I've not done stats for ions....But I guess the distribution will be somewhere in this ballpark...give or take.... 1-2 = 0% chance 3-6 = 5% " 7-10 = 18% " 11-14= 32% " 15-18= 24% " 19-21= 16% " 22-24 = 5% "
If we want to hit the pace for the top six within the first ten games (1.6 points per game), City have six games to get 13 points. Four wins and a draw.
Only 5% chance of relegation.......tbh thats not a bad return...of course its based on nothing but a guessestimate.
To be honest, a club finished 7th earlier season should not even discuss relegation. At least there shouldn't be any fans imagining that.
Especially considering the state of play at the minute… Burnley have just been decimated, Luton look crap, Blunts look decent but have dropped a few already. Leeds and Sunderland the stand outs but I expect Sunderland to fall away due to depth. All to play for
Last thing I want to do is pile on Acun, who has brought so much hope to City fans after the Allam years, but I did say last season that we should have targeted this season. His big spend in January was ridiculous, when even if we had made the top six, we only had a 1 in 4 chance to get promoted. Particularly when it impacted so badly on this and the next two seasons spending and decimated the squad for this season.
It's not the same club that finished 7th though. A new manager claiming to be playing a different style, a plethora of important first teamers gone and a big influx of unproven/unknown replacements. We might as well have just entered the division for all the comparisons with last season are relevant.
Agreed. Progression isn’t linear. We can talk about the 7th-place finish last year as much as we want but it’s pointless comparing it to this year. It’s almost an entirely new squad. Of the starting XI against Plymouth for final game of last season, only Jones and Slater are still here and in the current starting XI. This summer was a reset so expectations this season shouldn’t be compared to last season’s finish, in my opinion.
That's not my problem, it is the problem of leadership. They took a decision, if their decision takes team behind, they should burden the consequences too. As a fan, it is my right to demand progress, if they fail, I will just stall my support until they are gone or change things.
Much of this is due to ffp restrictions in the championship. Without parachute payments, most teams can't push for promotion year in year out. There's a tendency to see non parachute clubs build towards a promotion push depending on the ffp cycle. Middlesborough are a good example of this and had a similar reset last summer, selling most of their prize assets to rebuild. They're looking healthier this season though in terms of squad at least and finished last season well. It's not just us, therefore at least some of the blame must lie with a flawed system of financial governance which massively favours recent premier league sides.
Heart says Champions, head says top six. Yeah I know, but if you write it down and believe, anything can happen. Safeguard for me, top half!
If WalterBall is a success then we will win promotion on a glorious day at Wembley, followed by consolidation in the Premier League and European football within 3 years. If WalterBall fails then we will have successive relegations, followed by another great escape season at the foot of the football league. Acun sells to Don Robinson who is celebrating his 100th birthday - he rides around the pitch on a white horse and the whole Circus of supporting Hull City continues! Or perhaps something else might happen, I've no idea really at the moment.
