Honestly, I don’t see Alonso moving next year as I don’t see it making sense for any party. 2-5 in this year’s championship must all expect to be close next year, and I think it’s hard to argue that Aston don’t have the weakest driver pairing of those teams. If you take Alonso out of that, then (given none of the Merc, Ferrari or McLaren drivers or Verstappen will move) there’s no possible outcome that guarantees they come out of that stronger. Even to entertain it therefore you’re talking lots of money to Aston and then Alonso is going to command a sum bigger than any other available driver also, all to get someone who only needs to be able to regularly come second in what should be the best car. The realistic appeal of the seat is that if you do well you might win some races, but that it’s unlikely to make you a championship contender, so I think you’re really looking at the Albon’s, Gasly’s, Ocon’s and whether you think they would be better than Perez/Ricciardo. Of those I see Alex as the most viable
Being the other driver at RBR is a poison chalice. No driver worthy of shot at the championship will partner Verstappen. RBRs problem. A strong rookie is their best option.
I do wonder if they are considering Yuki. Red Bull don't contract their drivers to either specific team so they can just switch them between teams when they want, Max being an exception I would guess. That way Danny could lead Torro Rosso or what ever they are calling themselves this week, with Lawson in the rookie seat. With Perez leaving / being a 'development' driver depending on the contract cost.
I honestly can't think of who I'd hire in Red Bull's position. They're after a driver who's very quick but won't psychology ruin themselves trying to copy Max's style like their last three second drivers have. Ricciardo just had his own mental collapse against Norris and Tsunoda doesn't strike me as mature enough to cope. Only other option would be to poach one of the top drivers and embrace the chaos of having two number 1 drivers.
I think of the 3 parties (Alonso, Aston, Red Bull) I can argue that it makes sense for at least two of them, and maybe the third depending on circumstances. Alonso: I think the move makes sense for him if he's serious about a WDC. It's his best chance of one in the limited number of seasons he has left. I don't think Verstappen would block it, he almost seems bored of the lack of challenge from his teammate, and I can't see Alonso shying away from that challenge, even if he has to promise to fight cleanly and agree to be a #2 driver if the championship situation demands it of him - he'll back himself to be ahead. Aston: I think it makes sense if they're losing Stroll, because outside of Lawson the pool of available drivers is pretty weak this off-season. Trading Alonso for Perez and Lawson gives them an experienced, familiar team leader, and a young prospect I'm presuming they'd get a multi-year deal for. Stroll could be replaced with Lawson regardless, but beyond that? Red Bull: Replacing Perez significantly strengthens their WCC chances if other teams are closer next season, right now, I don't think it's unfair to say Perez is statistically the worst teammate to a WDC in 25 years (workings below). The only driver who comes close to being outperformed as badly as Perez in 2023...is Perez in 2021, where Red Bull didn't win the WCC. 2 of his 3 seasons at Red Bull would be a big issue for a 2024 constructor's title fight. They aren't poaching from Ferrari, Mercedes, Mclaren, Gasly and Albon have been burned before, and do they want to make the mistake of promoting Tsunoda too early and having him drown under the pressure less than 6 months in? _________________ As an aside, I think the stats on Perez's season are so bad, I think you have to consider him a liability for 2024. 2023 stats: Average grid: 7.12 (Max 3.35) Average finish: 4.69 (Max 1.35). And I think he might be the worst teammate to a WDC in at least 25 years? Average finish positions (all excluding DNS/DNFs, whether mechanical or driver error) 1998: Hakkinen 1.92, Coulthard 3.17 1999: Hakkinen 2.09, Coulthard 3 2000: Schumacher 1.62, Barrichello 2.85 2001: Schumacher 1.53, Barrichello 3.93 2002: Schumacher 1.41, Barrichello 2.33 2003: Schumacher 3.55, Barrichello 3.60 2004: Schumacher 2.12, Barrichello 3.12 2005: Alonso 2.41, Fisichella 5.0 2006: Alonso 1.94, Fisichella 4.63 2007: Kimi 2.6, Massa 3.67 2008: Hamilton 4.41, Kovalainen 6.0 (Kovalainen finished 7th in the championship, I was surprised he wasn't the worst on this measure too) 2009: Button 3.56, Barrichello 4.56 2010: Vettel 3.63, Webber 4.0 2011: Vettel 1.56, Webber 3.53 2012: Vettel 4.42, Webber 6.17 2013: Vettel 1.61, Webber 4.5 2014: Hamilton 1.41, Rosberg 2.53 2015: Hamilton 1.72, Rosberg 3.06 2016: Rosberg 2.25, Hamilton 2.11 2017: Hamilton 2.70, Bottas 2.95 2018: Hamilton 1.95, Bottas, 3.89 2019: Hamilton 2.38, Bottas, 2.68 2020: Hamilton 1.88, Bottas 4.31 2021: Verstappen 1.84, Perez 6.6 2022: Verstappen 2.95, Perez 4.1 I've highlighted the three seasons where the WDC had an average finish position less than 1.5, I think it highlights just how dominant Verstappen has been, and as yet 0 DNFs (Schumacher didn't DNF at all in 2002 either)
RBR will not allow anyone to challenge Max in case he jumps. Perez was challenging Max earlier this year, now he is the worse driver on the grid. Perez helped Max to his first WDC and was praised for his skill. Now he is suddenly the worse driver on the grid. Monaco last year, realistic challenger earlier this year. I think it is political, nothing less. It has destroyed Perez in the process. I blame RBR, the poison chalice. No ambitious driver will succeed there while Max reigns.
I would say no driver other than Red Bulls No1 driver will succeed - look at Vettel and Webber, ok so webber might not have been as good as seb but he was always the no2!
