It’s probably confirmation bias to think that the most successful team is being favoured. Objectively, the FIA has meddled in the championship a couple of times this rules cycle. Ostensibly for safety, but seemingly at Mercedes urging and in a situation where Ferrari and RedBull had the most to lose. Ultimately it seemed to not impact RedBull or Merc much at all but did hinder Ferrari. Particularly in a cost cap era, I personally believe that the rules should be stable and announced well in advance. In this situation I think Mercedes cleverly boxed the FIA into a corner, to get the outcome they wanted. I don’t see it as particularly biased behaviour from the FIA, more that Mercedes over the years have been successful at using legal means and their sway in the media to their advantage.
We have to get away from having one set of regs for x years, then wiping the slate clean and starting again, and somehow bring in changes incrementally to try keep the completion closer. Otherwise this is just going to be a situation that repeats again and again and again.
I sort of agree- but what I would also say is we’ve got to start to give teams a chance to test more or more development scope. Currently we have 3 days before a season, then we’ve reduced practice to 1 hour sessions, of which only one is in representative conditions. The budget cap I suppose gives people the same opportunity at the start of a regulation, but quite frankly the evidence is that it seems to lock in large parts of the competitive order for long periods. Arguments against that may be McLarens big jump last year- however they had identified that performance just before the season launch and so really that was just a late addition of what they should have nailed down earlier. Theres got to be something we can do to improve the development, but it’s a tricky one to balance against a budget cap. I don’t want it to all be about money but I do want opportunities for creativity and competition.
Fully agreed. F1 need to ditch the philosophy of doing nothing and waiting for natural convergence. It if happens at all, it's too slow for the normal F1 rules cycle. The sport can't wait a decade for Mercedes to catch Red Bull at the rate of a tenth per season When i look at the last 15 years, there's only been three classic seasons (2010,2012 and 2021), all of them involved minor but significant rules changes that helped the field close up. The years with a complete overhaul (2009, 2014, 2017, 2022) tend to be middling. At least it feels earned if a team nails the engineering challenge. The absolute worst years i can recall are the ones where the previous year already wasn't great and F1 elected to keep the rules stable (2015, 2020, 2023). Unless there's a real shock next week, 2024 looks set to join this list and i think it would be madness to do nothing about 2025.
Bahrain Round 1 Pecking Order 1) Red Bull- the whole paddock seemed to think their effortless day 1 time basically showed that they have loads left in the tank. The undoubted favourites and now it’s a case of hoping it isn’t absolute dominance. 2) Ferrari - the times and the data looks pretty positive for them. They’ve stayed quick on one lap and their long run data was solid- an eye catcher on C3 on day 3 I believe from LeClerc. Caveat is that Red Bull were experimenting by then so likely not enough to fight them, but a clear P2 as a minimum. LeClerc has been very happy this week and I’ve felt him almost try to play things down whilst being quietly pleased inside- all data Ferrari say shows clear correlation on track to what they did in the sim- a massive step considering how they felt last year. 3) Aston Martin A surprise pick to most, but they’ve played everything down. I’ve watched Alonso and Strolls behaviour and you can see great care being taken not to say much. The most we got from Alonso is that it’s a better car but that we don’t know relative to the steps forward of the others. Mike Krack has hinted at a couple of the “several” development projects in the background are very exciting. The car ran smoothly and easily through the test without being stretched- I think they’ll rock up 3rd next week and I think Bahrain suits them better than McLaren and Mercedes. This could flip at high speed tracks. 4) Mercedes I originally had them 5th until Russell’s Day3 running over race runs and one lap improved markedly. I tentatively say 4th as they may continue to dial in the potential of this new design. James Allison thinks their race runs are marginally ahead of Ferrari, but I just think he’s wrong and that the Scuderia have a little more up their sleeve for now, and that Aston are yet to play their hand. I just think we’ll see why Lewis has jumped ship- surely they won’t be in a title fight this year and based on what I’ve observed of Toto Wolff this past two years, he’s been completely rattled under pressure and has shown no leadership or dignity to me that suggests they can get back on the right footing in these regs. He’s blamed the regs, the competition, but hasn’t been able to be quiet when needed. The more I think about, he essentially inherited a Ross Brawn team and so the jury is out as to whether he can lead them back, especially with some key talent long since gone. 5) McLaren - This will alarm Macca fans at first and there will be a loud social media reaction come next week- I think they’ll be 5th in a really tight battle with Aston and Merc. However, to things- they’ve got significant performance in pipeline m, if we read between the lines from Stella’s comments - and they will also fair much better at high speed tracks. Bahrain hurts them but they’ll be podium fighting soon enough. 6- Visa Smooth test and car looks nice enough to drive. Don’t think it threatens the top 5 teams but for now jumps them in front of the remaining 4. Good driver lineup too, so should be fringe points with luck. 7- Sauber As they morph towards becoming Audi, James Key can lead them clear of the backmarkers but not too far up the grid just yet. Think they are ahead of Williams for now whilst Vowles and co get to grips with a few early issues. Also think they jump Alpine in the early season. 8- Alpine Another multi year plan begins. They openly admit they struggle early on this year whilst they put things in place. They “know where the stand”, which was ominous for an early struggle. Huge egg on the face for a works team. So much was promised when Cyril lead them as Renault. It just hasn’t gone anywhere. 9- Williams Theyll get on a good trajectory in the end but you sense they have had to take one step back to begin with this season to make the gains they want down the line. They’re using last years Merc rear suspension- will that dated part be a compromise? Lets see. 10- Haas Trying to solve their tyre issues but look to be a little behind on pure pace for now.
