Brien mentioned a trip to France), so she could show up at Longchamp having not tackled twelve furlongs. It will be interesting to see where Jan Brueghel shows up next. If he goes for the Great Voltigeur then it looks more likely that he will be seen on Town Moor in September.
If anything is going to stir up some life in the Arc betting before Irish Champions’ Weekend or the Arc Trials meeting at Longchamp, then it will have to be the York Ebor meeting. Looking at the cards for Wednesday and Thursday is where most of the significant action is going to take place. Wednesday sees the Great Voltigeur Stakes (normal recognised as a St Leger trial) and the Juddmonte International. Five of the eight still left in the Great Voltigeur are from Ballydoyle, so how many of them are going to show up and which of them is running to win or in as a pacemaker. The two most likely to run for the win are Los Angeles and Illinois (the two top rated O’Brien entries). The former also still holds an entry in the Juddmonte but Harry Charlton’s King’s Gambit only has the Group 2 race entry left and could look to make the running under Buick. All eyes in the Juddmonte will be on City Of Troy, re-opposed by Eclipse third Ghostwriter and Derby runner up Ambiente Friendly; but also facing a foreign challenge from Calandagan and Zarakem as well as York Stakes winner Alflaila and compatriot White Birch. The filly Bluestocking is still engaged but she is also in the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday. A decision by Juddmonte as to whether Ralph Beckett’s filly goes after their own prize money or the Group 1 for females is yet to be made. Beckett also has the Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me engaged on Thursday so he might like to run Bluestocking on Wednesday. There are only two Ballydoyle possibles left in Thursday’s Group 1, as many as the Gosdens are running in Emily Upjohn and Queen Of The Pride. William Haggas still has Sea Theme entered in the Yorkshire Oaks, who won last year’s Sir Henry Cecil Galtres; however, I am very interested in his runner in that Listed prize this year. Definitely the one of interest in the Galtres is Sea Just In Time, winner of two of her three starts, owned by the Tsui family that owned her sire Sea The Stars and still holding an entry in the Arc. She was turned over in a Listed race at Goodwood when long odds on but could she be worth a sneaky little bet at the 100/1 currently available for the Paris showpiece in October? She was obviously well regarded before she debuted in May as they entered her. Last year’s fourth in this race Climate Friendly is likely to be back as a yardstick.
AOB mentions possible races for COT before he sets off for the Breeders Cup Classic. Not once did he mention the Arc, neither was he asked about it which is odd. Is he quietly nibbling away at the 10/1 before having a late "change of mind". Surely COT would be more certain to win the Arc than the Classic? Los Angeles is unbeaten apart from his 3rd to COT where the race report said "Sweating, fractious at the post, reluctant to load, raced in second, pressed leader going easily 4f out, led 3f out, lost two places 2f out, soon outpaced, no match for first two" If you forgive him that he has won good races on ground varying from V Soft to GF. I'm still thinking the same as my earlier post here and that is Los Angeles ew, although now only 16/1 Edit: and at 4.5 (B365) I would probably have a saver on the fav to win just in case he is another Ace Impact (unbeaten, not run over the distance but bred to do so)
I will almost certainly stick with the one with the 'girlie-sounding' name, i.e. Sosie. A fine big racehorse, he goes best on good ground, and will be at a disadvantage if it comes up soft or heavy on Arc day. Will have to wait and see in this respect. Owned by the Wertheimer group, he will be ridden by their contracted jockey, Maxime Guyon, and trained by the great André Fabre. Colt has had relatively few races but seems very much an improving type at the top level. He'll do for me.
The Arc would not be run on quick ground with a tail wind and I would like to think that the other jockeys would not allow Ryan Moore a free hand to set his own fractions like they did at York. According to the report I read, The Boys have decided that City Of Troy is going straight to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That could be the greatest stitch up in racing history but I suspect it is more likely that the only place you will see City Of Troy on a British or French racecourse will be for a try out at either Southwell or Wolverhampton to see how he reacts to kitty litter (i.e. a different surface to turf). If he shows an obvious aversion perhaps they will change their minds. To my mind any ante post bet on anything but the Classic is money in the bookies’ bank account. If I was looking to back anything at Ballydoyle for the Arc, the three year old filly Opera Singer would be as far as I would look. Given O’Brien’s chronic winner-to-runner ratio in Europe’s richest race, reality tells me to look elsewhere. He currently has 4 of the top 11 in the betting, you will be lucky to see Los Angeles run if he has a hard race on Town Moor and Content might have other plans.
