Saturday's Meetings Worcester N/H 7 Races 12:40-4:05p.m. Epsom Downs Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:50p.m. The Derby Off @ 4:30p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:20p.m. Listowel N/H 7 Races 2:25-6:00p.m. Hexham(E) N/H 6 Races 4:15-7:07p.m. Doncaster(E) Flat 8 Races 4:38-8:20p.m. Tramore(E) N/H 7 Races 5:10-8:25p.m. Stratford(E) N/H 8 Races 5:23-9:00p.m. Lingfield(E) Flat 7 Races 5:35-8:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Derby at Epsom (16:30). Wiithout further ado selection is Ancient Wisdom. Stable are very confident of a top performance from the Dubawi colt. William Buick on board for the Charlie Appleby yard. 13/2 (Wm.Hill) top price at time of writing on the ATR site. Have a successful and enjoyable Derby Day, folks. Good luck!
One of those silly stats Oddy. I would have to have a list of all horses drawn 11 and see what chance thay had of winning from any other draw
I never really pay much attention to the rest of the Epson card on Derby day but having the „3YO Dash“ followed by the „Dash“ itself seems a bit unimaginative to me. What next? The „2YO Fillies Dash“?
A very difficult Derby to dissect. I couldn't touch any of the Ballydoyle runners - City Of Troy flattered to deceive as a 2YO and for me hasn't trained on; Los Angeles won a poor looking trial; Euphoric just behind Los Angeles at Leopardstown and no reason to think he is good enough to win a Derby. There are a few runners who just look like wild punts or a day out for the owners (Dallas Star, Deira Miles, God's WIndow, Kamboo, Mr Hampstead, Sayedaty Sadaty, Tabletalk) and whilst Voyage was visually impressive at Newbury it would be a huge effort to win the Derby on just his second start having basically won hands and heels on debut - can't imagine he'll have the strength for a protracted battle up the straight. So I have narrowed it down to 4 runners. I think Dancing Gemini is very interesting stepping up markedly in trip - he is certainly bred for Epsom and finished to good effect in the French 2000 Guineas (finished 2nd). If he settles he could be involved. Bellum Justum won the Eprom trial well but a couple of those behind him let the form down at Lingfield (more of that in a moment) and I also think it significant that the 2nd Chief Little Rock does not go to Epsom. Ancient Wisdom got closest to Economics at York but looked very one paced to me and whilst he should stay the trip today I think something could do him for pace. I think that something could be Ambiente Friendly. He looks like a horse who has improved markedly from 2 to 3 (and his 2YO form was already quite decent) and, despite being keen early, he absolutely routed the field in the Lingfield Derby Trial. For me he just looked like a Derby winner in waiting and I hope he can do the business today for the Gredley family.
I don’t know why but there is something in my DNA that doesn’t allow me to back a horse when the regular partner has been jocked off. I quite like the Hannon horse who has a lovely pedigree but very little racecourse experience.
As the draw is a random event you would have to say that the draw distribution of horses with the best chances over many years is also random (I think the list below of horses drawn 11 this century backs that up - a sample of 23 gives you 5 horses with single digit odds and also 3 with triple digit odds) - but anyway it is the kind of monkey you'd rather not have on your back in the race. I don't know how superstitious Will Buick is but I bet he is aware of the stat and it might affect how he starts, where he puts his horse in the first couple of furlongs etc. Then again he might buck the trend and win today. Derby runners drawn in stall 11 2023 – Waipiro 25/1 (6th) 2022 – West Wind Blows 40/1 (9th) 2021 – One Ruler 17/2 (6th) 2020 – Kameko 5/2 fav (4th) 2019 – Japan 20/1 (3rd) 2018 – The Pentagon 33/1 (8th) 2017 – Salouen 33/1 (13th) 2016 – Massaat 11/1 (9th) 2015 – Rogue Runner 50/1 (9th) 2014 – Romsdal 20/1 (3rd) 2013 – Galileo Rock 25/1 (3rd) 2012 – N/A only 9 runners 2011 – Castlemorris King 150/1 (12th) 2010 – Rewilding 9/2 (3rd) 2009 – Montaff 40/1 (12th) 2008 – King of Rome 16/1 (12th) 2007 – Helene Mascot 20/1 (6th) 2006 – Dragon Dancer 66/1 (2nd) 2005 – Kong 20/1 (13th) 2004 – Rule of Law 20/1 (2nd) 2003 – Prince Nureyev 150/1 (20th) 2002 – Bandari 9/2 (8th) 2001 – Tobougg 9/1 (3rd) 2000 – Zyz I 100/1 (9th)
I agree it is a bit unfair on Callum Shepherd - I thought he rode the perfect race at Lingfield. Owners prerogative I guess.
