Great article again Toppy- But i am finding it hard to go against Long Run for both the King George and the gold cup. As you say the opposition is looking a little weak. There are couple who could challenge but it is hard to look past him. Like TFR Long Run he likes abit of juice in the ground! but now december if it was anything like last year the ground will be hard and who knows what the weather will be like in march , with the year we have had probably 25C blazing hot so it will also be hard in march for the GC but for 2 different reasons! lol So it is hard- 16/1 is a good e/w price as I reckon if the ground isnt too hard he will be up there, it was just a shame Diamond Harry pulled out on saturday as he is horse I rate very highly! but good article toppy as always!
I would like to see an article about Binocular- from the sounds of it on the old 606 he didnt have many fans, but i am big fan of him!
1. I slightly believe that Time For Rupert has benefited from finishing second to Big Buck's in the 2010 World Hurdle. However, as we all know, daylight was second, and Time For Rupert merely won the race contested by the remainder, admittedly in good style. For this reason i have never really been excited about him as a chaser. Whilst he won his novice chases well he never looked a potential Gold Cup horse to me, and still doesn't. 2. I was desperately trying to find a horse to oppose him with in the RSA because i thought he was far too short a price. In the end it was a no bet race for me because i couldn't come up with a viable alternative. The RSA was a race that i thought was poor before the off and the result absolutely confirmed this view in my own mind. They all finished in a heap, and, in a novice championship race, that can never be a good sign. Usually they are all average rather than all good and i think this is the case on this occasion. 3. I agree with you TopClass that he is better with a bit of cut, but do think that he is capable of handling a quicker surface too. On the book, his World Hurdle effort is probably the best of his performances and that was on good ground. 4. I also agree that he is a horse that lacks a change of gear. As i showed in a previous post of mine, horses that run over shorter in their Novice days tend to end up challenging for the Gold Cup later in their career, rather than the staying novices who inevitably find some of horses stepping up in trip too quick. Time For Rupert falls into the out and out stayer category and for me he lacks the necessary class to be a Gold Cup contender. He doesn't travel well enough and he doesn't quicken. He's a stayer and a galloper who just keeps plugging on. He has place prospects no doubt but i'd be disappointed if a horse like him could win a Gold Cup. 5. With the above points in mind i am prepared to be bold in the Gold Cup market. The current Betfair (back prices) is as follows: Long Run 3.2 - Reigning champ and big chance again Time For Rupert 16 - Eliminated for the reasons above. Master Minded 21 - Non-stayer Weird Al 20 - Still question marks in my mind Captain Chris 20 - Huge chance in my book Diamond Harry 22 - Track doesn't suit Bostons Angel 27 - RSA was a bad race Wishful Thinking 25 - Stable prefer Captain Chris Denman 32 - Too old Mon Parrain 32 - Possible but unknown Jessies Dream 40 - RSA bad race Quel Esprit 65 - RSA bad race Burton Port 44 - Possible but still masses to prove and surely not better than Long Run anyway Quito De La Roque 27 - Eliminated for reasons explained in his 'Spotlight' thread Kauto Star 50 - Too old, though it pains me to say it. Pandorama 60 - Needs it heavy/unraceable Aiteen Thirtythree 65 - Not sure the track plays to his strengths Midnight Chase 48 - Not good enough Somersby 42 - Not quite top class and trip concerns Rubi Light 44 - Improving but not one for me I am therefore left with a list of Long Run, Captain Chris, Mon Parrain. Long Run has the proven form in the book and i think that Captain Chris and Mon Parrain are both horses of huge potential, though they still have to prove themselves up to that level. Both Long Run and Captain Chris were winners over 2m as Novices at Graded level and Mon Parrain has shown an ability to travel at shorter distances too. Mon Parrain has a lot to prove still but his jumping was exceptional last season and he is a horse that i'm excited about. But the one for the Gold Cup at this stage is Captain Chris. He returns today and i expect him to make a winning reappearance. He seems sure to improve for the step up in trip and listening to Richard Johnson on At The Races he seemed very confident that 3m was well within his compass and also suggested that he had a very good chance of staying the Gold Cup trip too. He is a horse with the necessary class and ability who has the potential to improve over further. He has always been a stayer in the making and i think it is a testament to his ability that he has been able to do so well over shorter trips. In Mark Howard's excellent publication One Jump Ahead Phillip Hobbs suggests that either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup are possible targets but i hope thay go for the latter because i felt he was getting away with 2 miles last year and 3 miles is what he wants. He could well be exceptional. The staying novices and current challengers to Long Run's crowns are 160 performers in my opinion. Captain Chris has 170+ written all over him when he steps up in trip. For me he is worth the risk that backing him comes with. To me he is the biggest potential challenger. There are probably others who are more likely to 'run a decent race' but none more likely to beat Long Run in my view. So there you have it. You heard it here first. Captain Chris as the biggest danger to Long Run in the Gold Cup (and the King George). I appreciate that some of the reasoning is sketchy at best and open to ridicule, and some of the judgements harsh but i think the staying division is wide open to a horse of potential and Captain Chris looks the one for me.
