Saturday's Meetings Haydock Flat 7 Races 1:15-5:15p.m. Ascot Flat 7 Races 1:35-5:05p.m. Kempton A/W 7 Races 2:00-5:30p.m. Thirsk Flat 8 Races 2:05-6:10p.m. Navan Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:40p.m. Stratford(E) N/H 6 Races 4:12-6:50p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 8 Races 4:50-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Best bet I can see tomorrow is in the 15.55 Ascot Rohaan 3/1 Unibet Fresh 7/2 WH 2 points on both to win = Evs either one
Ever since I can remember I have always taken a look at 2yos who finish 5th or 6th in a big field (12 or more) on debut. If it looks like it was a decent race, not beaten far, finishing well and a decent time and decent breeding I rate it as having a chance nto. Huscal 15.10 Thirsk looks to have fit that bill. His debut was a 31K C2 maiden at Goodwood, beaten 3½l despite dwelling at the srart, and it was run in a decent time (fast by 0.13s). Sire Saxon Warrior out of a Roman Emperor mare, not bad pedigree. Of those in front 3 have won since, one hasn't run since and the winner of that race was up with the leaders in the hotly contested G3 Acomb Stakes at York, before finding himself short of room and losing position 4f out and beaten almost 13l by the clear 2000 Gns and Derby favourite in what was a course record. Huscal did actually win nto but I missed that. He has an entry in the G2 Mill Reef Stakes so is highly thought of. I expect him to continue improving and win tomorrow. Currently 11/4 fav but could end up much shorter
BTW ... dont get lulled into any soft description in the sprint races at Haydock tomorrow (Sprint Cup). Just spoken to a Traveliing Head Lad friend of mine who said on the straight course its was riding good and with a strong drying wind..... no rain forecast...
If you show up at the betting shop at ten past two to back that one you will find that you are five minutes too late. According to the Sporting Life racecards it is the first race at 2.05, their Timeform man is tipping it and it is favourite to lose its maiden tag at the fifth attempt. Good luck if you go in the bookies before five past two but 9/4 is too short for me in an open looking nursery.
The weather has made a right mess of the racing schedule these last couple of days. On Thursday Salisbury went from Good to Firm to Abandoned while Newbury went from Good to Firm to Soft. Friday’s Ascot card had Soft ground that is now Good to Soft in places. In the meantime, Haydock, normally associated with rainy Manchester weather, has dried out from Good to Soft on Thursday to Good on Saturday morning. So I will give Ascot a miss and concentrate on Haydock. The feature race is the Sprint Cup (3:35) but I do not think this is as competitive as the sixteen runner field would suggest. The drying ground is bad news for the mare Vadream who was last in the winner’s enclosure in the 2023 Palace House Stakes and is not good enough at this level. Flora Of Bermuda won a Group 3 on her penultimate start (Unequal Love behind) and was nearly four lengths fourth when last seen in a Group 1 that does not suggest she is quite up to this level. Art Power does not want the ground drying out and has not won since last October. Annaf has not been seen since February and his career best effort was probably third in the King’s Stand over a furlong less last year. Moss Tucker has also had a long layoff and is another who ran his best race over five and only has a Group 3 win over six. This also looks like a bit of an ask for Montassib, who has not been seen since winning a Group 3 on the Newcastle kitty litter in June. Shouldvebeenaring is admirably consistent and was second in this race last term but his best win was on his penultimate start when he took a Group 3 at Deauville with Spycatcher less than two lengths sixth. Although Ryan Moore looks a significant booking for Spycatcher, Karl Burke’s gelding was fifth in the Group 3 won by Montassib and won a Deauville Group 3 a couple of weeks ago. In last year’s Champion Sprint on soft ground he was third to Art Power with Swingalong just behind and Vadream seventh. Elite Status has earned a step up to the highest level with two Newbury wins from two starts this year, most recently the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes with Kind Of Blue third, and should go well here. Bucanero Fuerte is an interesting contender having won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes as a juvenile but he has not been seen since beating Givemethebeatboys in a Naas Group 3, which suggests he may have had issues in the three months since. Givemethebeatboys beat Kind Of Blue in a Group 3 at The Curragh but had been stone last in the Commonwealth Cup previously where that rival was fourth with Jasour third. Swingalong was fourth in this last term but has improved since with a second in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup giving her solid form claims today. That July Cup looks one of the most significant pieces of form for today as behind Swingalong that day were Art Power (fourth), favourite Inisherin (fifth), Jasour (sixth) and Vadream (seventh). The winner that day, Mill Stream, let the form down in the Prix Maurice de Gheest (fifth, with Flora Of Bermuda fourth) but I am going to take a chance on the Kevin Ryan trained favourite that day INISHERIN to return to the form he showed when blitzing his rivals in the Commonwealth Cup. Prior to that he had won over course and distance with plenty to spare on soft ground so Tom Eaves mount can stake his claim to the sprinting crown with another such performance.
Forced to look at Mearall, having replaced my selection as favourite. Obviously a danger, back down in class, but I'm hopeful that 11/4 was good value for Huscal
Phew, QMII's usual thorough analysis emphasizes to me what a really tough race the Sprint Cup at Haydock is, even though he reckons it is not as competitive as it looks. Think I'll chicken-out and look elsewhere for something today! Better get cracking!
