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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 30th. September 2023

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Sep 29, 2023.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Saturday's Meetings

    Longchamp
    Flat 6 Races 12:23-4:43p.m.
    Chester
    Flat 8 Races 1:30-5:28p.m.
    Newmarket
    Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:25p.m.
    Killarney
    Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:20p.m.
    Haydock
    Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:35p.m.
    Market Rasen
    N/H 7 Races 2:14-5:40p.m.
    Gowran Park
    N/H 7 Races 2:15-5:45p.m.
    Chelmsford(E)
    A/W 8 Races 4:57-8:30p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Sporting Life
    Racing Post


    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2023
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  2. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    2.58 Longchamp-Louis Quatorze

    Each Way @ 33-1 [Paddy Power] 4 places

    Will not be disgraced
     
    #2
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  3. You See

    You See Well-Known Member

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    Baez at chester on a 5 timer ! 5s available its a big step up to c2 but if they are going to do both it is tomorrow.
     
    #3
  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Newmarket
    15,40 Haunted Dream 20/1 e/w bet365 six places, 18/1 WH and Lads six places, 16/1 sky eight places

    Market Rasen
    15,55 Found On 14/1 e/w bet365 four places, 12/1 others three places
    Form after break: 12F2161PU
     
    #4
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  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    When is Andy Burnham going to sort out the rain in Manchester? <laugh> Haydock, once again, a write off at this time of year with soft/heavy ground.

    Two Group 1s at HQ but the Middle Park looks like one to avoid. The favourite Vandeek won the Prix Morny last time (River Tiber, Elite Status and Jasour behind) but has never raced on ground better than good to soft. River Tiber won the Coventry on good ground, so is more of a known prospect on today’s quick ground, something that also applies to surprise Gimcrack winner Lake Forest, who was able to come from the back off a fast pace at York. At a price I would rather gamble on unbeaten Task Force, who won the Ripon Two Year Old Trophy with a bit to spare but both his races have been on easy ground.

    Several of the fillies in the Cheveley Park have common form lines, making it easy to eliminate a few. The Dick Poole winner is a non runner but there is no reason to think that seventh Symbology will reverse running with third Soprano, especially since the latter blew the start. Jabaara has been running over further since her course and distance debut win but her form is not at this level and it is impossible to assess Shuangxi on her win in a five runner event on the Wolverhampton kitty litter. Persian Dreamer won the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes when last seen, overturning a Godolphin hotpot, but her fourth in the Albany puts her behind Soprano (third) and Porta Fortuna (winner). Sacred Angel made all to win the Princess Margaret (Symbology third) by three lengths and was fourth in the Prix Morny but may not get an uncontested lead here. Cherry Blossom was second in the Lowther to non runner Relief Rally (Symbology third) having made the running but was a well beaten second in the Goffs Million and that was just a week ago. French runner Jasna’s Secret is a conundrum as both her races have been at Deauville and she won a six runner sales race qualifier last time on soft ground. I am prepared to pass her over stepping up to Group 1 from that level. She’s Quality and Pearls And Rubies both contested the Moyglare last time on easy ground, where Porta Fortuna stayed on to dead heat for third over the seven furlongs. PORTA FORTUNA had previously been second at today’s trip in the Phoenix Stakes under today’s pilot so I am looking for her to return to the form of her Albany win, aided by the stiff finish at HQ.

    The opener at HQ is the Royal Lodge with nine currently set to line up. It looks fairly safe to gloss over outsider Son, well beaten twice at this level over seven furlongs and third in a Salisbury Listed race last time. Unless Jane Chapple-Hyam knows something that we do not, At Vimeiro is out of his depth based on a staying on fifth in a Doncaster maiden! Defiance won on debut, collaring Caviar Heights on the line, form that the re-opposing Balding colt franked losing his maiden tag making all at Goodwood. Oisin Murphy is in the plate again for Balding so will he be the pacesetter today? Ghostwriter made all last time at Ascot to remain unbeaten in two starts over seven furlongs and should give a good account stepping up to Group 2 level. Al Musmak won a Haydock Listed event on his latest start with favourite Macduff second having been outpaced. That suggests to me that Macduff may already want further. The two market principals both have pattern race form. Charlie Appleby’s Aablan won the Solario a month ago, just running down Inishfallen in the shadow of the post, to remain unbeaten and the betting in his races would suggest that he is well regarded at Moulton Paddocks. However, for me the form pick is CAPULET, who followed up a win on the Dundalk kitty litter with a half length second to odds-on stablemate Diego Velazquez in the Group 2 Champion Juvenile three weeks ago on quick ground at Leopardstown.