Zen Interesting views on the RSA. I made it a decent heat last season and wouldn't be at all surprised if the 2nd or 3rd (Jessies Dream and Wayward Prince) were to win a Grand National - I don't see them as having the class for a Gold Cup and they both appear to be all about stamina - strangely the winner I rate as the least likely to go onto better things. Of the last four runnings of the race only Weapon's Amnesty was run in a quicker time (3 secs) and when Cooldine destroyed his field (slightly slower ground) his time was 7 secs slower) and when Albertas Run won in 2008 on similar ground he took 8 secs longer. Times are not everyone's cup of tea of course but I don't believe the 2011 renewal was weaker than other years...
I don’t think there was a more maligned horse on 6-0-6 than dear old Binocular (with the possible exception of Barbers Shop) and you could probably have counted his ‘fans’ on one hand. Never understood this attitude as he has proved himself a star and a real ‘top table’ performer. Certainly one of my faves of the millennium. Personally, I would be by no means shocked if both Binocular and Barbers Shop relived ‘past glories’ and both won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2012. Looking at those CGC quotes I would say that the market has got the race about right. Nothing leaps off the page to me as being outstanding value in the race at the moment.
SBC - I don't think it was the horse that was maligned, I think the comments were more aimed at those who were responsibile for him and whose integrity appeared to be under permanent debate.
I should clarify my position because i think we are in total agreement! I am not for one minute suggesting that the RSA was a bad race in the context of national hunt racing and i can certainly see the participants picking up a nice race or two down the line. What i am saying is that it was a bad race in the context of throwing up a potential Gold Cup contender. Like you i think they were more the staying types and lack the necessary class to take a Gold Cup. And for that reason i am focussing on the shorter novice division headed by Captain Chris, who looks a definite candidate to step up to the plate at 3m.
Time for Rupert is still a 'live one' for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in my book. Saturday's run was very satisfactory for a sesaonal reappearance and his jumping at times was wonderful, sure to hold him in good sway for March! I happen to think the staying novices that ran in last year RSA are a good bunch and a few could certainly be players in March albeit preferring softish going. In terms of measuring last years novices against the seasoned horses it's still remains to be seen where the upper hand lies. Lets be frank about last years Gold Cup, the form of that race is looking more and more ropey. Is there still not a horse to have come out of it and won since?! Long Run's crown doesn't sit that firmly for me... beating dad's army in similar style to the way Imperial Commander did in 2010?!
I was just about to correct that Tam having just spotted it when looking for something else, only to notice you already had. Cheers. I think I'm going senile. For years I had been under the misapprehension that Dancing Brave won a maiden at Yarmouth as a 2yo and I also was sure that a horse beginning with B had progressed from winning a handicap off 10 stone something to winning a Gold Cup in the same year. I had in my mind it was Bragnet (or something like that) but when I looked up the Gold Cup winners there was no such winner so I thought maybe it was Bregawn. But as you say he won the Hennessy under 11.10.
Are we thinking of the same interview? Because if so I think it seemed more to me that what he said meant that Captain Chris stood a very much better chance of staying the Gold Cup trip than Wishful Thinking does - I'm not entirely convinced he sounded confident of any more than that it'd be better than Wishful Thinking? That said, I agree about Captain Chris as regarding the King George, just don't think he'd have enough for the Gold Cup - Long Run stays like a machine, and whilst he might get beat for pace at Kempton, at Cheltenham over the extra distance, I'm not convinced. Mon Parrain could be anything though. As for Time For Rupert - I agree entirely. Good horse, but never going to win a Gold Cup (and now I've said that so confidently, I better hope I'm not wrong)
Quite possibly. I did think he sounded fairly confident though. I'm not saying he was bullishly stating that he 'will' get the trip, just that he thought he had a very good chance of doing so. For a horse that has never been further than 2m5f that must say something. I might have interpreted it a little differently than you through my rose tinted glasses!
After his 3 runs this calendar year is Time For Rupert turning into the new Punchestowns?!? Both were 2nd in a World Hurdle, both were lauded as the ‘reincarnation of Pegasus’ as they commenced their chasing career, both started out over fences nicely, before both then ‘failed’ to make the leap to the next level in both the RSA Chase and their initial runs in ‘open’ company. As my regular readers will recall I urged Mr Henderson to return Punchestowns to hurdles as he was phenomenal in this sphere and wonder if connections of Time For Rupert are now considering such a move. Over hurdles he was challenging at the very, very top but after Saturday it appears that Time For Rupert will never do the same over the big ‘uns. Where they go next with Time For Rupert will surely take some pondering for connections.
