Under The Spotlight: Episode 5- Al Ferof [Foreword: I was hoping to come out of the Paddy Power Gold Cup with a potential new superstar to discuss but as much as Great Endeavour ran well, he didn’t strike me as one who will reach the very top, and therefore I have had to think about who should feature in this episode. I appreciate that I am yet to focus on the hurdlers, but as of yet there hasn’t been a massive amount of top class hurdle racing. I promise you that once the Fighting Fifth takes place this weekend, I will have articles being prepared. The Betfair chase needs no words from me- Kauto Star’s magnificent performance was a rare moment of magic and emotion, and he needs no introduction- he is the King of Spotlight!] I have sat back and weighed up the horses that have made a lasting impression on me since I wrote Episode 4 and, without any doubt, for me that horse was Al Ferof. I appreciate that some of you will be quick to crab the form and point out that it was just his first run, but there was a horse there that seemed to have all the ingredients I would want to see from a Paul Nicholls chaser, and one that excites me for the future. He has done little wrong for Nicholls, and it has to be said that with what seemed a particularly strong Supreme Novices hurdle last season, to have won that in the staying-on-style that he did means he possesses a lot of ability. He jumped really well on his chase debut at Cheltenham, looking assured, jumping better as the pace increased and beat a couple of decent sorts, cruising up past Astracad, rated 137, in what was a truly run race and finished with seemingly any amount in hand. The hugely exciting thing about Al Ferof for me personally is that, like Peddlers Cross, this is a horse who stays further and has the potential to progress up through the chasing ranks over the next 2, 3 or 4 seasons and perhaps have a seat at chasings ‘top table’. I think the running of the 2011 Supreme Novices bears out the point about distance, as he stayed on very, very strongly to beat a good field, with Spirit Son franking the form emphatically at Aintree a month later, and I suspect he will continue to do so this season as he bids to be a Champion Hurdle contender. Nicholls himself has been quite vocal about Al Ferof staying further, and he was intended to run over 2m 5f at the 2010 Paddy Power meeting with Nicholls saying ‘he definitely needs a trip’ and was touted as a staying hurdler rather than a Supreme Novice, so to show he had the speed for that was quite phenomenal and it stands him in really good stead if he wants to reach the top when taking on the best up in distance. The video of Nicholls touting him as a staying hurdler last season is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7565e0mTqo I don’t want to get carried away with comparisons but Kauto Star had a similar profile when starting out over 2m for Nicholls, winning the Tingle Creek twice and was actually sent off favourite for a Queen Mother Champion Chase before falling at the third in 2006, so whilst it is not a necessity to have excellent speed to be an excellent 3 miler (ask Denman!), it can come into use, particularly at the flatter tracks such as Kempton and Haydock Park. Which brings me to his target races this season. I personally have struggled to come up with a definitive answer as to what his target should be as a novice chaser, although I do think the RSA is a very gruelling race for a young novice, and according to interview after his chase debut, Nicholls seems to agree: "I'm really pleased with that because I wasn't convinced he'd be that good first time out," said Nicholls. "I wasn't sure how we would get on with his jumping. He fell in a point-to-point, he fell in a novice hurdle and he has been a bit brave at home so he has needed a lot of practice. "To see him jump round Cheltenham bodes well for the future. The main aim now is the Arkle and between then and now we'll get him a bit of experience and not necessarily aim him too high." http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/ne...enham-al-ferof-thrills-on-chase-debut/946933/ It brings me back to a point that Nicholls was very clear about when he was discussing Sam Winner’s prospects for the season, and that is that to win an Arkle chase, although it is 2 miles, you still have to be able to stay very strongly and I think that is Al Ferof’s biggest asset. Clearly Nicholls had some reservations about jumping, but he felt he would come on for the run and he said in his open day at the beginning of the season that Al Ferof is in much better shape this season as he came into last season late and way behind. I think they’ll be right on top of his fitness throughout the season, with the focus seeming to be getting him to jump intelligently as he was almost too brave when they started schooling him at home. They are not setting him any big targets between now and Cheltenham, and I think that is pretty sensible. The point is that they are already confident about his engine, as he has won a Supreme Novice hurdle, runs very well at Cheltenham, and stays on very strongly in his races. If they can fuse those two attributes with an immaculate round of jumping, I think they have a serious chaser on their hands. As always, I like to try and discuss the potential ante-post value of our Spotlight horses, but Al Ferof is a very tricky one as I know many on this forum are massive fans of Peddlers Cross and see him as very hard to beat. I am also a massive fan of Peddlers Cross and think he is the rightful favourite on both hurdles and indeed opening chase form, albeit marginally. I also think Al Ferof has an awful lot of improvement to offer and whilst I may be open to criticism and laughter at such an early stage, I have a feeling that should both continue to improve in their jumping and schooling, that they will progress together into 3m open chasing and do very well at it. They are certainly my two potential stars if I was forced to name any, though Peddlers is a safer option with his jumping at the moment. As big as 7/1 with some firms for the Arkle. If Peddlers Cross was not in the market, I’d absolutely be prepared to take that price. In saying that however, I think if both go into the race fit and well, if you backed both now at 5/1 and 7/1 respectively, I would imagine you would have a terrific chance and indeed good value of landing your bet for the Arkle. We have yet to see Sprinter Sacre, who likewise could be smart, but I fancy that Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will be staying on up the Cheltenham hill, jumping permitting, on their way to a crack at 3 miles in the future. There is something about Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof that I see and I just think they have the ability to both settle, quicken, and stay, and I think they are crucial attributes at the top level between 2 and 3 miles, and if they can jump smartly then they ought to have really bright futures over the next couple of seasons. Whether you agree, disagree, or indeed have a mix of both, feel free to discuss your feelings and as always, thanks for your time and patience. Cheers, -Top
Great write up Toppy. Far more impressed with his debut than PC,s.Hes the Best bet for the Arkle,unless there's something lurking that we haven't seen yet
I was so impressed by his debut that I had to swallow sentiment and lay back Peddlers in the Arkle. I've backed Al Ferof and now have the two market leaders in a healthy position against the field.
