they've a budget and a time in wind tunnel reduction so I sincerely doubt they can revolutionalise under these regs again. each car they've done is evolution.
Newey has enough experience with ground effects and likely plenty of data from the track to have a few tricks up his sleeve. We're two seasons in to this cycle. One could argue that their performance advantage is way superior to what Merc and Hamilton enjoyed, and there was only competition for Merc from outside the of their own team when the Merc concept was nerfed in 2021. If the others couldn't catch Merc without intervention in that period, I find it difficult to think that the rest of the field will suddenly be competitive at the beginning of 2024 when RBR have shifted focus many weeks ago. Granted, a lot of the Merc advantage came from the power unit during that time, which is difficult to reel in given the stupid regs that almost effectively lock in an advantage, but RBR have Newey who is beyond doubt the best aerodynamicist on the grid, and I don't see anyone out thinking him and are simply limited to trying to emulate what he's doing. I absolutely hope I'm 100% wrong, I really do. I just don't see it.
the rest of the field? no. one team? probably. this is about drag v down force. this is about shredding tyres with traction and stiffness the red bull has created stability and long suspension travel that other teams are now copying rapidly. this not only helps with ground effect but also tyre wear. ferrari has basically stood still and is being walked past by merc and mclaren as both have made suspension advances. the red bull has ample ground effect so is focus on less and less drag. other cars like mercs look crap compared to the red bull but every inch of what reduced drag is visible and copyable. imo convergence is possible and inevitable. I sincerely doubt that red bull and turn up with some zero pod ultra stable zero drag car so next years car is likely to be another evolution of where they are. I genuinely think that ferrari engine might just be better than the Honda but I really think we won't see it come to the fore. it will be mclaren or mercy to compete.
The stability of the car is the key part of Red Bull's advantage as it factors in to so much. Setup, corner entry/exit speeds, tyre wear, overall driver confidence, but that stability and predictability is coming from a complete package that the others are yet to get close to. Red Bull can rock up at almost any given track and be dialed in before they get there, where as the majority of the competition are left trying to get their cars in to a solid performance window it seems and their performance can swing wildly from week to week.They're not close to this level of consistency and predicability, while RBR are in a position to refine and improve their package. It feels like the rest are going to be a step or two behind for a while. If anybody is going to make the leap and be a contender to RBR next season, I'd put my money on Macca at the moment, because they have worked miracles with their car this season. I wouldn't have imagined they could improve so much and hoping they have a lot more to bring over the winter, for all our sakes.
Those hoping to see a different champion next year are likely to be disappointed, but I don’t see the same level of dominance next year. To be honest what I think we’ve seen this year is a good car ruthlessly exploited by team and driver in a way we’ve never seen before. Certainly not on such a consistent basis. We saw in Singapore, how easily and far it can fall when it’s not in it’s window, when in the Merc era or the Ferrari era did we ever see their cars fall to 4/5th and be a second off the pace? Merc have regularly said they’ve felt like they’ve matched RedBull for race pace this year and will improve now they’ve decided which concept to follow. As others have said McLaren, while not quite there yet, seem to have a handle on these regs now. - they’re consistently close and seem to be able to regularly bring performance. Both should win races next year.
I do hope there are 4 teams capable of winning next year. Then it is more down to the driver and how the dice fall. I want to believe Ferrari will field a good car next year and the team will offer up better strategy. Merc just went Awol these last 2 years. We seem to have got away from the engine developing team having an engine advantage over its customers. If Max faces tough competition next year I wonder if he will lose his cool and start his on field antics again. It will be nice to watch a race without knowing the winner from the outset. I hope it is not only the first race of the season that we have that experience and not only the first 5 laps. I will go sailing for the rest of the year if it is.
The question is, who else did this once they'd figured out the Red bull? Ferrari and Aston look like they have gone backwards, but have they just stood still? Have they made a few upgrades to see how it works and are happy to slide down the table a bit so they get that extra wind-tunnel time to upgrade next years package better? As to Newey, he couldn't touch the mercs until the FIA destroyed Mercs aero package with 5 years of constant rule changing to slow them down. Also, everyone is forgetting how they let Honda upgrade their engine, after the so-called engine freeze, so they could make it more reliable, even though it wasn't the most unreliable engine. Afterwards it was one of, if not, the best, engine on the grid. IMO the FIA, in a bid to make F1 more competitive, have done the complete opposite.
I was hoping there would be somewhere where we can see each teams upgrades by race, but it seems that doesn't exist anywhere. If I have some spare time I may go through each event and compile It myself.
I thought that this year the teams where supposed to release a list of what they had changed and why plus the opportunity for the media to have a close look? From what I have seen either it didn't happen or the media didn't decide there was anything we wanted to see? It would be good to see who brought updates through the season.
