please log in to view this image Swansea City v Leeds Utd 13th February@19:45 | Swansea.com Stadium Leeds head down to the South Coast of Wales on Tuesday evening, hoping to extend their 100% win record, in their bid for automatic promotion. The Whites have won all six of their league games this year, which has seen them leapfrog the Tractor boys, and close the gap on Southampton in second place. With a third of the season still remaining, all Leeds can do is to keep the pressure on the top two, and hope they slip up. please log in to view this image The two sides last met at the end of November, when goals from Piroe, Rutter and James cancelled out Jamie Patterson's first minute strike. Leeds currently sit 13 places and 27 points above their opponents! Joel Piroe, Joe Rodon, Connor Roberts and Dan James could all return against their former club. James has overcome the knock he picked up at Preston, and has been training on Monday. Jamie Shackleton (private reasons), Sam Byram (Hamstring), Karl Darlow (dislocated thumb), Pascal Struijk (groin strain) and Stuart Dallas (leg) are all ruled out for the visitors.
Tough midweek assignment but one we must win to keep the pressure on Southampton & ipswich. Interested to see what happens because if we perform as we should and secure the 3 points we might very well have solved our away day problems.
All 3 have 2 what could be tricky aways this next 5 days, games you'd normally expect 6 points from, Soton probably 4 being away to West Brom, but it's the Championship and anything can happen, going to be an interesting few days, won't decide anything either way but no one wants to slip up.
The concern for me is we're still not scoring enough goals away from home which leaves us vunerable to conceding against the run of play and dropping points. If we could start averaging 2 goals per game on our travels then we'd be absolutely fine. Think that's where the debate about Farke's patient style comes from as we allow so much of the match to pass without much happening.
It's an interesting debate though because without some sort of control the opposition would probably have more chances to score and especially when they are at home.
This is the first season,since a very long time, well after the first half dozen games or so, that my hearts not in my mouth every time we're attacked. Of course we have slip ups but we defend so much better as a unit now. The number of missed chances is certainly a worry though, we just done seem to have anyone that can blast in a 20 yarder.
Both teams like to string about 20 passes along the back line and both teams like to tippy tappy along the edge of the oppo’s area need an early Leeds goal to bring Swansea out. And then we need to be more clinical in front of goal than of late to finish them off.
Whilst what you are saying in simplistic terms makes sense, does it actually work out in reality. So far in the Championship only 1 team has managed to average 2 or more goals scored away from home and that is Leicester, who average 2.19 goals per game. A further 4 teams have managed to average more than 1.50 goals scored away from home, Middlesborough, Norwich, Coventry and Blackburn. However both Norwich and Blackburn have a negative away goal difference, so despite scoring a lot, they concede more. Middlesborough away goal difference is virtually equal whilst Coventry are doing ok scoring on average 1.6 goals away from home, whilst only conceding 1.40 away from home on average. Only 3 teams have scored more goals at home than ourselves so far this season, these being Ipswich, Southampton and Plymouth. Away from home Southampton have scored 1 more goal than ourselves, but conceded 2 more than us. Ipswich have scored 2 less away from home than us and also conceded 2 more. Plymouth are the Jekyll and Hyde team, despite scoring 36 goals at home, they have only managed to score 13 away from home. Despite having a goal difference from home games of 13, in total they have a negative goal difference of -1, having conceded 27 goals away from home In addition Leicester have the best away defence, together with ourselves and Sunderland conceding the same number of goals, at 15. Their average goal difference per away game is 1.25. The next best away goal difference after that is 0.33, which is ourselves. Southampton have the 3rd best goal difference away from home at 0.27 and Coventry have the fourth best goal difference at 0.20. This is despite them on average scoring 0.27 goals more per away game than ourselves, as they also concede on average 0.40 goals per game more than us when playing away. Sunderland despite having the equal best away defence, are the 6th lowest scorers of goals away from home and despite this have the same away goal difference as Middlesborough, who are the second highest scorers away from home. Both have an average away goal difference of 0.07. Norwich who are the joint second highest goal scorers away from home, have a negative goal difference of -0.31 Total average goals scored away from home = 1.23, we are averaging 1.33 Total average goals conceded away from home = 1.51, we are averaging 1.0
So having replied to Jammy's post with some data, lets have a look at the away games where points have been dropped. Birmingham - Strange game due to circumstances. We had more possession 39% - 61%, but had less shots than Birmingham both off and on target, a 0-0 draw probably would have been a fair result Hull - Opposite of Birmingham game. We had less possession than Hull, 57% -43%, but with only 4 shots from the 21 we took on target, compared to Hull's 9 shots off target, and their last minute 6 yard shot that cannoned off the post. Probably deserved to win, but our inability to get shots on target probably cost us, and trying to push for the win, left us vunerable at the back, and we ended up fortunate to get a point. Southampton - 3-0 down after 30+ minutes tells the story of this game. Possession wise we were equal, we created more chances, but only had the same number of shots on target as Southampton. Southampton were on control for most of the game, and were happy to remain composed and defend their lead second half, without taking any risks Stoke - Even possession, even number of chances both on and off target. Paddys missed penalty. Failure to get shots on target from both teams, we had 3 from 19 and Stoke had 4 from 12, suggest this was a 0-0 or a 1-0 win to either side Rotherham - this is probably the first game where you can say we actually dropped points. 