I must say that I was impressed with his fencing debut. For me, his jumping did not fall into the flawless category, but improved all the time which is obviously exactly what you want to see. He was a bit big and awkward at the first few but really warmed to his task as the race went on. The form of his Supreme win is a little untested I would say. Clearly Spirit Son won very well at Aintree, but that was beating much the same horses, and he was probably entitled to win as he did. Sprinter Sacre has not been seen since but should be making his chasing bow imminently. Cue Card finished 2nd at Aintree, and then won on his first start over fences before unseating behind Grand Crus. He had some very smart types in behind him first time up, including Silviniaco Conti, but the race was not run to suit that rival at all so I don't think too much can be read into that. The form is clearly very good indeed, but just how good remains to be seen. He has the pace for 2m, but as with many an Arkle winner, looks very much the staying chaser in the making. When Paul Nicholls was asked about potential Gold Cup candidates for the future he put forward Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof. That shows he is held in high regard, and that he will most likely want a trip in time. However, his performance in the Supreme, when staying on really strongly up the hill, suggests that he might be able to get away with the 2m trip of the Arkle this season, even if he would appreciate further. My concern with him is whether he will have enough pace for the race. It is well known that the Arkle is a race that suits staying types with an extra gear, and he might fall into that category. My concern is that he might just be up against a staying type with two extra gears. That horse is Peddlers Cross. They are, to a certain extent, quite similar in that they both have the pace for 2m but the stamina for at least 2m4f as well. My feeling is that Peddlers might just have the edge in the speed stakes. It must be remembered that he would have been a very impressive winner of an excellent Champion Hurdle if you take the exceptional Hurricane Fly out of the race. The form has received boost after boost since and there is no reason to doubt it whatsoever. He was a clear second best on the day, and I don't think there is any shame in getting outpaced by Hurricane Fly. You can be quite sure that he will not be facing a horse faster than the Hurricane in the Arkle. Al Ferof did very much win his Supreme with his stamina. All three of the principals he beat travelled into the race better than him, but none of them came up the hill anything like as strongly. I just worry that he is meeting a rival (Peddlers Cross) that will be capable of coming up the hill as well as he can, and with a little more toe to travel into the race easily. And, from what we have seen so far, Peddlers Cross looks to be flawless in the jumping department too. Paul Nicholls does now seem to be targeting the Arkle with him, but his previous comments about him possibly wanting further might be a slight concern. He may indeed want further, but, as we saw with Captain Chris last season, that is not necessarily an obstacle to Arkle glory. The problem is that this looks like being no ordinary Arkle so it might just take a horse with a touch more pace to win it this time around. The Arkle looks like being a terrific race at this stage but I strongly feel that it will take an exceptional performance to lower the colours of Peddlers Cross come March. Al Ferof looks the best of the rest at this stage and he looks a chaser of great promise in his own right. It would be no surprise at all to see him challenging for the Blue Riband in a season or two. As far as the Arkle goes, I can see him getting a little outpaced before staying on really strongly at the death. He might get past everything else, but I do think that Peddlers Cross will be in front of him at the line. A very exciting race to look forward to, and two very exciting horses too. Both have a whole feast of options ahead of them at the very highest level.
Good piece Toppy. Al Ferof won as an odds shot should considering his main market rival blewout.He jumped adequately and tbf did all that was asked of him.Much too early to even consider this performance as Arkle winning form. His trainer thinks he lacks scope.I'm going to watch and wait until he faces graded opposition although,like most of our novices,they will dodge each other until the festival. Much more clarity from across the Irish Sea where the main protagonists are rutting from the start of the season in graded events. No doubt it looks a strong division this year.Of all novices I have seen so far this term,Last Instalment has impressed me most even though he won't be an Arkle contender. Bubbling up nicely.
I picked Al Ferof as one of my Ten To Follow on this forum and i was hoping that we would see him as a Arkle contender by the time it comes round. So far im not put off... But i have also selected Peddlers Cross and to be honest its a bit like hedgeing my bets really... Great write up and it will be interesting as to see which one really improves and dos get to be the better 3 miler... Its something that will give us more to debate about in the future... Cheers Toppy... As ever a very good write up...
Very early in the season - indeed in their chasing careers but Al Ferof to me would be the pick of the two right now. Next season's Gold Cup - Long Run; Al Ferof; Peddlers Cross & Grands Crus perhaps - and with that Bobs Worth & Sprinter Sacre haven't started yet!!
excellent write up, i was quite taken with his debut win however i think he is going to have to ply second fiddle to peddlers cross come march. Peddlers cross was rated far the best over hurdles and since they both jump fences well (or at least so far) it would be ridiculous to assume that al ferof would improve past peddlers cross, from a betting point of view (howevber not impossible). I think the form of last seasons champion hurdle is top notch and peddlers cross is the only horse i have seen give hurricane fly a proper proper race, and i think that horse is the second coming lol Anyway i have backed peddlers from 14's down on betfair and i am employing the old famous technique of backing it each week to build up a substantial bet. Whatever happens i think the arkle is going to be the race of the festival and i expect al ferof to be right there battling.
Two novices for the season are Al Ferof and Bob's Worth. Al Ferof will tear Peddlers Cross apart when they meet, we can rename him Peddles Back after the race.