Worcester 13,10 Est Illic 10/1 e/w four places, sky 17/2 five places Epsom 16,30 Voyage 25/1 e/w WH four places, Lads and Coral three places, sky 16/1 five places
Whilst there are sixteen in the line-up for The Derby, there are a number of them that are only here to make up the numbers as they really would be an upset if they won. The maiden Mr Hampstead is having his first race of the year for a new trainer and should be more than 100/1 to emulate King Of Steel’s placing. The owners of Tabletalk must be real optimists adding their horse to the field on the strength of winning a maiden on the kitty litter. Being runner-up in two Listed races this year marks Sayedaty Sadaty down as well short of this grade and he has nearly 10lb to find with several in this field. Another seasonal debutant Kamboo has yet to run on turf and this is an unrealistic place to start. Of the rags at big prices the only one I could make a case for is God’s Window. He has good juvenile form with other contenders but was last in the Dee Stakes and only beat two home in the Dante after leading for the first mile. One run one win for Voyage (with Mr Hampstead behind) has somehow earned him a place in the line-up and he might still be around at the business end of the race if inexperience does not make its mark. If Dallas Star were with a bigger yard, would his odds be shorter? He hammered three Ballydoyle horses in the Ballysax and may be looking to make the running today as well. Bellum Justum won the Blue Riband Trial so the track is not a worry but Ryan Moore tried to steal that race from the front on favourite Chief Little Rock so that may not be very good form. He could run well at generous odds but the second from his juvenile win, Inisherin, has gone sprinting. Euphoric chased home unbeaten stablemate Los Angeles in the Leopardstown Derby Trial having set out to make the running and it is hard to find grounds for him reversing that over the extra quarter mile when he is not going to get an uncontested lead. Los Angeles won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his second start, but stablemate Illinois was just behind there and Dallas Star beat that one more than five lengths. Sadly Arabian Crown is absent today but the horse that he thrashed at Sandown, Macduff, should be a big player over the extra two furlongs. I would not be surprised to see him involved in the finish for Rossa Ryan, who has been aboard for all four career starts. Can Dancing Gemini provide Epsom with the first home win in more than 90 years? He would be shorter odds if he were from a bigger yard but his second in the Poulains looks better than it probably is as that was a terrible renewal where a small blanket could have covered the first seven home and you have to look back a generation or two in his pedigree to see him wanting the extra half mile here. As a two year old he finished fifth in the Futurity, where Deira Mile was fourth and God’s Window third. Deira Mile returned with a facile victory in a novice race but will need a big step up on that today but those three also-rans from the Futurity have to reverse form with the winner that day Ancient Kingdom, the only Godolphin contender left standing. I have an ante post on Charlie Appleby’s colt but I do not think that I will be collecting. The waffle from Buick about the horse’s chances during the week has shortened his odds but there are too many “ifs and buts”. If Buick thinks he can bullsh*t then he needs to be taking lessons from O’Blarney, whose latest wonder horse City Of Troy now needs to emulate last year’s wonder horse. He stunk in the Guineas and I am not buying any of that rubbish about him getting upset in the stalls, blah, blah, blah. By the time they get to Tattenham Corner he will either be 100/1 or 1/100 on the exchanges. If it does not hose up by five lengths it should be in a tin of Irish Pedigree Chum by Sunday. On my notebook after Newmarket it is marked ‘Not Trained On’. I am sticking to my opinion and waiting to be proven wrong. If I did not have an ante post runner then the one that would have been of most interest is Ambiente Friendly. He should handle the track after his impressive win at Lingfield, where he slammed Illinois by more than four lengths eased up. My big problem is the owners’ decision to jock off Callum Shepherd. I could understand if they had got in a big name jockey with Derby experience but Rab Havlin has only ridden the race twice. I do hope that he wins for James Fanshawe and Havlin but I will be disappointed for Shepherd, denied his opportunity of a place in the history books and rewarded with an evening on the kitty litter at Lingfield (has three good chances).
Ancient Kingdom? Ever the pedant, but I think you mean Ancient Wisdom. The latter is my pick, but feeling a bit miserable after your pertinent comment that waffle from Wlliam Buick brought the price down during the week. Anyway, can't chicken-out now, and must hope that he finds a bit of speed to win this; he certainly should not want for stamina, especially with the Dalakhani influence on the distaff side. Good luck with your ante-post bet on Ancient W.
Can't understand why God's Window and Sayedaty Sadaty are blue across the board Couldn't back COT at those odds Reluctant to go against Ancient Wisdom Will stick with the unbeaten pair Voyage and Los Angeles On pure form Dallas Star looks over-priced at 40/1; Should finish in the first 6
I think only after today can you say that COT has or has not trained on. COT didn't go a yard at Newmarket, that's not a sign of not training on, in my view. I do know Coolmore are super confidant that all goes well today, they thought the same with Ylang Ylang yesterday but she was too far back and probably not good enough on the day. We will see around 4.45pm.
The (16:05) at Worcester, a Class-5 Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f on good ground, gives the Dunaden gelding, Thankyourluckystar, a decent wiinning chance. Well-treated at the weights and has been showing some fair form of late. Tabitha Worsley (3) on board for the Alastair Ralph yard. 13/2 (Wm.Hill/BetWay) top price early-doors, on the ATR site. E/W best option.