I heard Newey say it was 25 cars he has designed that have won championships. That is in essence all the cars other than those driven by Schumacher and Lewis since 1983. Staggering statistic yet there are no corners named after him. F1 should introduce an award for Engineer of the Year, or perhaps title it Young Engineer or Young Designer of the Year so Newey doesn't always win it. Call it the Newey award.
what should happen really is the fia should just hire him to design the next gen means of keep class close to each other.
Thanks DHCanary for a thoughtful and well researched post. One thing I took from the stats is that, when you think about good number twos, Massa, Barrichello, Bottas, Coulthard they are in the main one place behind their team leader. I have mixed feelings on Perez’s performance, on the one hand he’s done what he needed to do so far - he is second and RedBull has won the WCC. Every time his second place is under threat he seems to get it together and get a couple of second places to build the buffer back up. If his underperformance is coming for him searching for a way to beat Max and e.g. over experimenting on setup, making mistakes through pushing too hard, then as fans perhaps we shouldn’t criticise his performance too harshly and instead we should look at the fact that he is the only person to beat Max in a fight this year. Maybe he is capable of doing the classic number two role and just being solidly always one step behind Max, but is choosing not to. I find it hard to argue that he’s a considerably worse driver than any of the classic number twos above and so I don’t think it’s a case of him not being able to do what the team wants from him. If you look at that from the team’s point of view, he would be putting himself before the team. It’s not cost them this year, but the long win record would have been snapped much earlier on several occasions if misfortune or an error had put Verstappen out. I’ve done some work with F1 teams in the past and they are ruthlessly focussed competitive machines, every decision they make is viewed the prism of “will it improve us”. I believe they are looking at changing Perez, because that leads them to the answer “yes”. They don’t need a driver to push Verstappen, they need one to be Barrichello to his Schumacher. Alonso therefore isn’t a fit from either side. From Alonso’s perspective,I wonder if it’s really his best chance of a WDC to be in a RedBull, because that means he has to beat Verstappen across a whole season on even footing. He’s still driving really well, but he’s scrapped for championships before and knows how much energy that would take. F1 drivers have great self belief and I’m sure he’d give it a good try, but he’s also a smart and self aware guy and I’d be amazed if deep down he thinks he could still perform across a season as effectively as he did in the mid 2000’s. He also knows this isn’t going up a driver like Hamilton, who whilst fast has always been occasionally inconsistent and so is beatable by a good driver performing well, it’s a situation where he’d need to be perfect every weekend and it still might not be enough. On the other hand outside of RedBull he has the possibility of taking Max on, with an in built advantage at least on some weekends. It might be a small chance to get that, but Aston is a team who are developing fast. His level of performance of this year suggests that he could take advantage of a situation like that. Turning to Aston, I don’t get your logic. Lawson has done well in a few outings for sure, but it’s a small sample size - promoting Drugovich is probably no more of a risk. A Perez / Lawson pairing is most certainly the weakest of their likely competitors no matter how he develops next year. If Stroll goes and they want some certainty, then Alonso + Albon is probably very doable and likely as strong as any of their competitors as well as potentially being a good move for a post Alonso era. Gasly is perhaps another option, but one that I suspect has less long term potential.
Perez was a challenger for Max in one race at Baku, otherwise he's never been close in pace for three years. I seriously Red Bull were ever worried enough to feel the need to play politics If anything, i suspect the narrative of Checo being a contender at the beginning of the year has contributed to his current form by giving him some false hope to crush. He spoke himself about the effect losing from pole in Miami had on him. It's not really that shocking either to see a good driver suddenly driving really badly. Between Vettel in 2020, Ricciardo in 2022 and Perez now it seems to be becoming regular thing
I am reading rumours that if Lance goes, then his Dad will most likely go too, selling out to the Saudis ambition. Albon to Aston Martin, I doubt, he is learning from James at Williams. On Max and Perez, I don't think Max is that much better than some other drivers. I am not just referring to Lewis but both Mclaren drivers and I would add Sainz. Max happens to have a very good and reliable Newey designed car.
I enjoyed the detailed stats above. really good. I'm trying to think of a worse qualifier than perez. he's clearly got the absolute 100% best car for 2 years and aside from bottas who was on his way out I cannot think of anyone. perez has been in recovery mode all season. recovery drives are all well and good for the viewer but he's massively under performed in qualifying the first 5 races were fine, there was one disaster in there but 2 poles and 2 good positions.. since then he only performed at spa. everything else was way down.
Perez is average driver. No different to Bottas and Barrichello etc. Them 2 got smashed to bits by there teammates to. Love to see Alonso go to Red Bull he deserves it, probably not had a chance to race in the best car since 2007 lol
In 2022, the Mexican had scored 235 points at this point in the year whereas in 2023 that number is marginally worse at 224, a drop of just 11 points.
and the car is? red bull were good last year but ferrari were close for a half season until utter implosion. this year the car is utterly dominant, should be a half second up the road in quali and 30 seconds up the road in races. the fact he's regularly not making q3 let along being at least top 3 is poor.
The stats don’t really back this part up. RedBull have only been half a second up the road in qualifying on 6 occasions (excluding the one rain effected session where it was more like 1.5 over Hulkenberg, including Miami where it was a bit less but Verstappen didn’t set a time and including Qatar where track limits knocked out some fast times from competitors). Most of those have come recently and it’s clear when you look at the data that the RedBull has become a betting qualifying car relative to it’s competitors as the season has gone on, most of the early poles were less than two tenth margins. Given that the 30s race margin, which definitely has been present for the bulk of the season, seems to have been eroded a bit recently, I’m inclined to think that’s more the competition evolving towards a more race focused approach and losing some qualifying edge than anything changing on the Bulls, which have only been lightly developed this year.