According to this, he's entered for just about everything from 10f to 2 miles If he runs in either of the St Legers I doubt there would be much point going to France. Didn't realise he had so many entries
The operative words in all of those entries that the horse currently holds are the first two: “Early closer”. Coolmore can afford to pay the initial entry fees and then just not pay the next declaration fee for horses that they won’t be running. Twelve of the thirty three still entered in the Irish Champion reside at Ballydoyle. Nine of the fifteen still left in the St Leger come from Ballydoyle. Eighteen of the forty two in the Irish St Leger. That the horse holds entries in two St Legers on the same weekend (he won’t be at Leopardstown for the Irish Champion and Doncaster for the St Leger on the 14th) and two races on Champions’ Day tells you that they did not know what distance would best suit the horse at the date when they had to make the entries.
The St Leger made precious little impact on the Arc betting as no horse that featured in the finish is even listed in the market. The Irish Champion Stakes winner Economics appears in quite a few lists at a best-priced 16/1 or a ridiculous 8/1 with Bet Victor while Auguste Rodin is 40/1; however, the most significant change to the betting was the Leopardstown third, the Japanese trained Shin Emperor – a full brother to 2020 Arc winner Sottsass – at 12/1 with Bet 365 but just 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral. The French bred had previously been third in the Japanese Derby in May over 2,400m. Ahead of Arc Trials day, Look de Vega still heads the betting at 7/2 ahead of Sosie 7/1 with other Sunday runners Opera Singer 14/1, Sparkling Plenty 20/1, Delius 20/1, Continuous 22/1, Aventure 33/1, Augustus 33/1, Bluestocking 33/1 and Survie 40/1.
I think that you can scratch Continuous and Feed The Flame from your Arc considerations with two geldings fighting out the finish of the Prix Foy, victory going to Iresine for a second time after Soumillon set a crawl on the favourite and lost the sprint in the straight. At the time of writing Continuous is out to 40/1 and Feed The Flame out to 500/1 after being eased down and pulled up in the straight. I have to say that the video feed on Bet 365 has been rubbish today. It froze twice in the Prix Vermeille so I missed the finish. As it was Bluestocking won having been handy most of the race. She held off three year old Aventure and old foe Emily Upjohn was a close third. Halfday had clearly been put in as pacemaker for the runner-up so there was no French crawl and this looks a good trial for all the front three. The bookies were not impressed with Bluestocking still available at 14/1, Aventure 20/1 and Emily Upjohn 50/1 ahead of the Prix Niel for the three year old colts. Opera Singer (fifth) and Sparkling Plenty (sixth) now both 33/1. With Augustus taken out of the Prix Niel just five faced the starter. Look de Vega set off to make the running at a moderate pace but at the turn into the straight Sosie challenged on the outside and Delius was coming wide. Then the ******* Bet 365 video stream froze on me again so I missed the finish. Looking up the result I see that Sosie had made the decisive move on the turn and held off Delius. Hardly a surprise that the Andre Fabre colt is still 7/1, Delius is now 14/1 and Look de Vega (third) is out to 7/1 after surrendering his unbeaten record. Interesting observation about the race times: Vermeille 2:31, Foy 2:34, Niel 2:34. The shortest price Ballydoyle horse now is Los Angeles at 12/1 with Opera Singer and Savethelastdance next at 33/1. Time for Coolmore to send for City Of Troy?
Now fav Swanny, although I'm not certain which one will come out best out of him (almost said her again) and Delius come the day of reckoning I don't still know what to make of the form but Blue Stocking seems to be the one who has improved the most and was nearly 3 secs faster than Sosie over same C&D today. 5 secs slower than Ace Impact last year but that was on going described as good to soft, as opposed to today's soft. There is nothing that stands out so, for now I'll just stick with my EWs on Los Angeles at 20s and 16s (now as low as 8/1) If it had been open to geldings I would be all over Goliath and that would be it for me; simple
The Prix Niel was a real test for Sosie, as the colt had to prove himself on soft ground, on which there is a real chance that this will be the track going on Arc day.Thought he came out of it with flying colours. Delius just cannot seem to get to him, but Delius will still be a big danger to all in the Arc, that's for sure. Will stick with Sosie through thick and thin though!
It would be interesting if O’Brien let Kyprios take his chance in the Arc. I backed both Ascot Gold Cup winners in the event, Levmoss and Westerner. The former won and the latter ran second to Hurricane Run. The race can suit a class stayer, but does Kyprios have the same turn of foot as the two above? I doubt it but I’ll have a bit of the 50/1 offered if he should run.
