Keep getting drawn to Wymott running off 10-2 but the Nicholls' yard seem to be very bullish over 1833 & Michel Le Bon! It may not be as high profile line up as last season but you could make a good argument for nine or ten of them IMO!
Every time I look at this race I keep coming back to Aighteenthirtythree, buuuuut.... I wasn't very taken with the run behind Somersby in the Graduation Chase, in which Henrietta's horse swept him aside pretty easily. He'll have to come on a lot from that run, but I suppose they expect him to, and Nicholls has a great record in the race. Great Endeavour has a lot of negatives, most notably the trip, but I can't cross him off my list either, as he looks genuinely progressive. If he can find his rythm early on he could be hard to keep out the frame.
I can't be having Ainteen Thirtythree, he is terribly handicapped, won a couple of races that fell apart, by long distances, but got his commuppance in the RSA. Can't be having Michel Le Bon either, one race over fences, and people are backing him at a single figure price for the Hennessy, do me a favour. Great Endeavour will probably go close, but I just feel there are a few others, better handicapped. Planet Of Sound has a good chance, I think he is well handicapped, a grade 1 winner running off 158 is tempting but the horse i like the most is Wymott, he was already beaten in the RSA after a mile, so I'm happy to take the view that he wasn't right that day. The rest of his form is very good, and I feel he could be a stone well in here, so he would be my best bet
I like Wymott showed alot of promise before the RSA and I backed him E/W before Cheltenham at 14/1 never showed any interest at Cheltenham and pulled up lame with injury, My concern is he's had no prep run since Cheltenham for the Hennessy, But Donald McCain seems confident in the horses he's running of a handy mark so maybe one to shortlist . Paul Nicholls seems bullish about his two and defeat for 1833 seems out of the question, Hes got a good record in the race so its worth noting. 1833 had no excuses in the RSA, Was comfortably beaten. But I think he is still a horse with promise, I expect him to run a big race and Ruby rarely chooses the wrong one. Michel Le Bon hasn't been seen on a course for 2 years his price in the market is ridiculous. I think Great Endeavour E/W is probably the bet of the race, Hacked up in the Paddy Power and is running off a decent handicap....
I'm struggling to forgive Wymotts RSA run, did connections ever come up with an explanation for the lacklustre performance ?
"The seven-year-old was pulled up in the RSA Chase on his final start last season but was found to have a small fracture to the top of his cannonbone following the race." From Sporting Life
My selection is Great Endeavour Although a there are questions over the stamina that is the only question there is of him for a horse that showed some of the promise there was about him when winning the PP gold cup. I cant have 1833 no-one really knows how good he really is yes he has ruby on board but unlike Great endeavour he has not really proved his favouribility for this race! the same for Michel le bon who hasnt raced for over 700 Days. The main Danger I could see coming from is Beshbar won the scottish Grand National so he obviosuly has the stamina and is not carry alot of extra weight so imo will be there, there about and @ 14/1 is abit of e/w value!
Oddy - did they not confirm that injury was sustained late in the race though ? I may be wrong but I thought they said he probably gained the injury when he made a mistake half way round....
Starting to quite like Carruthers at a big price. If you take out Diamond Harry and Burton Port, who were clearly very well handicapped last year, then he finished a close up 4th. Is sure to stay and is 10lb lower this year. Connections also report the horse to be in much better form this year and his seasonal reappearance was pleasing enough.
For those who aren't aware Paddy Power are paying 5 places in the Hennessy, they're also joint/best price about 9 of the field. 1833 seems to drifting like a barge but I've taken the 7s with PP each way as I may not be around in the morning. Good luck all
Like a lot of other people I was impressed by the effort of Great Endeavour at Cheltenham. I think he'll probably get the trip, but there may be others who can get it quicker. It's unfair to say that only the winner gets the trip. The winner often has more ability. But I've had a look at the past winners of the race, and most of the time, the race is won by something with next to nothing on it's back. The problem is that there are so many of them. So I settled for the bottom one Qhilimar at any old price. Great Endeavour and Quilimar.
I was thinking this same thing. Not sure how the ground will ride today, and I'd be happier if there'd been rain, but 3m2f is probably the minimum he wants. Newbury suits him, and he's now looking well handicapped. With 10st 4lbs on his back he'll think he's running free.
For me tullamore dew e/w is worth a shout, unknown about distance but i feel this one could surprise. cheers
i have a soft spot for wayward prince as he won for me at aintree.that day he was miles behind and stayed on to take it from 2 rivals who battled each other for along way and got tired.he isnt blessed with speed by any means,but is a strong stayer .it was almost the same story at cheltenham where he again stayed on well after looking like he would be a remote 3rd or 4th,but the front 2 faded as he caught up with them. he also as some strong stats in his favour being 2nd season chaser,ran in the rsa and mildmay and a grade 1 winner over hurdles as well as being in the first 4 of the market. the extra distance and likely fast pace are well in his favour and a big galloping tack suits the stayer more than the likes of sharp aintree.in fact on left handed galloping tracks he is 12113 so each way for me. planet of sound as well seems to go well on big tracks like newbury and puchestowns and all 5 wins have come on tracks with big circumferences and at tight tracks been well beaten and even decent size course not as good as the really big ones. great endeavour to me wont stay.he likes to race prominent and take over after halfway.he will surely be doing to much if he races like that in this and simply not get home.you would think he will be held up to get the trip,but he was at aintree and ran a stinker,so to me he doesnt like it if hes behind early and must race close up for him to be interested. at the festival after losing ground,murphy got him back to the near front after 4 or 5 fences,so i assume murphy thought then there no point in going to plan b and holding him up.when he fell he was been ridden after losing the lead on the home bend and he didnt actually touch the fence which suggests it was tiredness that contributed to his fall,and tiredness due to lack of stamina.obviously hes well in on the figures,but i can see him being in contention in the home straight but not doing much after 3 from home.
had 1st - thanks to Zenyatta (changed my mind from Beshbar to him) also had 2nd e/w - thanks to pricewise! for once my changing my mind at the last minute has paid off! The amount of times I wish i had stayed with my 1st choice!
Glad I gave you the winner. I was intending to back Carruthers on course at around the 16 or 20/1 mark. He was never much bigger than 10s so I left him alone. Needless to say he goes and romps it! Nice to see I'm better than Pricewise.