for me, talk is talk. someone says they have something in the pipeline and I think of many ferrari red faces Iver many years. show me is my response. I think the ferrari will shred tyres. I think the merc will be easy on tyres but draggy. I think the fake bull will be far quicker than people are giving credit to. I think mclaren will do OK. I think there's a reason why it's called alpine and not a Renault. going nowhere. I think Aston will struggle over the full course.
I'm still really unsure about Merc. I think they're behind Ferrari, but you just never know with them come race day. A lot is really going to depend on if Ferrari can get their act together on a Sunday, because they have been shambolic in every single department there. Ferrari's in race management has been beyond comprehension, poor pit stops, unfathomable driver errors at times, and a car that just hasn't been up to it. They have a lot to put right. No telling with Aston Martin. They may come out of the gates quicker, but can they keep up with Merc as they dial this car in?
Yeah agree- Merc were very difficult to read- as I say there were times I looked at them in the test and thought they were really, really struggling. But with hindsight I think they may have been testing the wider windows of setup for this new car and that may explain why they were so ragged. Friday Russell looked much more hooked up and to be fair to them they usually improve at a race weekend. In the flip side- have they really made much progress over two years? It’s a big ask to turn this around. Ferrari have got no-nonsense Fred Vasseur in the chair - he seems the sort of persona who can bring that measured approach to strategy and dare I say it- some calm and common sense. Their pre season impressed me- tyre deg is the key thing for us to watch out for with them. If it’s improved markedly, they can have a very good year. Im sure I saw an interesting graph a few days ago on tyre deg which seemed to look favourable for Aston Martin- il see if I can find it!
Just reading- Red Bull likely in a lower PU mode for their long runs on Friday as they were 10kph down on the straights compared to Ferrari and approx 6kph down on Mercedes powered runners. That may temper some of the Ferrari enthusiasm a little, however maybe they’ve just got a nice low drag/drag efficient car. Will soon find out. @moreinjuredthanowen - just wanted your view on this- do you see Saudi GP as a high speed corner circuit? On paper I thought so, but I’ve watched last years pole lap back and I’m not sure how many are really “corners”. Just trying to understand what the opening 3 races test in terms of car strengths. Suzuka is round 4 this year- hooray! That will show high speed strength for sure.
If RBR were dialing back the PU, we can truly kiss goodbye to what little hope of a championship fight we have. They're going to be devastating. Well, Max is going to be devastating. Perez doesn't have a hope in hell against the talent of Max and the obvious bias (understandably) in the team. (Putting that out in the hopes it comes to bite me on the arse.)
I see the jeddah track as a death trap mostly. yes it's a lot of high speed quasi corners. the run of curves if left right left right jinking and blind stuff at 200 mph where someone is eventually going to die. it's flowing rather than something like eau rouge or a parabolica. it is 100% low downforce. Bahrain is dull. there's 2 short sectors where it is 2 corners and a straight and then a long boring high downforce section. if red bull are that sell set up as they were massively quicker in that middlesector was they will win that in a canter aussie is high downforce and narrow. its all about quali unlike the olden days. the cars have outgoing the track. susuka is the same but one of my favourites. there's a real mix of corners here including 130r and the s curve and I look forward to this one
My thoughts exactly. I think that you could call the curves high speed sweepers rather than a corner and going into those blind bends at 200 mph is so scarery. The drivers certainly earn their pay at that track and somebody is going to get hurt there,but God forbid I hope no driver dies.
my worry is it doesn't need a breakdown, it only needs someone slowing down in front of a hot lap car to cause a massive issue one day