David Menuisier has the favourites for both of the 14 furlong handicaps on the Haydock card. In the 1:50, restricted to three year olds, he has Master Builder, having only his fifth race but only raised 3lb for a fetching third place finish in the Melrose handicap a fortnight ago on Ebor day at York. He is short enough today for a horse running again quickly after contesting such a competitive handicap. He also has the favourite now for the Old Borough Cup (2:25) with Sea The Moon filly Waxing Gibbous (clever name) having been backed to benefit from the extra two furlongs today after winning a weak Newbury handicap off a 9lb lower mark and following up with a second on the Kempton kitty litter off a 3lb lower mark. That last run was at the end of June so clearly she is thought to be fit enough after a break today. That Old Borough Cup features form from the Ebor handicap and I wonder if following it just a fortnight after a tough race might be the undoing of punters today. Oneforthegutter was third at York and has Ryan Moore’s services this time but his previous best effort was when second at this trip to Fairbanks (Knightswood fourth) – that one was only fourteenth at York. Also in the Ebor was fourth placed Epic Poet, much more fancied on the day thanks to a second in the Duke Of Edinburgh and fifth in the John Smith’s Cup (Euchen Glen sixth). David O’Meara’s charge would be my preference of the two. Old boy Euchen Glen should run his race again but seems unlikely to be good enough to repeat his win in this of four years ago. Several of the outsiders here look easily discounted, with Caliyza making her stable debut after ten months off the track, No Say Ever having not run for two years and eight year old Rajinksy having not seen a track in more than a year. Law Of The Sea is on a long losing run and normally runs over two miles so the drop in trip gives no grounds for optimism. Topweight Grand Alliance has also not been seen for a year but he won the Group 3 John Porter first time out last year so it is really a case of can he give the weight away all round. Bottom of the weights is Lincoln Rockstar whose form figures are impressive until you see that they are all Class 5 and 6 races. She is chasing a hat-trick after wins in small fields against modest opponents and her claimer will compensate for her being 5lb out of the handicap. The mare Divine Comedy has winning form at this trip but has been plying her trade over two miles recently and it would need a career best to win off 102. If Not Now comes back from a three month layoff and steps up two furlongs on only his seventh start but he comes from a hot yard that turned in three winners from seven runners yesterday so must have good claims. Knightswood’s last win was a small field handicap last June, he has finished behind Divine Comedy, Euchen Glen and Oneforthegutter in races this term and could be the pace angle today with Joe Fanning aboard. The Goat won on the Kempton kitty litter three races back and was third off today’s mark last time but would need a career best to win over the extra two furlongs and Oisin Murphy’s mount is drawn in the next parish! So that leaves me with double jeopardy: DANCING IN PARIS followed up a third on Shergar Cup day with a win on the kitty litter in the Racing League fixture at Southwell but that was only 9 days ago. He did not have a hard race that day but does this come too soon? He has run well off shorter breaks before, winning at York after running four days previously, so I will chance him putting up a career best as he was raised 7lb to 87.
That's the conclusion I came to QM. Swingalong has bee doing OK lately which makes me wonder whatever happened to Queen Me. I noted her when beaten a neck by Swingalong in the G2 Lowther Stakes back in 2022; By Dubawi out of a Frankel mare, I expected more from her but it all went wrong
The 15:50 at Thirsk, a Class-3 Handicap over 6f on good ground, is a competitive event, but will take a chance with the Dark Angel filly, Midnight Affair. Trainer thinks quite a lot of her and gives her a chance to run a decent race today. Well-drawn in Stall-10. Wears visor as before. Oisin McSweeney (3) on board for the Richard Fahey yard. 8/1 (Coral/BetVictor) top price early-doors, on the ATR site. E/W best option. Have an enjoyable and successful weekend, folks!
Del Mar 11.00 - Tenma 11/2 The odds on fav Nooni has a big reputation, she was bought for 1.8m despite being by a 3k sire, shes all speed and with pace pressure from Proud Starlet, it could be a testing 7f for her. I think the other Baffert is worth a bet at the prices, very similar profile to connections 2019 winner Bast, almost identical debut efforts. Tenma is a quality big filly, betting suggested she would need the run first time so like Bast, she should improve a ton for that and the step up in trip.
Well both my picks get heavily punted but failed to deliver. I had 9/2 Inisherin, who went off 5/2, but was a bitter disappointment (again), fading away tamely after coming under pressure two furlongs from home. I wondered whether the pace was too fast early in the race as all of those that were up near the lead were not still around at the business end of the race as outsider Montassib just edged out Kind Of Blue. When it was obvious that my selection was not going to win, the owner’s other runner Elite Status was still travelling well but he found little when asked for his effort. I had 8/1 Dancing In Paris and I could not understand why he was being hammered like some sort of good thing in such a trappy race as I would not have touched him at 4/1 or 7/2. If the punters that piled on had read the form then they knew that they had done their money after a furlong as he was at the back of the ‘mid division’ of the field, which meant that he already had too much to do; so a well beaten third was about as well as he was entitled to do with 7lb more than last time. Credit where it is due to Epic Poet beating Waxing Gibbous after his recent exertions in the Ebor but I think the handicapper is going to take a dim view of that pair finishing four lengths clear, although the filly started out on a low enough mark that she might improve to defy a rise.
Finished 3rd at 9/1 SP. Fine effort from the filly, and she ran-on really well. One for the notebook, I'd say? Happy with the e/w.