I said this earlier in the thread and I still think it. Time For Rupert has always, in my book at least, been a bit overrated on the back of finishing 2nd to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. I don't think his and Punchestowns situations are the same though. I suspect Punchestowns was the best hurdler, by a fair margin too, but he was never a good jumper of a fence and so never scaled the same heights over fences. In contrast Time For Rupert is a decent jumper of a fence so I would expect them to persevere over the larger obstacles and I see no reason why he cannot be as good over fences as he was over hurdles. I'm not sure where they go with him but I would be surprised if they returned to hurdles. I think he probably just benefited from a weak staying hurdler division, which, Big Buck's aside, lacked any real strength in depth. I don't think he is good enough to win any of the top staying hurdles and neither is he good enough to win any of the top staying chases. Still a good horse and there are sure to be opportunities for him. Something like the Argento Chase would appear ideal. My suspicion is he is just not quite up to dining at your 'Top Table' in either discipline Sir Barney.
I think any horse who finishes second to Big Bucks will always be overated as the winner will never scoot clear and confirm his sureriority, the horse has a mind of his own and will invariably do just enough. The real head scratcher is that he ran 9 hurdle races over 2 seasons, had he been a natural chasing prospect they would have spotted this long before his 9th hurdle race for me. I backed him for a place on Sat and though I thought he jumped OK for the most part, when the race really got going at the end of the back straight he was found wanting and came up short. I do think Kauto's performance was sensational and Long Run wasn't fully wound up, and that there'll be softer grade 1s available for him, but I also think he's in the region of a stone inferior to the very best and therefore needs a huge number of things to fall his way if he's to win a big race
You have to remember though (and I'm not defending him, as he simply hasn't been at a level to suggest he'll quite begin threatening to make the frame in top company) that he hasn't really had conditions in his favour yet. He's had a very flat 3 miles on what has been pretty good ground for this time of year. I'd reserve judgement to see if he can run a couple of crackers on soft ground on a tough course. I think they got tactics all wrong on Saturday, the pace was there to be dictated and they missed their chance. Kauto Star taught them a bit of a lesson. Not sure which sort of races he could target next?
Top - and that's the issue with very good horses who fall just short of top class, they're handicapped up to the eyeballs and always vulnerable to an improver, yet not good enough to beat the very best.
TIME FOR RUPERT has come out of his exersions at Haydock in good form. As you can imagine there has been plenty of 'in-depth analysis' of the race, which was for 'RUPERT' a real baptism of fire. The most important thing is to pay plenty tribute to Kauto Star and his connections. A seriously wonderful performance by remarkable horse. As expected 'RUPERT' found the track too sharp and the company too good. I'd hoped that he would not be beaten by more than 10 lengths whoever won the race, but he was beaten by 25, so we have to be a little disappointed and deflated. We do feel that Cheltenham suits 'RUPERT' best, but do not hallucinate that he can make up that much ground. I understand that he is most unlikely to win the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup, but as he is only seven years old, who knows what the future may still bring. Having said that, the battle for third and fourth in The Gold Cup could be wide open and it is our aim and belief that 'RUPERT' will get into that hallowed winner's enclosure in March, just where he stands, we'll have to see! His next race will be a 'Graduation Chase' at Newbury on 14th December, for horses that have not won more than two chases, an ideal opportunity for him. thats paulwebbers version of time for rupert. to be fair he did state the track wasnt ideal beforehand,but i for one think the track was not the only reason. haydock is not that dissimilar to wetherby, to me he was beaten very early on.he didnt lead for long and the jockey gave him some early niggles as well before being ridden by halfway.he never traveled that well for that long to suggest that the 25 length beating is the best he can do,especially with weird al beaten 10 lengths and with the expectation he would improve for his seasonal debut,so something doesnt seem right to me.if he got beaten 25 lengths where he was in contention say about half a furlong from home and then got outpaced due to the lack of uphill finish then i would think thats the best he could do but he was beaten to early.
Very nice to see the horse getting a confidence boost today BUT given his current mark of 156 I would have been severely tempted to have a crack at the Welsh National with him. I think he could have got a nice weight there around 11st 4lbs and the trip is within his stamina. He jumps superbly and loves juice in the ground and surely that would be a more realistic target than the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Grand National, on ground considerations alone? I reckon connections might have missed a trick there - if he wins the Argento and gets close to the principals in the CGC they will surely put him up to 165ish - which will probably rule him out of handicaps.
He is too young and open to too much improvement to go down the National route just now. You wouldn't want to bottom a horse like TFR in the Welsh slogfest. Leave it to the grinders I say. I still maintain that he could run a big race in the CGC, it hardly looks the deepest of races this season.
I think he already looks like a "grinder" Nass - but a very good one. A beautiful jumper of a fence and a sound stayer, for me he just lacks the gears to be competitive at the very top level. I think it will be either Grade 2 or Grade 3 WFA races or the top handicaps for him. I'd like to hope Webber has the next 2 years mapped out for him - looks like the Argento and Gold Cup this season but I'd love to see him tackle the Hennessey next season and then maybe the Welsh National or maybe the Racing Post Chase (not sure if Kempton would suit him though).