74% possession, 23 shots, 5 of which were on target. Should have won, 2 points dropped. Sunderland - I didnt see this game so totally reliant upon just stats for analysis. Dominated possession 38%-62%. Sunderland had 14 shots, we had 16 shots, however again only 4 on target. Bit of a sucker punch game, but probably only deserved a point due to our wayward shooting and inability to break down a low blocking team Preston - Possesion virtually equal, we edged it slightly. Preston more shots off and on target than ourselves. Scrappy physical game, probably deserved a point, but again our inability to get shots on target doesnt help. WBA - Dominated possession 37%-63%. Both teams had 16 shots, but WBA had 3 on target and we had 1. Its a similar story, we have chances, but are we snatching at them, maybe we need to be more patient when attacking/shooting. Similar to the Sunderland game above, probably deserved a point. Whilst you could say that we should be scoring more goals, the fact is that in all of those games, we have had 111 shots off target and only 24 on target, so just over 80% of our shots miss the target. Of those 24 shots on target, we have scored 3 goals. So we have converted 12.5% of our shots on target into goals, just over 2% of our total shots on those games have been converted into goal. Other than the Southampton and probably the Hull game, the other 5 games, the home team were prepared to sit back and soak up our pressure Of the other 7 away games, which we have won, we have had a total of 139 shots of which 43 have been on target, so about 30%, but this has resulted in 17 goals scored, so about 39% conversion ratio for shots on target and 12% conversion ratio for total shots at goal. In those games, Cardiff and Bristol City were woeful, the other 5 games, the home team tried to play football,even if they weren't always successful. I made a post a couple of years ago, concerning goals scored inside and outside the penalty area. For every 100 shots inside the penalty area, a team would expect to score 13 goals, 22 will be saved and the other 65 will be blocked or miss the target totally For every 100 shots outside the penalty area, 3 will result in a goal, 22 again will be saved, whilst the remaining 75 shots will end up in the stands somewhere. On average a team should score a goal with every 8 chances from within the penalty area, compared to a goal every 33 chances from outside the penalty area So the away games that we have won this season, statistically we are bang on the number of goals that we would expect to score from the chances that we have had, and slighty ahead on the number of shots that are on target For the 8 away games where we have dropped points, we are actually in line with the expected results for shots outside of the penalty area. Now whilst we are all aware that we seem to have this affinity of trying to walk the ball into the net, and not taking a chance now and then, with teams that do sit back and soak up pressure then is it a fact that in those games we are making more attempts from outside the penalty area and thus why the number of goals scored from those chances are inline with the predicted data set. Honestly I have no clue, and am not going to rewatch all thosed games to see if all this correlates,but just found it interesting that when we are able to play our brand of football, our number of goals scored is on par with the expected number of goals scored from inside the penalty area, where as when we are up against a stubborn defence, our goals scored is inline with expected number of goals from outside the penalty area. Obviously in all those games where we have dropped points, its not because we are just shooting from outside the penalty area, I just found it interesting how much our data matched the against those expectations. Probably all coincidence, but hey it gives Jammy something else to read, he can even copy and paste the above into this coming Weekend Debate, see Jammy i'm helping you with content again
Would you like me to shoot you from inside the penalty area or from outside it. Your answer will affect the chances of success
Aski’s stats more or less back up what we see using the eye test. 1) we create a fair few chances but creating even more from inside the box is the best way to increase our goals scored. Notice the difference with Firpo creating high quality chances for our strikers by picking them out inside the oppositions penalty area. 2) shooting from outside the box is high tariff but it never seems to stop our supporters demanding more of it when in fact the answer is probably to do it less. Georginio for example has a fairly powder puff shot from distance but still takes them on. Looking forward to tonight when Rutter now smashes in a screamer
Re. the 20yd shots, I'm one of those who screams for them. It's amazing what a deflection can do for you. The more long shots, the more chance of a goal, either directly, or taking a hit off someone in the box. Bottom line - get it in the mixer whichever way you can, whether it's shooting for 20yds, or sclaffing a shot on goal.
20 yards yes but any further than that is usually just wasteful. Might help though if they could learn to keep the bloody thing below the height of the crossbar
I know they're protected by royal ascent but sorry my old hissers we need to wring your necks tonight ...no room for sentiment Charlie boy
What we need to do is go out there and show them who's the better team and that's us. We have hit form right at the correct time we can beat anyone in this division. Lets keep this run going because it will take us to where we need to be forget the rest if we keep winning we going up simple as that.
I read a few years ago that Man City’s players were under strict instruction by Guardiola to not under any circumstances shoot from outside the box. Don’t know if that’s still the case but they haven’t done too badly out of it.