    A quick scan of the Longchamp Saturday card and the odds being offered by the British bookies has saved me the trouble of trawling through the form as I would not touch any of the British/Irish raiders at the prices on offer and the only ones I can see going close to winning are Trueshan in the Prix du Cadran (1:33) and Isaac Shelby in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (4:08).
     
    #5
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  6. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Only 6-runners for the Group-1 Prix du Cadran at Paris-Longchamp (13:33), a marathon trip over a distance just short of 2m4f on the forecast good-to-soft (?) ground. Was fully expecting it to be good going after all the dry days of late. Runners from the UK and Ireland dominate the race this year, but I'll go for Run For Oscar, a solid stayer with excellent form lines. Cristian Demuro rides for the yard of Irish trainer Charles Byrnes.

    9/2 seems to be the best price at time of writing, available in 6-places.

    Have an enjoyable and successful afternoon, folks! <bubbly>
     
    #6
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  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Not much time today but after a quick glance at Newmarket and Longchamp, I'm chancing my luck in the Cambridgeshire with the fav Greek Order at SP (can't stay at 7/2 surely) and Saga at 14/1 ew
     
    #7
  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    A decent renewal of the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Gowran Park (happy memories of Sizing Europe bossing this race in 4 consecutive seasons) with Envoi Allen taking on Easy Game (winner last year and 2020) and Gentlemansgame, with 3 rags completing the field. Envoi Allen is an uneasy favourite at around 10/11 and I think Easy Game is the one to beat here, the 3/1 still available in places looks excellent value. True that Easy Game here on the back of a complete no-show in the Galway Plate, but he's done that before and big-field handicap chases are just not his thing. He has won his last 8 chases against single figure fields (just those 2 Galway Plate blips spoiling his record in the last couple of years) and surely this will be tailor made for him again. Envoi Allen goes very well fresh and is respected but his odds are very cramped. Gentlemansgame is a very interesting runner but will surely need the run and a longer trip.
     
    #8
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Trueshan romps home in France
     
    #9
  10. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    That Baez is a real bitch at the starting stalls. Thought they were just a bit too patient with her.
     
    #10

  11. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Just a modest interest in Oviedo in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. Always an exciting race, if nothing else!
     
    #11
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  12. Sugarrush

    Sugarrush Active Member

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    Well done with Porto fortuna
     
    #12
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  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Glad to see Crisford (senior) not ruling out the Dewhurst for Vandeek. Can't believe trainers of yesteryear wouldn't have wanted to try such a fast finishing winner over a furlong further.
     
    #13
  14. GOLDBONES

    GOLDBONES Well-Known Member

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    Outstanding Pilgrim
     
    #14
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <applause>
     
    #15
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  16. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Shout, Oddy, good price at 3/1. <ok>
     
    #16
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  17. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Shout, Pilgrim, top form! <ok>
     
    #17
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  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Nice one Oddy, didn't see that one, being over the sticks in Ireland
     
    #18
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  19. Sugarrush

    Sugarrush Active Member

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    Great tipping from the forum regulars today take a bow Oddy Pilgrim and QM11
     
    #19
  20. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    In fairness, Ron, I thought that Greek Order was the lay of the day. Won two races with 10/12 runners and fairly raised 10lb for winning 4 lengths going away – a hold up horse with 33 running for the layer. Okay, so that is dead easy to say after the fact. Some crackpot will be along to claim 7/2, 3/1, 5/2 was a value price and it should have been 1/3. Oh, hang on, that idiot has not been back since Desert Crown won the Derby and he posted contradictory stuff on two forums to cover his bases; and of course Greek Order finished in the same position as odds on Manchester City on Saturday.

    Taking last year’s winner as a reliable marker, this year’s Cambridgeshire was not really a much better race as he came in fourth a little over a length behind the winner. The shape of the betting on the race was ridiculous with the second favourite 8/1, giving the impression that punters were just not very smart at Newmarket piling on the three year old good thing.
     
    #20

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